Random denominators and the analysis of ratio data

Ratio data, observations in which one random value is divided by another random value, present unique analytical challenges. The best statistical technique varies depending on the unit on which the inference is based. We present three environmental case studies where ratios are used to compare two groups, and we provide three parametric models from which to simulate ratio data. The models describe situations in which (1) the numerator variance and mean are proportional to the denominator, (2) the numerator mean is proportional to the denominator but its variance is proportional to a quadratic function of the denominator and (3) the numerator and denominator are independent. We compared standard approaches for drawing inference about differences between two distributions of ratios: t-tests, t-tests with transformations, permutation tests, the Wilcoxon rank test, and ANCOVA-based tests. Comparisons between tests were based both on achieving the specified alpha-level and on statistical power. The tests performed comparably with a few notable exceptions. We developed simple guidelines for choosing a test based on the unit of inference and relationship between the numerator and denominator.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Group structure in a restricted entry system is mediated by both resident and joiner preferences

The benefits of grouping behaviour may not be equally distributed across all individuals within a group, leading to conflict over group membership among established group members, and between residents and outsiders attempting to join a group. Although the interaction between the preferences of joining individuals and existing group members may exert considerable pressure on group structure, empirical work on group living to date has focussed on free entry groups, in which all individuals are permitted entry. Using the humbug damselfish, Dascyllus aruanus, we examined a restricted entry grouping system, in which group residents control membership by aggressively rejecting potential new members. We found that the preferences shown by joining members were not always aligned with strategies that incurred the least harm from resident group members, suggesting a conflict between the preferences of residents and preferences of group joiners. Solitary fish preferred to join familiar groups and groups of size-matched residents. Residents were less aggressive towards familiar group joiners. However, resident aggression towards unfamiliar individuals depended on the size of the joining individual, the size of the resident and the composition of the group. These results demonstrate that animal group structure is mediated by both the preferences of joining individuals and the preferences of residents.     

Social facilitation of exploration in mosquitofish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gambusia holbrooki</Emphasis>)

The social environment can exert a powerful influence on the expression of an individual’s behaviour patterns. For example, social facilitation occurs where individuals are more likely to express a given behaviour, or express it a greater rate, in the presence of conspecifics. Social facilitation is partly driven by an individual’s perception of risk, which is a function both of the size of its social group and the information that it gathers relating to predator activity and risk. Here I tested the effects of social group size (one, two, four, eight or 16 fish) and the presence of ‘social’, ‘predation’ or ‘neutral’ chemical cues (derived respectively from live conspecifics, injured conspecifics or a blank water control) on the exploratory behaviour of juvenile mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) in a novel environment. Focal fish in larger groups explored a greater proportion of the arena during the course of the experiment, demonstrating social facilitation of exploration. After 4 h in the arena, focal fish in all group sizes showed significantly reduced swimming activity, suggesting that the initial faster swimming activity of fish on entry to the arena may be in response to the motivation to explore. The presence of predation cues in the environment had the effect of reducing exploratory behaviour across groups in a novel environment, whereas social cues had no effect on exploratory behaviour. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that there is a high degree of context dependency in the expression of exploratory behaviour, with a strong influence of both the presence of conspecifics and cues relating to potential danger.     

The Influence of Varying Planktonic and Periphytic Algal Biomass On Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Mesocosms

Algal populations, either suspended in the water column (planktonic) or present on the walls of an enclosure (periphytic), develop differently depending upon the physical scale of the system. This study determined whether these variations altered the speciation and therefore exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in estuarine mesocosms. Exposure was defined as the fraction of applied contaminant taken up by plankton after two hours. Using a three phase equilibrium model, the partitioning of a suite of PCBs within variously-sized mesocosms was predicted using laboratory derived distribution coefficients and measured levels of planktonic and periphytic algal biomass. in mesocosms having large wall surface area to volume ratios, sorption of hydrophobic PCBs to periphyton significantly decreased contaminant exposure. However, within the range of planktonic algal biomasses observed in this study, the regulation of PCB exposure was relatively invariant between variously-sized mesocosms. to minimize sorption of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) to periphyton and reduce artefacts inherent with this partitioning, we suggest using mesocosms with low wall surface area to volume ratios (less than or equal to 1). in addition, periphytic biomass should be quantified regularly and a three-phase equilibrium approach used to predict the actual exposure concentrations.     

CAERvest® – a novel endothermic hypothermic device for core temperature cooling: safety and efficacy testing

Introduction. Cooling of the body is used to treat hyperthermic individuals with heatstroke or to depress core temperature below normal for neuroprotection. A novel, chemically activated, unpowered cooling device, CAERvest®, was investigated for safety and efficacy. Methods. Eight healthy male participants (body mass 79.9?±?1.9?kg and body fat percentage 16.1?±?3.8%) visited the laboratory (20 °C, 40% relative humidity) on four occasions. Following 30-min rest, physiological and perceptual measures were recorded. Participants were then fitted with the CAERvest® proof of concept (PoC) or prototype 1 (P1), 2 (P2) or 3 (P3) for 60 min. Temperature, cardiovascular and perceptual measures were recorded every 5 min. After cooling, the CAERvest® was removed and the torso checked for cold-related injuries. Results. Temperature measures significantly (p?Conclusion. This study demonstrates that the CAERvest® is an effective device for reducing body temperature in healthy normothermic individuals without presence of cold injury. Further research in healthy and clinical populations is warranted.     

Lumbar Bone Mineral Density Phantomless Computed Tomography Measurements and Correlation with Age and Fracture Incidence

Objective: Low bone quality is a contributing factor to motor vehicle crash (MVC) injury. Quantification of occupant bone mineral density (BMD) is important from an injury causation standpoint. The first aim of this study was to validate a technique for measuring lumbar volumetric BMD (vBMD) from phantomless computed tomography (CT) scans. The second aim was to apply the validated phantomless technique to quantify lumbar vBMD in Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) occupants for correlation with age, fracture incidence, and osteopenia/osteoporosis diagnoses.

Methods: Quantitative CT (qCT) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were collected prospectively for 50 subjects and used to validate a technique to measure vBMD from 281 phantomless CT scans of CIREN occupants. Hounsfield unit (HU) measurements were collected from the L1–L5 vertebrae, right psoas major muscle, and anterior subcutaneous fat for all subjects and from 3 phantom ports with known mg/cc calcium hydroxyapatite values for the validation group. qCT calibration was accomplished using regressions between the phantom HU and mg/cc values to convert L1–L5 HU values to mg/cc. A phantomless calibration technique was developed where the fat and muscle HU values were linearly regressed against fat (?69 mg/cc) and muscle (77 mg/cc) to establish a conversion for L1–L5 HU measurements to mg/cc. vBMD calculated from qCT versus the phantomless method was compared for the 50 subjects to assess agreement and a mg/cc osteopenia threshold was established using DXA T-scores. CIREN HU measurements were converted to mg/cc using the phantomless technique and the mg/cc osteopenia threshold was used to compare vBMD to age, fracture incidence, and osteopenia comorbidity classifications in CIREN.

Results: Linear regression of lumbar vBMD derived from the qCT versus phantomless calibrations showed excellent agreement (R² = 0.87, P <.0001). A 145 mg/cc threshold for osteopenia was established (sensitivity = 1, specificity = 0.57) and 44 CIREN occupants had vBMD below this threshold. Of these 44 occupants, 64% were not classified as osteopenic in CIREN, but vBMD suggested undiagnosed osteopenia. Age was negatively correlated with vBMD in both sexes (P <.0001) and CIREN occupants with less than 145 mg/cc vBMD sustained an average 1.7 additional rib/sternum fractures (P =.036).

Conclusions: Because lumbar vBMD was estimated from phantomless CT scans with accuracy similar to qCT, the phantomless technique can be broadly applied to both prospectively and retrospectively assess patient bone quality for research and clinical studies related to MVCs, falls, and aging.     

Collaborative Implementation for Ecological Restoration on US Public Lands: Implications for Legal Context,Accountability, and Adaptive Management

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP), established in 2009, encourages collaborative landscape scale ecosystem restoration efforts on United States Forest Service (USFS) lands. Although the USFS employees have experience engaging in collaborative planning, CFLRP requires collaboration in implementation, a domain where little prior experience can be drawn on for guidance. The purpose of this research is to identify the ways in which CFLRP’s collaborative participants and agency personnel conceptualize how stakeholders can contribute to implementation on landscape scale restoration projects, and to build theory on dynamics of collaborative implementation in environmental management. This research uses a grounded theory methodology to explore collaborative implementation from the perspectives and experiences of participants in landscapes selected as part of the CFLRP in 2010. Interviewees characterized collaborative implementation as encompassing three different types of activities: prioritization, enhancing treatments, and multiparty monitoring. The paper describes examples of activities in each of these categories and then identifies ways in which collaborative implementation in the context of CFLRP (1) is both hindered and enabled by overlapping legal mandates about agency collaboration, (2) creates opportunities for expanded accountability through informal and relational means, and, (3) creates feedback loops at multiple temporal and spatial scales through which monitoring information, prioritization, and implementation actions shape restoration work both within and across projects throughout the landscape creating more robust opportunities for adaptive management.