Study of the Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in the Upstream Portion of the Cau River Basin,Vietnam

This paper presents simulations of climate change impacts on water quality in the upstream portion of the Cau River Basin in the North of Vietnam. The integrated modeling system GIBSI was used to simulate hydrological processes, pollutant and sediment wash-off in the river basin, and pollutant transport and transformation in the river network. Three projections for climate change based on emission scenarios B1, B2, and A2 of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were considered. By assuming that the input pollution sources and watershed configuration were constant, based on 2008 data, water quality in the river network was simulated up to the terminal year 2050. For each climate change scenario, patterns of precipitation in wet and dry year were considered. The change in annual and monthly trends for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and ammonium ions (NH4+) load and concentration for different portions of the watershed have been analyzed. The results of these simulations show that climate change has more impact on changing the seasonal water quality parameters than on altering the average annual load of the pollutants. The percent change and change pattern in water quality parameters are different for wet and dry year, and the changes in wet year are smaller than those in dry year.     

Can non-breeding be a cost of breeding dispersal?

Breeding habitat selection and dispersal are crucial processes that affect many components of fitness. Breeding dispersal entails costs, one of which has been neglected: dispersing animals may miss breeding opportunities because breeding dispersal requires finding a new nesting site and mate, two time- and energy-consuming activities. Dispersers are expected to be prone to non-breeding. We used the kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) to test whether breeding dispersal influences breeding probability. Breeding probability was associated with dispersal, in that both were negatively influenced by private information (previous individual reproductive success) and public information (average reproductive success of conspecifics) about patch quality. Furthermore, the probability of skipping breeding was 1.7 times higher in birds that settled in a new patch relative to those that remained on the same patch. Finally, non-breeders that resumed breeding were 4.4 times more likely to disperse than birds that bred in successive years. Although private information may influence breeding probability directly, the link between breeding probability and public information may be indirect, through the influence of public information on breeding dispersal, non-breeding thus being a cost of dispersal. These results support the hypothesis that dispersal may result in not being able to breed. More generally, non-breeding (which can be interpreted as an extreme form of breeding failure) may reveal costs of various previous activities. Because monitoring the non-breeding portion of a population is difficult, non-breeders have been neglected in many studies of reproduction trade-offs.     

European collaborative study on prenatal diagnosis: Mosaicism,pseudomosaicism and single abnormal cells in amniotic fluid cell cultures

A report is given of the results of a European collaborative study on mosaicism, pseudomosaicism and single abnormal cells in amniotic fluid cell cultures. The mean frequency of cases with mosaicism was 0.10 per cent, with pseudomosaicism 0.64 per cent and with single abnormal cells 2.83 per cent in a series of 44 170 amniotic fluid samples. There was no significant difference between the colony (in situ) and the flask method with regard to the frequency of mosaicism. Pseudomosaicism and single abnormal cells were more frequent in cases studied with the flask method probably due to other factors than the method of cultivation of the cells. The frequency of maternal cell contamination was 0.17 per cent and the frequency of wrong sex assignment was 0.11 per cent. A more correct estimation is obtained if these frequencies are doubled. There was a considerable variation between laboratories with regard to the frequencies given above. One reason for this variation is that there are no sharp limits between mosaicism, pseudomosaicism and single abnormal cells. Thus the material contained cases diagnosed as having pseudomosaicism which turned out to be mosaics at birth and to have an abnormal phenotype. These cases were very rare but pose a definite problem in prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis.     

Characterization of metal aerosols in PM10 from urban, industrial, and Asian Dust sources

Metallic elements (As, Be, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Fe, K, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Zn) in PM10 aerosols were determined at urban and industrial sites, which are affected by traffic and residential sources, metallurgical activity, and petrochemical and steel works. The effect of the long-range transported Asian Dust on the metal content of aerosols was also examined. At the urban sampling site, concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Se, and Zn were assigned to road traffic and combustion sources, Ca and Fe to soil dust sources from long-range transported Asian Dusts, and Cr and Ni to metallurgical sources transported from the nearby industrial complex, based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Enhanced Cr and Ni concentrations at the metallurgical industrial site suggest that local emissions from metal-assembly facilities and manufacture of alloys contributed to elevated levels of those metals. We also observed that petrochemical activities contributed to increased levels of Sb and Zn. When Asian Dust events occurred, Ca, Fe, K, and Zn concentrations dramatically increased compared to values without the Asian Dust. Two different types of Asian Dust events were observed. For the Asian Dust event 1 (4/1/2007), the Fe and K concentrations were much higher by a factor of 2–3 than those for the Asian Dust event 2 (3/2/2008), while As, Mn, and Zn concentrations were significantly higher on the Asian Dust event 2. Backward trajectory analysis showed that for the Asian Dust event 2, the air mass had passed over the heavily industrialized zones in China during long-range transport to the current sampling site, suggesting that the As, Mn, and Zn may have originated from industrial sources.     

Assessment and monitoring of nutrient loading in the sediments of tidal creeks receiving shrimp farm effluent in Quang Ninh, Vietnam

Coastal shrimp farming may lead to the contamination of sediments of surrounding estuarine and marine ecosystems as shrimp farm effluent often contains high levels of pollutants including a range of organic compounds (from uneaten feed, shrimp feces, and living and dead organisms) which can accumulate in the sediments of receiving waterways. The assessment and monitoring of sediment quality in tidal creeks receiving shrimp farm effluent can support environmental protection and decision making for sustainable development in coastal areas since sediment quality often shows essential information on long-term aquatic ecosystem health. Within this context, this paper investigates nutrient loadings in the sediments of tidal creeks receiving shrimp farm effluent in Quang Ninh, Vietnam, which now have a high concentration of intensive and semi-intensive shrimp farms. Sediment samples taken from inside creek sections directly receiving effluent from concentrated shrimp farms (IEC), from main creeks adjacent to points of effluent discharge outside concentrated shrimp farms (OEC), and few kilometers away from shrimp farms (ASF) as reference sites were collected and analyzed before and after shrimp crops to investigate spatial and temporal variation. The results showed that there were statistically significant differences in the concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon among IEC, OEC, and ASF sites while the seasonal variation being limited over study times. A sediment nutrient index (SNI) computed from coefficient scores of the factor analysis efficiently summarizes sediment nutrient loads, which are high, albeit quite variable, in canals directly receiving effluents from farms but then decline sharply with distance from shrimp farms. The visualization and monitoring of sediment quality data including SNI on maps can strongly support managers to manage eutrophication at concentrated shrimp farming areas, contributing to sustainable development and management at coastal zones.     

Land use Systems and Erosion in the Uplands of the Central Coast, Vietnam

Soil erosion is a significant problem in the uplands of the Central Coast, Vietnam. It affects the livelihood of farmers and could hinder the long-term economic development efforts in the uplands. Yet, trapped in poverty, upland farmers, especially the ethnic minority, are still mining the soil using erosive land use systems to meet their urgent needs. This study demonstrates that the level of soil erosion varies across the typical land use systems. The fruit tree-based agroforestry (AF) system is least erosive and most financially profitable. The choice of land use system is influenced by farmers' attributes, land plot characteristics, and policy-related variables. The set of policy variables is important in explaining land use choice by upland farmers. Promoting the switch to AF system and the adoption of soil conservation is of great importance to reducing soil erosion and sustaining development in the uplands. However, it is a very challenging task.     

Accuracy improvement of various short-term load forecasting models by a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method

ABSTRACT

Time-series and machine-learning methods are being strongly exploited to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) results. In developing countries, power consumption behaviors could be suddenly changed by different customers, e.g. industrial customers, residential customers, so the load-demand dataset is often unstable. Therefore, reliability assessment of the load-demand dataset is obviously necessary for STLF models. Hence, this paper proposes a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method with the best confidence interval to eliminate unexpected noises/outliers of the input dataset before performing various short-term load forecasting models. This proposed novel data-filtering method, so-called the data pre-processing method, is also compared to other existing data-filtering methods (e.g. Kalman filter, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise, Wavelet transform, and Singular Spectrum Analysis). By using an SCADA system?-based database of a typical 22kV distribution network in Vietnam, NYISO database, and PJM-RTO database, case studies of short-term load forecasting have been conducted with a conventional ARIMA model, an ANN forecasting model, an LSTM-RNN model, an LSTM-CNN combined model, a deep auto-encoder (DAE) network, a Wavenet-based model, a Wavenet and LSTM hybrid model, and a Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) model, which are to validate the novel and unified statistical data-filtering method proposed. The achieved numerical results demonstrate which the accuracy of the aforementioned STLF models can be significantly improved due to the proposed statistical data-filtering method with the best confidence interval of the input load dataset. The proposed statistical data-filtering method can considerably outperform the existing data-filtering methods.     

‘Tolerable’ hillslope soil erosion rates in Australia: Linking science and policy

This paper reviews water-borne soil erosion in Australia in the context of current environmental policy needs. Sustainability has emerged as a central tenet of environmental policy in Australia and water-borne hillslope soil erosion rates are used as one of the indicators of agricultural sustainability in State of the Environment reporting. We review attempts to quantify hillslope erosion rates over Australia and we identify areas at risk of exceeding natural baseline rates. We also review historical definitions of sustainable, or ‘tolerable’ erosion rates, and how to set these rates. There are many ways to estimate hillslope erosion and these can create confusing results. Moreover their application for land management purposes requires nuanced interpretations that ultimately depend on the desired objective of decision-makers. Soil is the earth surficial material that serves as a medium for plant growth and the notion of tolerable soil erosion arose historically to assess the impact of soil loss on agricultural uses. However now that the impact of erosion on aquatic ecosystems been recognized as a major concern for Australia, the concept of tolerable erosion needs to be revised. Here we discuss three definitions of tolerable soil erosion, following recent literature. We derive estimates of long-term agricultural sustainability based on natural soil production rates and discuss this in relation to other defined land-management objectives such as aquatic ecosystem health. We conclude that the desired objectives of land managers must be clearly articulated before questions of ‘where to invest to control erosion’ and ‘how to assess return-on-investment’ can be answered.     

Occurrence of tributyltin (TBT)-resistant bacteria is not related to TBT pollution in Mekong River and coastal sediment: with a hypothesis of selective pressure from suspended solid

Tributyltin (TBT) is organotin compound that is toxic to aquatic life ranging from bacteria to mammals. This study examined the concentration of TBT in sediment from and near the Mekong River and the distribution of TBT-resistant bacteria. TBT concentrations ranged from <2.4 to 2.4 ng/g (dry wt) in river sediment and <2.4-15 ng g(-1) (dry wt) in harbor sediment. Viable count of total bacteria ranged from 2.0 x 10(4) to 1.4 x 10(7)cfu/g, and counts of TBT-resistant bacteria ranged <1.0 x 10(2) to 2.5 x 10(4)cfu/g. The estimated occurrence rate of TBT-resistant bacteria ranged from <0.01 to 34% and was highest in upstream sites in Cambodia. The occurrences of TBT in the sediment and of TBT-resistant bacteria were unrelated, and chemicals other than TBT might induce TBT resistance. TBT-resistant bacteria were more abundant in the dry season than in the rainy season. Differences in the selection process of TBT-resistant bacteria between dry and rainy seasons were examined using an advection-diffusion model of a suspended solid (SS) that conveys chemicals. The estimated dilution-diffusion time over a distance of 120 km downstream from a release site was 20 days during dry season and 5 days during rainy season, suggesting that bacteria at the sediment surface could be exposed to SS for longer periods during dry season.