Bridging information domains to improve ecological understanding of biological invasions in a marine ecosystem

We devised a practical method for integrating information on 2 marine invasive species using 3 different approaches: standardized ecological monitoring, online-reporting databases, and surveys of anglers and crabbers. Focusing on 2 recently introduced species with different characteristics, the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) and Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), in the Hudson-Raritan watershed of New York and New Jersey, we used sensitivity analyses to explore the relative contribution of each information source to knowledge of species abundance and distribution. All 3 information sources contributed something unique to understanding abundance and distribution of the introduced crabs. Online and survey data on Asian shore crabs significantly affected predictions of abundance, whereas monitoring data did not. When survey data were omitted, abundance estimates were unchanged over time, but when they were included, the model predicted an increased abundance in 2012. All 3 data sets for the Asian shore crab significantly affected estimates of species coverage; surveys had the biggest influence, increasing range size by 4097.25 km². For the catadromous Chinese mitten crab, ecological monitoring data collected in freshwater shortly after the original sighting significantly shaped model estimates for abundance and documented the establishment phase of the mitten crab in an area outside the spatial scope of the surveyed resource users. However, the survey data significantly enlarged mitten crab range-size estimates by 6498.01 km². By demonstrating that data integration produced an image of the invasion process that would not have emerged had we used any 1 method individually, model results provide evidence for the advantages of an interdisciplinary approach.     

Global justice and the opportunity costs of conservation

Opportunity costs can represent a significant portion of the costs associated with conservation projects and frequently outstrip other kinds of cost. They are typically understood to refer to the benefits someone would have obtained if conservation projects had not required them to give up current activities, such as farming or hunting or if the land had been available for uses other than conservation. This familiar way of identifying opportunity costs is flawed, however, because it threatens to condone, or take advantage of, the injustices that many people face that affect their opportunities. I integrated ideas from the political theory of global justice to examine how the analysis of opportunity costs illustrates the importance of considering conservation and issues of global justice together, rather than thinking about them in isolation. I distinguish four baselines for defining opportunity costs. A status quo baseline defines opportunity costs by asking what people would have earned had a conservation project not happened. A willingness to accept baseline defines them by asking people what it would take to make them indifferent to whether a conservation project takes place or not. An antipoverty baseline suggests that opportunity costs have been met when people affected by a project are not left in poverty. An egalitarian baseline suggests opportunity costs have been met when people are not left in relative disadvantage, with worse than average opportunities. I argue that the egalitarian baseline is the most acceptable from the point of view of justice. Such a baseline would suggest that, in practice, many of the world's poor are being unjustly treated, or even exploited, as a result of conservation activities.     

Correlation between nectar supply and aggression in territorial honeyeaters: causation or coincidence?

Summary A fundamental prediction of food-based economic models of territoriality is that animals will not defend territories if food is so abundant that defense will not improve access to food. Several studies of nectar-feeding birds support this prediction, with territoriality being rare or absent in years when nectar was particularly abundant. However, these results could potentially be an artefact of changes in bird density with nectar availability, and in at least some cases the correlations between territory defense and nectar availability could be purely coincidental. This paper reports the first experimental test of whether cessation of territory defense in nectar-feeding birds results from a direct response to abundance of nectar. New holland honeyeaters Phylidonyris novaehollandiae and white-cheeked honeyeaters P. nigra show pronounced changes in their levels of territorial aggression over the 7–8 months that they breed. These changes are predictable from economic considerations in that the birds are least aggressive in the months when nectar is extremely abundant. I tested whether the birds were responding to changes in nectar availability by providing sugar-water feeders at neutral locations that were easily accessible to territory holders, but far enough away from territories that intrusion rates were unaffected. I tested for responses at two time scales feeders were put out for 48-h periods in 1987, and were left out continuously from January to October 1988. The only effect was that territory holders visited feeders instead of flowers when floral nectar was scarce. They continued to defend their territories aggressively at those times, showed seasonal changes in aggressiveness similar to birds on a site without feeders, and did not shift their territories toward feeders. I conclude that the observed changes in aggressiveness are not responses to changes in nectar availability, and suggest alternative explanations.     

Analysis of the migration of instantaneously injected cesium in artificial fractures of Lac du Bonnet granite, Manitoba, Canada

Breakthrough curves of ¹³⁷Cs and tritiated water injected instantaneously into artificial fractures in Lac du Bonnet granite were analyzed using the analytical solution for a single rock-fracture system and assuming the linear sorption isotherm of the solute. Parameters of nuclide diffusion and sorption in rock matrices, obtained by fitting, varied depending on the flow velocity in the fractures. According to theoretical calculations, different fracture flow velocities lead to different diffusion distances of nuclides in matrices at the same injection volume. As microscopic inhomogeneity is considered to exist in the rock matrix, the average diffusion-sorption characteristics of the matrix within the diffusion distance may have varied with the fracture flow velocity. Surface sorption was marked in fractures that had relatively high matrix sorption-diffusion capacities. The phenomenon was interpreted using the theoretical relationships developed between the surface sorption, matrix sorption and pore diffusion coefficient, and the porosity of matrices.The effect of the nonlinear sorption of solute was examined by numerically solving model equations that incorporate the nonlinear isotherm. This incorporation may contribute to the reduction of deviations between theoretical and experimental BTC's.     

Improved light extinction reconstruction in interagency monitoring of protected visual environments

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Regional Haze Rule (RHR) in 1999. The RHR default goal is to reduce haze linearly from the baseline period of 2000 through 2004 to natural background in 2064. EPA-recommended method for estimating baseline and natural haze uses the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) light extinction formula. The IMPROVE formula predicts light extinction from measured aerosol chemical concentrations and estimates of the relative humidity multiplier. On average, the IMPROVE formula overpredicts 6156 nephelometer days (24-hr average measured particle light scattering, bsp) of data by 25%. A new IMPROVED method that reconstructs light extinction using a concentration power law model overpredicts these nephelometer days of data by just 2%. Ignoring the 20% lowest light scattering days, this new IMPROVED formula has a 3% underprediction bias over the 4925 highest nephelometer days with light scattering > or =8 inverse megameters. For comparison, the IMPROVE formula has a 12% overprediction bias for the same days. The IMPROVE formula overprediction averages 77%, 27%, 17%, 9%, and -5% broken down by quintile from lowest to highest nephelometer measured light scattering days. The new IMPROVED formula average overprediction is 21%, -5%, -5%, -2%, and 0%. So, agreement between measured and predicted light scattering improves by modifying the current IMPROVE light extinction formula.     

A boundary value approach for estuarine water quality modelling with results for Jamaica Bay,New York

Results of water quality modelling for Jamaica Bay, a New York estuary with a large hydraulic circulation, are presented. The two-dimensional topology is approximated by a set of coupled one-dimensional subsystems. The long term steady state water quality problem is then reformulated as a multi-point boundary value problem for ordinary differential equations. Piecewise constant dispersion parameters are estimated from salinity data.A sequential algorithm based on parallel shooting is developed for solving the multipoint problem. The method, which simplifies handling of feedforward and feedback reaction kinetics, is equivalent to employing a high order finite difference technique with the subsequent enhanced accuracy.Results of model verification for uncoupled variables — salinity, coliform, total soluble phosphorus, and coupled variables for nitrogen (organic and ammonia) and BOD-DO for Jamaica Bay are discussed.     

Risk-taking by female ducks: intra- and interspecific tests of nest defense theory

We tested several predictions of nest defense theory by observing variation in flushing distance and probability of nest abandonment within and between six species of waterfowl. In these species, only the females incubate eggs and attend offspring. First, we examined whether flushing distance by females varied in relation to clutch size, stage of incubation, and time of season, after controlling for the number of visits made to nests by observers. Revisits by observers appeared to affect flushing distance by females for reasons unrelated to the relative value of the current clutch. We found that as incubation progressed, females allowed observers to approach more closely before flushing from the nest. In some species, females with larger clutches allowed closer approaches to nests before flushing which was also consistent with nest defense theory. In contrast, time of season (Julian date) did not relate to flushing distance for any species. When species were compared, we found that species with moderate to high yearly mortality and high reproductive output per breeding attempt (e.g., northern shoveler and blue-winged teal) were less likely to abandon nesting attempts and exhibited riskier behavior (remained at nests when approached closely by observers) than species that had lower yearly mortality (e.g., mallard). Our results show that flushing distance and patterns of nest abandonment by female ducks conform to several predictions of nest defense theory.Correspondence to: M.R.L. Forbes     

Early amniocentesis: Experience of 222 consecutive patients, 1987–1988

Early amniocentesis from 9 to 14 weeks' gestation provides a safe and accurate method of prenatal diagnosis of cytogenetic and biochemical disorders. There was a 100 per cent success rate in culturing the amniotic cells from 222 samples obtained between 9 and 14 weeks' gestation. Follow-up of the patients to delivery revealed an abortion rate of 1·4 per cent. Among the 207 live- and stillborn infants, only one had a congenital abnormality (bilateral talipes equino-varus) and no infant had respiratory distress syndrome or pneumonia. Eleven pregnancies were terminated following the detection of a chromosomal, biochemical, or congenital abnormality (5·0 per cent). However, before the procedure of early amniocentesis becomes routine clinical practice, it requires appraisal by a randomized clinical trial.     

Crash risk perception of sleepy driving and its comparisons with drink driving and speeding: Which behavior is perceived as the riskiest?

Objective: Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor but may be underrecognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding.

Methods: Three hundred Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants' perceptions of crash risk were assessed for 5 different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, nighttime) of driving.

Results: The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior but not as risky as high levels of speeding (P < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 a.m. was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky because time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk.

Conclusions: The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long-distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community's awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and, in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.     

A socio-ecological adaptive approach to contaminated mega-site management: from 'control and correct' to 'coping with change'

Mega-sites have a notable impact on surrounding ecological systems. At such sites there are substantial risks associated with complex socio-ecological interactions that are hard to characterize, let alone model and predict. While the urge to control and clean-up mega-sites (control and correct) is understandable, rather than setting a goal of cleaning up such sites, we suggest a more realistic response strategy is to address these massive and persistent sources of contamination by acknowledging their position as new features of the socio-ecological landscapes within which they are located. As it seems nearly impossible to clean up such sites, we argue for consideration of a 'coping with change' rather than a 'control and correct' approach. This strategy recognizes that the current management option for a mega-site, in light of its physical complexities and due to changing societal preferences, geochemical transformations, hydrogeology knowledge and remedial technology options may not remain optimal in future, and therefore needs to be continuously adapted, as community, ecology, technology and understanding change over time. This approach creates an opportunity to consider the relationship between a mega-site and its human and ecological environments in a different and more dynamic way. Our proposed approach relies on iterative adaptive management to incorporate mega-site management into the overall socio-ecological systems of the site's context. This approach effectively embeds mega-site management planning in a triple bottom line and environmental sustainability structure, rather than simply using single measures of success, such as contaminant-based guidelines. Recognizing that there is probably no best solution for managing a mega-site, we present a starting point for engaging constructively with this seemingly intractable issue. Therefore, we aim to initiate discussion about a new approach to mega-site management, in which the complexity of the problems posed by mega-sites is reflected upon in its entirety. These complexities are associated with uncertainties and unknowns that have to be addressed, as they have an impact on the strategies being developed and applied. We contend that the best that can be hoped for in mega-site management is an acceptable solution for the current state of affairs, with good flexibility to modify strategies as new site conditions, remediation possibilities, community preferences and management objectives develop over time.