NATIONWIDE REGRESSION MODELS FOR PREDICTING URBAN RUNOFF WATER QUALITY AT UNMONITORED SITES1

ABSTRACT: Regression models are presented that can be used to estimate mean loads for chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, dissolved solids, total nitrogen, total ammonia plus nitrogen, total phosphorous, dissolved phosphorous, total copper, total lead, and total zinc at unmonitored sites in urban areas. Explanatory variables include drainage area, imperviousness of drainage basin to infiltration, mean annual rainfall, a land-use indicator variable, and mean minimum January temperature. Model parameters are estimated by a generalized-least-squares regression method that accounts for cross correlation and differences in reliability of sample estimates between sites. The regression models account for 20 to 65 percent of the total variation in observed loads.     

The Development and Implementation of Indicators of Ecosystem Health in the Great Lakes Basin

This paper describes a process for the selection of a suite of ecosystem health indicators for the Great Lakes, as called for in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The paper also presents some preliminary data on status and trends in ecosystem components based on those indicators. The indicator selection process was carried out by over 150 scientists and managers from both Canada and the USA, and involved the presentation of the proposed indicators at the State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conferences (SOLECs). An open period for comment followed the conferences where input from scientists involved in Great Lakes programs was received. The suite of indicators will, over time, present information in an understandable format that will allow for more informed management decisions.     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.     

CREATING MEANINGFUL STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT IN WATERSHED PLANNING IN PIERCE COUNTY,WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: Since 1989, the government of Pierce County, Washington, has prepared four watershed action plans. The watersheds cover almost 800,000 acres and include about 600,000 residents and diverse land uses, from the city of Tacoma to Mount Rainier National Park. The primary purpose of these plans was to address water quality impacts from nonpoint sources of pollution and to protect beneficial uses of water. Pierce County has experienced problems such as shellfish bed closures and the Federal Clean Water Act Section 303(d) listing of local water bodies as a result of declining water quality. Pierce County achieved improvements by engaging diverse groups of stakeholders in generating solutions to nonpoint sources of water pollution through our watershed planning process. Using participatory methods borrowed from private industry, Pierce County was able to reach consensus, build trust, maximize participation, facilitate learning, encourage creativity, develop partnerships, shorten time frames for the planning processes, and increase the level of commitment participants had to implementing the plans. As a result, the earliest plans have a high rate of voluntary implementation. This indicates that the process and methodology used to develop watershed plans has a significant, if not critical, impact on their success.     

Nestmate discrimination in social wasps (Polistes metricus,Hymenoptera: Vespidae)

Summary Laboratory-overwintered paper wasp (Polistes metricus) females preferentially associate on new nests with former nestmates (presumably their sisters) rather than with non-nestmates in the absence of cues associated with their natal nests or nest sites. Females isolated from conspecifics and nests for 74–99 days retain the ability to discriminate nestmates from nonnestmates.     

A cross-validation of safety climate scale using confirmatory factor analytic approach

PROBLEM: Given the lack of a consistent factor structure of safety climate, this study tested the stability of a factor structure of a safety climate scale developed through an extensive literature review using confirmatory factor analytic approach and cross-validation. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of 722 U.S. grain industry workers participated in the questionnaire survey. RESULTS: The safety climate scale developed through the generation of an item pool based on a table of specifications, subsequent scientific item reduction procedures, reviews from experts, and pilot test yielded adequate reliabilities for each dimension. Each item showed proper discriminative power based on both internal and external criteria. Criterion validity was manifested by the significant positive correlation of the scale with five criteria. Evidence of construct validity was provided by both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Both calibration and validation samples supported a consistent factor structure. Management commitment and supervisor support were found to influence other dimensions of safety climate. DISCUSSION: This study provides an insight into the primary reason why previous attempts have failed to find a consistent factor structure of safety climate: No specification of the influence of management commitment and supervisor support on other dimensions of safety in their models. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study provide a framework upon which accident prevention efforts can be effectively organized and underscore the importance of management commitment and supervisor support as they affect employee safety perceptions.     

Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems

Across the circumpolar North large disparities in the distribution of renewable and nonrenewable resources, human population density, capital investments, and basic residential and transportation infrastructure combine to create recognizable hotspots of recent and foreseeable change. Northern Fennoscandia exemplifies a relatively benign situation due to its current economic and political stability. Northern Russia is experiencing rapid, mostly negative changes reflecting the general state of crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. North America enjoys a relatively stable regulatory structure to mitigate environmental degradation associated with industry, but is on the verge of approving massive new development schemes that would significantly expand the spatial extent of potentially affected social-ecological systems. Institutional or regulatory context influences the extent to which ecosystem services are buffered against environmental change. With or without a warming climate, certain geographic areas appear especially vulnerable to damages that may threaten their ability to supply goods and services in the near future. Climate change may exacerbate this situation in some places but may offer opportunities to enhance resilience in the long term.     

Conflict and engagement: An empirical study of a farmer-extension partnership in a sustainable agriculture program

Stakeholder engagement is a crucial concept of extension education. Engagement expresses democratic values of the land-grant mission by providing opportunities for stakeholders to influence program planning, including setting the agenda and negotiating resource allocations. In practice, the concept of engagement guides the formation of partnerships among extension, communities, industry, and government. In the area of sustainable agriculture, however, stakeholders may conflict, presenting challenges to the engagement process. Results from a study of a Canadian sustainable agriculture program, produced using cultural anthropology and participatory action research, detail challenges of the engagement process that led to reconstruction of a farmer-extension partnership. Notable in the early phase of the reconstruction process were critical reflection, stakeholder forums, exclusion through caucusing, and coalition building. An argument for a neopragmatist view provides a theoretical basis for understanding counterintuitive dimensions of engagement revealed by the study.     

Neighborhood and community interactions determine the spatial pattern of tropical tree seedling survival

Factors affecting survival and recruitment of 3531 individually mapped seedlings of Myristicaceae were examined over three years in a highly diverse neotropical rain forest, at spatial scales of 1-9 m and 25 ha. We found convincing evidence of a community compensatory trend (CCT) in seedling survival (i.e., more abundant species had higher seedling mortality at the 25-ha scale), which suggests that density-dependent mortality may contribute to the spatial dynamics of seedling recruitment. Unlike previous studies, we demonstrate that the CCT was not caused by differences in microhabitat preferences or life history strategy among the study species. In local neighborhood analyses, the spatial autocorrelation of seedling survival was important at small spatial scales (1-5 m) but decayed rapidly with increasing distance. Relative seedling height had the greatest effect on seedling survival. Conspecific seedling density had a more negative effect on survival than heterospecific seedling density and was stronger and extended farther in rare species than in common species. Taken together, the CCT and neighborhood analyses suggest that seedling mortality is coupled more strongly to the landscape-scale abundance of conspecific large trees in common species and the local density of conspecific seedlings in rare species. We conclude that negative density dependence could promote species coexistence in this rain forest community but that the scale dependence of interactions differs between rare and common species.