Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Treibhausgasemissionen zukünftiger Erdgasbereitstellung für Deutschland

Ohne Zusammenfassung Original erschienen in UWSF – Z Umweltchem ?kotox 20(2):133–144 (2008) DOI: Herausgeber: Martin Pehnt und Eckard Helmers     

Rapid growth of clones of the red alga Chondrus crispus: applications in assays of toxic substances and in physiological studies

Growth rates of excised apical segments from three Chondrus crispus Stackhouse clones were rapid, reproducible and easily measured using simple equipment. Clonal segments exhibited a high degree of phenotypic stability, with coefficients of variation in growth rates being typically less than 5%. Sensitivity of the assay was demonstrated using 24-h pulses of the toxicants Cu²⁺ (10 to 150 ppb) and the molluscicide Bayluscide (100 to 500 ppb). As a further demonstration of applicability of this assay system, growth rates were measured over two consecutive 24-h photoperiods using a normally pigmented red gametophytic clone and a green colored mutant derived from it. Growth rates were highest in the first hours of the light phase for both clones, with growth of the green mutant being consistently inferior to that of the normally pigmented one. Significant changes were measured with intervals as short as 4 h using only five apical segments for each treatment. The C. crispus assay described is sensitive, relatively rapid, and statistically robust when applied to toxicant testing in seawater and to physiological studies.     

Distribution of diatoms in the surficial sediments of the Mangyung-Dongjin tidal flat,west coast of Korea (Eastern Yellow Sea)

The relationship between the distribution of benthic diatoms and sediment characteristics of the Mangyung-Dongjin tidal flat on the west coast of Korea was investigated during June and July 1988. Diatoms were collected from the upper 5 mm of sediments at 60 sites along eight transect lines running perpendicular to the shore line. Of the 371 taxa encountered in the study area, 88% were pennate diatoms. Genera represented by the greatest number of species were Navicula, Nitzschia, Amphora, Cocconeis, Fragilaria and Achnanthes. The most abundant species were Paralia sulcata, Navicula sp. #1, N. arenaria and Cymatosira belgica; all were broadly distributed across the tidal flats. The 60 sites could be assigned to eight clusters with respect to similarity in species composition. Discriminant analysis showed that separation cluster was primarily related to the mean grain size of the sediment. The species could not be separated into groups based on similarities in occurrence; a high degree of spatial overlap was observed. The preferences of the more abundant species for grain size were, therefore, analysed by plotting numerical abundance against mean grain size. There were at least four patterns: species groups could be associated with finegrained sediments, those of intermediate size and coarser sediments and the last group showed no discernible pattern.     

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations in Methyl Mercury Concentrations in Zooplankton from Boreal Lakes Impacted by Deforestation or Natural Forest Fires

We compared the effects of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances on methyl mercury (MeHg) concentration in bulk zooplankton from boreal Shield lakes. MeHg in zooplankton was monitored for three years in nine lakes impacted by deforestation, in nine lakes impacted by wildfire, and in twenty lakes with undisturbed catchments. Lakes were sampled during spring, mid- and late summer. MeHg in zooplankton showed a seasonal trend: concentrations were the lowest in spring, then peaked in mid-summer and decreased in late summer. Over the three study years, MeHg concentrations observed in mid-summer in zooplankton from forest harvested lakes were significantly higher than in reference and fire-impacted lakes, whereas differences between these two groups of lakes were not significant. The pattern of distribution of MeHg in zooplankton during the different seasons paralleled that of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is known as a vector of Hg from watershed soils to lake water. Besides DOC, MeHg in zooplankton also showed a positive significant correlation with epilimnetic temperature and sulfate concentrations. An inter-annual decreasing trend in MeHg was observed in zooplankton from reference and fire-impacted lakes. In forest harvested lakes, however, MeHg concentrations remained higher and nearly constant over three years following the impact. Overall these results indicate that the MeHg pulse observed in zooplankton following deforestation by harvesting is relatively long-lived, and may have repercussions to the accumulation of MeHg along the food chain. Therefore, potential effects of deforestation on the Hg contamination of fish should be taken into account in forest management practices.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Molecular taxonomy of vestimentiferans of the western Pacific and their phylogenetic relationship to species of the eastern Pacific

The nucleotide sequence of part (624 bp) of a mitochondrial gene for cytochrome oxidase I was determined for 46 escarpiid vestimentiferans collected from seven sites in the western Pacific and 49 individual specimens of Arcovestia ivanovi from two sites in the Manus Basin. Phylogenetic analysis, based on the newly obtained and previously reported sequences, indicated that escarpiids in the western Pacific can be divided into two tentative species, as we proposed in a previous report. While members of the first tentative species have been collected exclusively from a seep area at a depth of 300 m off the coast of central Japan, the members of the second species inhabit some sites at depths greater than 1,100 m, namely, seep areas in Japanese and Papua-New Guinean waters as well as hydrothermal vent fields in the Okinawa Trough and the Manus Basin. We detected no genetic structure among populations of the second tentative species. The first tentative species was more closely related to a species in the eastern Pacific, Escarpia spicata, and to a species in the Gulf of Mexico, Escarpia laminata, than to the second tentative species in the western Pacific. Sequences obtained from all arcovestiids were identical with the exception of those from three individuals, each of which included a single synonymous nucleotide substitution relative to the dominant haplotype, and no genetic differences were detected between specimens from the two sites in the Manus Basin.