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11.
Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where
they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and
use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time
fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such
that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization
methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms
are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real
behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into
account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to
obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described.
This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process. 相似文献
12.
CLAUS WEDEKIND GUILLAUME EVANNO TAMÁS SZÉKELY MANUEL POMPINI OLIVIER DARBELLAY JOACHIM GUTHRUF 《Conservation biology》2013,27(1):229-234
In some fishes, water chemistry or temperature affects sex determination or creates sex‐specific selection pressures. The resulting population sex ratios are hard to predict from laboratory studies if the environmental triggers interact with other factors, whereas in field studies, singular observations of unusual sex ratios may be particularly prone to selective reporting. Long‐term monitoring largely avoids these problems. We studied a population of grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in Lake Thun, Switzerland, that has been monitored since 1948. Samples of spawning fish have been caught about 3 times/week around spawning season, and water temperature at the spawning site has been continuously recorded since 1970. We used scale samples collected in different years to determine the average age of spawners (for life‐stage specific analyses) and to identify the cohort born in 2003 (an extraordinarily warm year). Recent tissue samples were genotyped on microsatellite markers to test for genetic bottlenecks in the past and to estimate the genetically effective population size (Ne). Operational sex ratios changed from approximately 65% males before 1993 to approximately 85% males from 1993 to 2011. Sex ratios correlated with the water temperatures the fish experienced in their first year of life. Sex ratios were best explained by the average temperature juvenile fish experienced during their first summer. Grayling abundance is declining, but we found no evidence of a strong genetic bottleneck that would explain the apparent lack of evolutionary response to the unequal sex ratio. Results of other studies show no evidence of endocrine disruptors in the study area. Our findings suggest temperature affects population sex ratio and thereby contributes to population decline. Persistencia de Proporción de Sexos Desigual en una Población de Tímalos (Salmonidae) y el Posible Papel del Incremento de la Temperatura 相似文献