Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Promoting e-mobility in India: challenges,framework, and future roadmap

The purpose of the research is to identify the critical challenges that are impeding the adoption of e-mobility in India. It also aims to give a roadmap how to address these challenges while taking into considerations concerns of all the relevant stakeholders. Based on an in-depth literature review, an exploratory research design is employed to delve deep into various aspects of e-mobility. This is followed by a three-phase Delphi technique to identify and rate the e-mobility challenges in the Indian context. The study successfully identifies four different categories of challenges and proposes integrative framework for e-mobility. Further, the research goes on to lay out the future roadmap for mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in India. The research is novel in terms of presenting a holistic viewpoint on e-mobility in India. Its originality lies in identifying the major inhibitors obstructing EVs adoption in India and then suggesting the roadmap how to overcome these impediments for mass adoption of e-mobility.     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

A fragment constant QSAR model for evaluating the EC50 values of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna.

The quantitative relationship between the median effective concentration (EC50) of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna and the number of molecular fragments was investigated based on experimental EC50 values for 217 chemicals derived from the literature. A fragment constant model was developed based on a multivariate linear regression between the number of fragments and the logarithmically transformed reciprocal values of EC50. Functional correction factors were introduced into the model. The model was verified using an independent set of randomly selected data. The mean residual of the final model was 0.4 log-units. The robustness of the model was discussed based on the results of three jackknife tests.     

Transition zone in otoliths of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) and its relationship to the onset of maturity

A transition zone in the otoliths of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) is described where annulus width decreases markedly. For fish sampled at spawning time, the relationship between gonad stage and the presence or absence of a transition zone is consistent with the hypothesis that this zone marks the onset of maturity, if allowance is made for some error in gonad staging and identification of the zone. Another data set from a non-spawning area after the spawning season is not consistent with the hypothesis. However, these latter data are considered less reliable because of the small size of the fish in the sample and difficulties in determining, outside the spawning season, whether a fish has been reproductively active. This hypothesis was used to provide estimates of the median age (30 yr) and length (31 cm) at the onset of maturity for the Chatham Rise, New Zealand population. These estimates are unaffected by the biases associated with the usual ogive method of estimation. Received: 27 June 1997 / Accepted: 1 July 1997     

Genetic Diversity of Lepilemur mustelinus ruficaudatus, a Nocturnal Lemur of Madagascar

The genetic polymorphism of natural populations of Lepilemur mustelinus ruficaudatus was studied by protein electrophoresis. We sampled blood from 72 individuals from four populations separated by geographic or anthropogenic barriers from southwestern Madagascar. Six out of 22 enzyme loci showed genetic variation with a degree of polymorphism of 0.273. The expected and observed degree of genetic heterozygosity over all loci is similar to that of other primates (H_e = 0.058, H_o = 0.036). The F-statistics revealed that the four subpopulations were similar with respect to gene structure (F_ST = 0.065, p = 0.016), but the genotypic structures within subpopulations were inconsistent with random mating. For the total of the four subpopulations the proportion of heterozygous individuals was significantly smaller than expected under random mating (F_IS = 0.373, F_IT = 0.414, p < 0.01). These results correspond closely to what is expected considering the low migration ability of individuals of L. m ruficaudatus leading to small and rather isolated inbred populations.     

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Fires in Northern Taiga Larch Forests of Central Siberia

The periodicity of fires in larch forests of Evenkia and their relationship with landscape elements have been studied. Cross-sections with “burns” in them caused by past fires have been analyzed in 72 test plots; the fire chronology encompassed the period from the 15th to the 20th century. The between-fire intervals (BFIs) have been calculated by two methods: (I) on the basis of burns alone and (II) on the basis of burns and the start of growth of the new generation of larch after the earliest fire. The BFI depends on local orographic features; it is 86 ± 11 (105 ± 12), 61 ± 8 (73 ± 8), 139 ± 17 (138 ± 18), and 68 ± 14 (70 ± 13) years for northeastern slopes, southwestern slopes, bogs, and flatlands, respectively. The mean BFIs calculated by methods I and II are 82 ± 7 and 95 ± 7 years, respectively. The permafrost horizon rises at a mean rate of 0.3 cm per year after a forest fire. It has been shown that the number of fires regularly peaks at periods of 36 and 82 years. There is also a temporal trend in fire frequency: the mean BFI was approximately 100 years in the 19th century and 65 years in the 20th century.