Advanced REACH Tool (ART): calibration of the mechanistic model

The mechanistic model of the Advanced Reach Tool (ART) provides a relative ranking of exposure levels from different scenarios. The objectives of the calibration described in this paper are threefold: to study whether the mechanistic model scores are accurately ranked in relation to exposure measurements; to enable the mechanistic model to estimate actual exposure levels rather than relative scores; and to provide a method of quantifying model uncertainty. Stringent data quality guidelines were applied to the collated data. Linear mixed effects models were used to evaluate the association between relative ART model scores and measurements. A random scenario and company component of variance were introduced to reflect the model uncertainty. Stratified analyses were conducted for different forms of exposure (abrasive dust, dust, vapours and mists). In total more than 2000 good quality measurements were available for the calibration of the mechanistic model. The calibration showed that after calibration the mechanistic model of ART was able to estimate geometric mean (GM) exposure levels with 90% confidence for a given scenario to lie within a factor between two and six of the measured GM depending upon the form of exposure.     

Growth and survival differences among native,introduced and hybrid blue mussels (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus</Emphasis> spp.): genotype,environment and interaction effects

The Mytilus species complex consists of three closely related mussel species: Mytilus trossulus, Mytilus edulis, and Mytilus galloprovincialis, which are found globally in temperate intertidal waters. Introduction of one or more of these species have occurred world-wide via shipping and aquaculture. Stable hybrid zones have developed in areas where these species have come into contact, making the invasion process complex. On the east coast of Vancouver Island (VI), British Columbia (BC), Canada, the native (M. trossulus) and introduced species (M. edulis and M. galloprovincialis), as well as their hybrid offspring, occur sympatrically. This study used a common environment experiment to quantify growth and survival differences among native, introduced, and introgressed mussels on VI. Mussels were collected from an area of known hybridization and reared in cages from May to August 2006. The cages were deployed at a local site as well as a remote site (approximately 150 km apart), and the mussels were genotyped at two species-specific loci. Growth and survival, as fitness measures, were monitored: native, introduced, and introgressed individuals were compared between and within sites to determine whether growth and survival were independent of site and genotype. Overall, mussels reared at Quadra Island performed better than locally-reared mussels at Ladysmith. Specifically, introgressed mussels reared at Quadra Island performed better than all genotypes reared at Ladysmith, as well as better than native mussels reared at Quadra Island. Differences in survival and growth among the native, introduced and introgressed mussels may serve to explain the complex hybridization patterns and dynamics characteristic of the VI introgression zone.     

Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore

Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city–state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213–414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313–534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30–38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.     

Modification of the feeding behavior of marine copepods by sub-lethal concentrations of water-accommodated fuel oil

The feeding behaviors of Acartia clausi and A. tonsa were measured in samples of water containing low levels of a water-accommodated fraction of No. 2 fuel oil. The copepods fed normally at a hydrocarbon concentration of 70 g l^-1, but their feeding behavior was altered both quantitatively and qualitatively at a concentration of 250 g l^-1. Three types of response to the higher oil level were found. The first was total suppression of feeding. Both other types involved suppression of feeding on particles between 7 and 15 m diameter, but one showed no change in the ingestion of larger particles, whereas the other displayed increased feeding on particles larger than 15 m diameter. These results suggest that the species of Acartia studied use three different modes of feeding, each on a different size range of particulate material. Low-level hydrocarbon pollution affects each feeding mode differently.Contribution No. 973, Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies of the University of Maryland     

Industry,incidents and casualties in South West England: what is their relationship and are there social inequalities in their distribution?

This ecological study aimed, through the analysis of 1,146 wards in the South West of England (1998–2002), firstly, to examine whether chemical incidents and public casualties are more likely near complex industry (emissions to land, air or water: Integrated Pollution Control industry, IPC) or industry with emissions to air only (Local Air Pollution Control industry, LAPC). Secondly, the study examined whether industry, incidents and casualties are found close to deprivation. Social inequalities were examined across quintiles of wards. Fifty-two wards (4.5%) contained an IPC industry and 712 (62.1%) an LAPC. Incidents occurred in 132 wards (11.5%), with casualties in 59 (5.1%). Chemical incidents occurred more frequently in wards with LAPC (152, IPC 20); the same was true of casualties (211, 12). With each additional LAPC site in a ward, the risk of an incident rose by 22% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8–38%), suggesting a dose–response relationship. No clear social inequalities were found. In the South West of England, the public are more likely to be affected by an incident occurring at a simple LAPC site rather than a complex IPC site. This has implications for emergency planning which, at present, focusses most attention on the larger, more complex IPC sites.     

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

Release of photoassimilated carbon as dissolved organic matter by marine phytoplankton

The release of photoassimilated carbon as dissolved organic matter was studied in situ in oligotrophic and eutrophic marine waters and in axenic laboratory cultures. Percentage extracellular release (PER), integrated for the trophogenic zone, ranged from 6 to 12% in eutrophic waters and from 17 to 27% in oligotrophic seas. Most of the algal cultures released low amounts of dissolved organic matter (5%) during exponential growth. The highest levels of PER were observed in surface and deep samples, possibly as a result of elevated photorespiration and senescent cells. The generally lower values for extracellular release reported in this work as compared to other studies may be partly due to improved experimental techniques which minimized previously encountered artifacts.     

Spoken but not Heard: the promise of the precautionary principle for natural resource development

Too often, mining developments provide short-term jobs and taxes, and long-term environmental and community degradation. The 'precautionary principle', as practised by the European Union and increasingly by other nations, may provide an opportunity for local communities and others who bear the brunt of mining to employ a cautionary approach to mine permitting. Using the case of the Zortman-Landusky gold mine in Montana, the article illustrates how the precautionary principle might have precluded the tremendous losses suffered by the Fort Belknap residents who live near the now abandoned mine. The Native Americans and other protestors against the mine were correct in their worries about mine drainage affecting their watercourses and the precautionary principle might have limited mine development. The case also illustrates that economic data on mining companies need to go well beyond simple reclamation bond capability in order to avoid bankruptcy resulting in the neighbours and the government having to pay for clean-up.