Phytoplankton composition in relation to primary production in Chesapeake Bay

The dominant phytoplankton taxa during seasonal periods of peak primary productivity were identified during a 4 yr study (July 1989 to June 1993) in Chesapeake Bay. Maximum phytoplankton abundance occurred from late winter to early spring, and was dominated by a few species of centric diatoms. This development was followed by more diversified assemblages of diatoms and phytoflagellates that produced additional concentration peaks in summer and fall; all these maxima were accompanied by concurrent productivity peaks. High summer productivity resulted when the phytoplankton concentrations of diatoms and phytoflagellates were augmented by an increased abundance of autotrophic picoplankton. There was variability in both the seasonal and annual growth maxima of these algal populations and in total productivity. Higher cell concentrations and productivity were associated with higher nutrient levels on the western side of the bay, at sites adjacent to major tributaries. Periods of highest productivity were in spring and summer, ranging from 176 to 346 g Cm^-2yr^-1 over the 4 yr period, with a mean annual productivity of 255 g Cm^-2yr^-1. The bay stations rates ranged from 82 to 538 g Cm^-2yr^-1.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.1

ABSTRACT: Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate-induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate-induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non-irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non-irrigated, growing areas is substantial.     

Maturation shifts in a temperate marine fish population cannot be explained by simulated changes in temperature-dependent growth and maturity

To disentangle genetic and environmental influences on phenotypic traits that influence maturation of fish, it would be useful to predict the expected change due to environment alone to compare with observations. This requires a realistically scaled, species-specific life history model of environmentally determined variation in individual growth and maturation. In this study, inter-annual variability in the proportion of mature haddock in the west North Sea was predicted using a stochastic, individual-based simulation model incorporating a temperature-dependent maturation threshold. This species and region are particularly relevant to the debate about the relative importance of genetic and climate change because North Sea haddock have experienced both high fishing mortality and substantial warming in recent decades. Using observed temperatures in combination with temperature-dependent models for growth and maturation, the simulation model predicted year-to-year variation in length and maturity at age expected for cohorts produced from 1979 to 2006. The simulated proportions mature at age 2 were then compared to the observed proportions in an annual bottom trawl survey. Although the model explained much of the high-frequency variation in maturation, the simulated time trend under-represented the rate of increase in the observed trend in proportions mature. This inability of the temperature-dependent life history model to predict the magnitude of change appears consistent with a long-term decline in the maturation threshold. This result provides indirect support for a genetic change in a key life history trait.     

Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data

Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations.     

Business recovery: an assessment framework

This paper presents a Business Recovery Assessment Framework (BRAF) to help researchers and practitioners design robust, repeatable, and comparable studies of business recovery in various post‐disruption contexts. Studies assessing business recovery without adequately considering the research aims, recovery definitions, and indicators can produce misleading findings. The BRAF is composed of a series of steps that guide the decisions that researchers need to make to ensure: (i) that recovery is indeed being measured; (ii) that the indicators of recovery that are selected align with the objectives of the study and the definition of recovery; and, where necessary, (iii) that appropriate comparative control variables are in place. The paper draws on a large dataset of business surveys collected following the earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 to demonstrate the varied conclusions that different recovery indicators can produce and to justify the need for a systematic approach to business recovery assessments.     

The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring quality: do older mothers really produce the best offspring?

Maternal effects are increasingly recognized as important drivers of population dynamics and determinants of evolutionary trajectories. Recently, there has been a proliferation of studies finding or citing a positive relationship between maternal size/age and offspring size or offspring quality. The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring size is intriguing in that it is unclear why young mothers should produce offspring of inferior quality or fitness. Here we evaluate the underlying evolutionary pressures that may lead to a maternal size/age-offspring size correlation and consider the likelihood that such a correlation results in a positive relationship between the age or size of mothers and the fitness of their offspring. We find that, while there are a number of reasons why selection may favor the production of larger offspring by larger mothers, this change in size is more likely due to associated changes in the maternal phenotype that affect the offspring size-performance relationship. We did not find evidence that the offspring of older females should have intrinsically higher fitness. When we explored this issue theoretically, the only instance in which smaller mothers produce suboptimal offspring sizes is when a (largely unsupported) constraint on maximum offspring size is introduced into the model. It is clear that larger offspring fare better than smaller offspring when reared in the same environment, but this misses a critical point: different environments elicit selection for different optimal sizes of young. We suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting the outcome of offspring-size experiments when offspring from different mothers are reared in a common environment, because this approach may remove the source of selection (e.g., reproducing in different context) that induced a shift in offspring size in the first place. It has been suggested that fish stocks should be managed to preserve these older age classes because larger mothers produce offspring with a greater chance of survival and subsequent recruitment. Overall, we suggest that, while there are clear and compelling reasons for preserving older females in exploited populations, there is little theoretical justification or evidence that older mothers produce offspring with higher per capita fitness than do younger mothers.     

Nitrogen Budget in a Lowland Coastal Area Within the Po River Basin (Northern Italy): Multiple Evidences of Equilibrium Between Sources and Internal Sinks

Detailed studies on pollutants genesis, path and transformation are needed in agricultural catchments facing coastal areas. Here, loss of nutrients should be minimized in order to protect valuable aquatic ecosystems from eutrophication phenomena. A soil system N budget was calculated for a lowland coastal area, the Po di Volano basin (Po River Delta, Northern Italy), characterized by extremely flat topography and fine soil texture and bordering a network of lagoon ecosystems. Main features of this area are the scarce relevance of livestock farming, the intense agriculture, mainly sustained by chemical fertilizers, and the developed network of artificial canals with long water residence time. Average nitrogen input exceeds output terms by ~60 kg N ha^?1 year^?1, a relatively small amount if compared to sub-basins of the same hydrological system. Analysis of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in groundwater suggests limited vertical loss and no accumulation of this element, while a nitrogen mass balance in surface waters indicates a net and significant removal within the watershed. Our data provide multiple evidences of efficient control of the nitrogen excess in this geographical area and we speculate that denitrification in soil and in the secondary drainage system performs this ecosystemic function. Additionally, the significant difference between nitrogen input and nitrogen output loads associated to the irrigation system, which is fed by the N-rich Po River, suggests that this basin metabolizes part of the nitrogen excess produced upstream. The traditionally absent livestock farming practices and consequent low use of manure as fertilizer pose the risk of excess soil mineralization and progressive loss of denitrification capacity in this area.