Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model

Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus.     

Asian Americans and workplace discrimination: The interplay between sex of evaluators and the perception of social skills

In two role‐playing scenarios, we investigate how White male and female evaluators perceive an Asian American versus White job candidate on the dimensions of competence and social skills and how these perceptions affect evaluators' decisions in hiring and promotion. Specifically, Study 1 examines how the perceptions of competence and social skills affect Asian (versus White) college graduates' chance of obtaining a non‐technical (versus technical) position, and Study 2 tests how these perceptions affect Asians' probability of promotion relative to Whites'. Our findings suggest that female evaluators were less likely to select Asian than White candidates into positions involving social skills and were less likely to promote Asian than White candidates into these types of positions. Furthermore, female evaluators' perception that Asians were less socially skilled than Whites mediated both of these decisions. This paper contributes to the understanding of workplace discrimination of Asian Americans. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

A spatial model approach for assessing windbreak growth and carbon stocks

Agroforestry, the deliberate integration of trees into agricultural operations, sequesters carbon (C) while providing valuable services on agricultural lands. However, methods to quantify present and projected C stocks in these open-grown woody systems are limited. As an initial step to address C accounting in agroforestry systems, a spatial Markov random field model for predicting the natural logarithm (log) of the mean aboveground volume of green ash ( Marsh.) within a shelterbelt, referred to as the log of aboveground volume, was developed using data from an earlier study and web-available soil and climate information. Windbreak characteristics, site, and climate variables were used to model the large-scale trend of the log of aboveground volume. The residuals from this initial model were correlated among sites up to 24 km from a point of interest. Therefore, a spatial dependence parameter was used to incorporate information from sites within 24 km into the prediction of the log of the aboveground volume. Age is an important windbreak characteristic in the model. Thus, the log of aboveground volume can be predicted for a given windbreak age and for values of other explanatory variables associated with a site of interest. Such predictions can be exponentiated to obtain predictions of aboveground volume for windbreaks without repeated inventory. With the capability of quantifying uncertainty, the model has the potential for large regional planning efforts and C stock assessments for many deciduous tree species used in windbreaks and riparian buffers once it is calibrated.     

Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

The effects of temperature and salinity on reproductive success of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Temora longicornis</Emphasis> in the Baltic Sea: a copepod coping with a tough situation

At specific locations within the Baltic Sea, thermoclines and haloclines can create rapid spatial and temporal changes in temperature (T) and salinity (S) exceeding 10°C and 9 psu with seasonal ranges in temperature exceeding 20°C. These wide ranges in abiotic factors affect the distribution and abundance of Baltic Sea copepods via species-specific, physiological-based impacts on vital rates. In this laboratory study, we characterized the influence of T and S on aspects of reproductive success and naupliar survival of a southwestern Baltic population of Temora longicornis (Copepoda: Calanoida). First, using ad libitum feeding conditions, we measured egg production (EP, no. of eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹) at 12 different temperatures between 2.5 and 24°C, observing the highest mean EP at 16.9°C (12 eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹). Next, the effect of S on EP and hatching success (HS, %) was quantified at 12°C for cohorts that had been acclimated to either 8, 14, 20 or 26 psu and tested at each of five salinities (8, 14, 20, 26 and 32 psu). The mean EP was highest for (and maximum EP similar among) 14, 20 and 26 psu cohorts when tested at their acclimation salinity whereas EP was lower at other salinities. For adults reared at 8 psu, a commonly encountered salinity in Baltic surface waters, EP was relatively low at all test salinities—a pattern indicative of osmotic stress. When incubated at 12°C and 15 different salinities between 0 and 34 psu, HS increased asymptotically with increasing S and was maximal (82.6–84.3%) between 24 and 26 psu. However, HS did depend upon the adult acclimation salinity. Finally, the 48-h survival of nauplii hatched and reared at 14 psu at one of six different temperatures (10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 20°C) was measured after exposure to a novel salinity (either 7 or 20 psu). Upon exposure to 7 psu, 48-h naupliar mortality increased with increasing temperature, ranging from 26.7% at 10°C to 63.2% at 20°C. In contrast, after exposure to 20 psu, mortality was relatively low at all temperatures (1.7% at 10°C and ≤26.7% for all other temperatures). An intra-specific comparison of EP for three different T. longicornis populations revealed markedly different temperature optima and clearly demonstrated the negative impact of brackish (Baltic) salinities. Our results provide estimates of reproductive success and early survival of T. longicornis to the wide ranges of temperatures and salinities that will aid ongoing biophysical modeling examining climate impacts on this species within the Baltic Sea.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

Climate pioneership and leadership in structurally disadvantaged maritime port cities

ABSTRACT

Innovative climate governance in small-to-medium-sized structurally disadvantaged cities (SDCs) are assessed. Considering their deeply ingrained severe economic and social problems it would be reasonable to assume that SDCs act primarily as climate laggards or at best as followers. However, novel empirical findings show that SDCs are capable of acting as climate pioneers. Different types and styles of climate leadership and pioneership and how they operate within multi-level and polycentric governance structures are identified and assessed. SDCs seem relatively readily willing to adopt transformational climate pioneership styles to create ‘green’ jobs, for example, in the offshore wind energy sector and with the aim of improving their poor external image. However, in order to sustain transformational climate pioneership they often have to rely on support from ‘higher’ levels of governance. For SDCs, there is a tension between learning from each other’s best practice and fierce economic competition in climate innovation.