SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Fires in Northern Taiga Larch Forests of Central Siberia

The periodicity of fires in larch forests of Evenkia and their relationship with landscape elements have been studied. Cross-sections with “burns” in them caused by past fires have been analyzed in 72 test plots; the fire chronology encompassed the period from the 15th to the 20th century. The between-fire intervals (BFIs) have been calculated by two methods: (I) on the basis of burns alone and (II) on the basis of burns and the start of growth of the new generation of larch after the earliest fire. The BFI depends on local orographic features; it is 86 ± 11 (105 ± 12), 61 ± 8 (73 ± 8), 139 ± 17 (138 ± 18), and 68 ± 14 (70 ± 13) years for northeastern slopes, southwestern slopes, bogs, and flatlands, respectively. The mean BFIs calculated by methods I and II are 82 ± 7 and 95 ± 7 years, respectively. The permafrost horizon rises at a mean rate of 0.3 cm per year after a forest fire. It has been shown that the number of fires regularly peaks at periods of 36 and 82 years. There is also a temporal trend in fire frequency: the mean BFI was approximately 100 years in the 19th century and 65 years in the 20th century.     

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g(s)) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO(3)SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g(s) in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f(phen) and f(SWP) were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites.     

Analysis and residue levels of forchlorfenuron (CPPU) in watermelons

This paper describes the application of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) for analysis of residues of forchlorfenuron (CPPU), a new plant growth regulator, in watermelons, after a sample preparation step based on the buffered Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe extraction method. Analytical determinations were carried out in a triple quadrupole system fitted with an electrospray interphase operating in the positive ionisation mode (ESI+). Three simultaneous MS-MS transitions of the quasi-molecular ion m/z 248 (precursor ion) were monitored for data acquisition (248 > 129, 248 > 155, and 248 > 248), using the transition 248 > 129 for quantitation. Recovery studies on watermelons at levels of 1-200 microg/kg, performing five replicates at each level and using bracketing single-level calibration with matrix-matched standards for quantitation, gave forchlorfenuron mean recoveries ranging from 82 to 106% with relative standard deviations (RSD) lower than 18%. The limit of determination was established at 1 microg/kg. The method was applied to evaluate the persistence of forchlorfenuron residues in watermelons grown in plastic greenhouses, after applying an individual spray treatment to the flower ovary at the anthesis stage (45 mu g/flower and 60 mu g/flower for cv "Extazy" and cv "reina de corazones" watermelons, respectively). One month after treatment, 20 "Extazy" watermelon units (1.5-2 kg/unit) and 20 "Reina de corazones" watermelon units (4-5 kg/unit) were collected and analyzed individually. None of the samples contained forchlorfenuron residues higher than 1 microg/kg.