小流域综合治理新设计研究——猪沼果模式

近年来,小流域综合治理的主旨思想改变了,其工作重心在于巩固和发展治理开发的成果,提升综合治理的科技含量,增加治理带来的经济效益。于是将小流域的治理与生产联系起来成为了当前科研人员的研究方向。文章对目前部分地区大力推广的"猪-沼-果"模式在小流域治理方面的概念、发展及综合效益等方面做了一些综述。总的来说,猪沼果模式能够增加农村的能源,增加农民收入,并保护绿植,促进小流域治理。     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

安徽省淮河流域水污染分析与环境目标可达性探讨

介绍了安徽省淮河流域水污染的历史与现状,分析了淮河流域水污染的特点,对实现《淮河流域水污染防治“十五”计划》的可能性进行了探讨。     

锌、铝的激光-时间分辨荧光测定

本文报道了以７碘８羟基喹啉５磺酸作荧光增强剂的Ｚｎ、Ａｌ激光时间分辨荧光测定方法。方法检出限分别为２５μｇ／Ｌ和１０μｇ／Ｌ。用牛肝粉标准品（ＮＢＳ１５７７ａ）进行了验证     

Mathematical balance models for monitoring the state of Lake Baikal

The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

气相色谱-质谱法测定废酸油渣中的16种多环芳烃

建立了废酸油渣中16种多环芳烃超声萃取、Florisil萃取柱净化、气相色谱-质谱测定的方法。笔者对提取方式、提取剂类型和体积、提取时间和次数、净化方式等进行研究,采用无水硫酸钠分散,二氯甲烷作为提取剂超声40 min,提取液经纯水清洗、离心后取适量有机相经过3 g Florisil萃取柱净化,采用气相色谱-质谱选择离子模式(SIM),加入内标进行定量分析。结果表明:二氯甲烷提取效率比正己烷好,丙酮可能引起酸性样品中多环芳烃的降解,丙酮超声萃取时加入无水硫酸钠能在一定程度上防止目标物降解,但萃取效率不可控制,宜采用二氯甲烷作为萃取剂。分散提取能有效减少提取时间,超声清洗仪超声40 min提取效率为86.2%～104%。3g Florisil萃取柱净化比1 g Florisil萃取柱净化和GPC净化效果略好。方法检出限为0.4～1.3 mg/kg,6次空白加标的相对标准偏差为2.3%～15.3%,6个实际样品测定结果的相对标准偏差为1.2%～27.3%,基体加标回收率为51.3%～126%,连续校准稳定。该方法适用于废酸油渣样品中16种多环芳烃的检测,比直接溶解有效,比加速溶剂萃取、索氏提取、微波萃取和超声探头萃取简单、快捷,能有效减少设备污染和腐蚀,净化方法有效,测定结果准确可靠,是实现大批量样品检测的可行方法。     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

上海汽车制造业涂装废气VOCs排放特征

于2015年10月对上海市嘉定区4家(A、B、C、D)汽车制造企业涂装废气ρ(VOCs)和组成特征进行了调查分析。结果表明,A、B、C、D厂涂装废气排放口ρ(VOCs)总为0. 743～6. 11 mg/m~3,主要检出物和最高检出值分别为:A厂二甲苯2. 06 mg/m~3、B厂二甲苯0. 578 mg/m~3、C厂甲苯2. 59 mg/m~3、D厂庚烷0. 274 mg/m~3;芳香烃类是A、B、C厂排放比例最高的VOCs组分,烷烃类是D厂排放比例最高的VOCs组分。指出,原、辅料种类影响排放物的主要成分,废气处理工艺类型影响排放物主要成分和浓度。     

“引江济太”对太湖北部底质及水质总磷的影响

应用GIS技术研究了"引江济太"对太湖北部底质与水质总磷(TP)浓度的影响。研究结果表明,2014—2019年,调水北部沿线4个点位底质TP浓度降幅为59.8%～80.5%;不同点位的水质TP浓度变化存在差异,入湖口点位下降14.1%,沿线其他点位分别上升37.4%、38.6%和45.0%。从空间分布来看,太湖水质TP始终呈明显的"西高东低"分布特点,但底质TP的分布未显示出该类规律。望亭水利枢纽调水情况与入湖口5#点位底质TP浓度呈一定程度的正相关,在调水入湖水量大于出湖水量的年份,5#点位底质TP浓度会偏高。"引江济太"会对太湖北部调水沿线,特别是入湖口附近水域的TP含量产生较大影响,并通过水流迁移与底质再悬浮释放影响下游水域。如何降低望虞河及周边支流的入湖泥沙量将是今后开展科学调水、保障贡湖水源地水质安全的重点研究方向之一。