Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Subpopulation Triage: How to Allocate Conservation Effort among Populations

Abstract:  Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes ( Vulpes macrotis mutica ). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species.     

Evaluating the Potential for Conservation Development: Biophysical, Economic, and Institutional Perspectives

Abstract:  The widespread conversion of rural land to low-density residential development poses an immediate threat to biodiversity and to the provision of ecosystem services. Given that development will continue and environmental stakes are high, analyzing alternative growth strategies is critical. Conservation development is one such strategy that has the potential to benefit ecosystems and diverse stakeholders including developers, homebuyers, governments, and society as a whole. Conservation development clusters homes on one part of a property to manage the most ecologically important land for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. We draw on lessons learned from landscape ecology, open-space development, and regional planning to weigh the biophysical, economic, and institutional evidence for and against conservation development. Conservation development offers many potential environmental and economic advantages: relatively high home values and appreciation rates, lower development costs, and social and ecological benefits to society including landscape connectivity, protection and active stewardship of important ecological assets, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. But this approach also has shortcomings: it may require enlightened institutional regulations and regional planning (and/or ecologically aware developers), it is not always more profitable than conventional development and thus may require subsidies or incentives, and additional research is required to fully understand its benefits and drawbacks. With more information on the effects of clustering, the development of flexible zoning laws, and effective regional planning, conservation development could be a viable strategy for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services in changing landscapes.     

The Response of Avian Feeding Guilds to Tropical Forest Disturbance

Abstract:  Anthropogenic habitat disturbance is a major threat to tropical forests and understanding the ecological consequences of this disturbance is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity. There have been many attempts to determine the ecological traits associated with bird species' vulnerability to disturbance, but no attempt has been made to synthesize these studies to show consensus. We analyzed data from 57 published studies (covering 1214 bird species) that investigated the response of tropical bird assemblages to moderate forest disturbance (e.g., selective logging). Our results show that the mean abundance of species from six commonly reported feeding guilds responded differently to disturbance and that species' ecological traits (body size, local population size, and geographic range size) and evolutionary relationships may influence responses in some guilds. Granivore abundance increased significantly and insectivore and frugivore abundance decreased significantly following disturbance. These general conclusions were robust to the effects of ecological traits and phylogeny. Responses of carnivores, nectarivores, and omnivores were less clear, but analyses that accounted for phylogeny indicated that these guilds declined following disturbance. In contrast to the other guilds, the reported responses of carnivores and nectarivores differed among regions (Asia vs. Neotropics) and were influenced by the sampling protocols used in different studies (e.g., time since disturbance), which may explain the difficulty in detecting general responses to disturbance in these guilds. Overall, general patterns governed the responses of species to habitat disturbance, and the differential responses of guilds suggested that disturbance affects trophic organization and thus ecosystem functioning.     

Individual- and Assemblage-Level Effects of Anthropogenic Sedimentation on Snails in Lake Tanganyika

Abstract:  Human impacts on aquatic biodiversity are often measured at the assemblage or community level, although it has been suggested that individual-level measures are more sensitive. We evaluated the effects of anthropogenic sedimentation on endemic snails in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa, by comparing assemblage-level (i.e., species richness, evenness, and abundance) and individual-level (i.e., frequencies of predation and parasitism, fecal organic content, life history) data between sediment-disturbed and reference sites. Previous studies have indicated that sedimentation kills snails and reduces mollusc diversity in this system, but we found little evidence of changes in species richness, evenness, or snail abundance at the levels of sedimentation recorded. In contrast, individual-level data revealed a variety of differences associated with sedimentation. Frequencies of shell scarring by predatory crabs and castration by parasitic trematodes were significantly lower at disturbed sites, indicating shifts in interspecific interactions. Snails ingested large amounts of inorganic sediments at disturbed sites, suggesting a reduction in food quality. In addition, sedimentation was associated with a large downward shift in size distribution within some species and reproduction at smaller size. These strong patterns in individual-level data contrast with the lack of effects at the assemblage level. We argue that incorporating individual-level measures will often enhance the sensitivity of impact surveys and may reveal effects of disturbance on important interspecific interactions.     

WORLD ENERGY RESOURCES - LIMITS FROM TODAY'S GEOLOGICAL STANDPOINT

World fossil energy resources are estimated at about 12,500 times 10⁹ tons of coal equivalent (t.c.e.) of which 900 times 10⁹ t.c.e. are classed as presently recoverable reserves. Future exploration will transform a substantial part of the resources into reserves. Coal is by far the dominant fossil energy. Oilshales and tarsands represent a large energy potential, whose utilization depends on a high energy price level and progress in production technologies. Limits in the availability of oil and gas are visible now for the first time. Low-cost, high-grade uranium reserves are also limited. However, there are large amounts of low-grade uranium resources, which might become recoverable in the future. The use of geothermal energy is currently troubled by problems of technology, costs and environment.     

Post-Project Appraisals in Adaptive Management of River Channel Restoration

Post-project appraisals (PPAs) can evaluate river restoration schemes in relation to their compliance with design, their short-term performance attainment, and their longer-term geomorphological compatibility with the catchment hydrology and sediment transport processes. PPAs provide the basis for communicating the results of one restoration scheme to another, thereby improving future restoration designs. They also supply essential performance feedback needed for adaptive management, in which management actions are treated as experiments. PPAs allow river restoration success to be defined both in terms of the scheme attaining its performance objectives and in providing a significant learning experience. Different levels of investment in PPA, in terms of pre-project data and follow-up information, bring with them different degrees of understanding and thus different abilities to gauge both types of success. We present four case studies to illustrate how the commitment to PPA has determined the understanding achieved in each case. In Moore's Gulch (California, USA), understanding was severely constrained by the lack of pre-project data and post-implementation monitoring. Pre-project data existed for the Kitswell Brook (Hertfordshire, UK), but the monitoring consisted only of one site visit and thus the understanding achieved is related primarily to design compliance issues. The monitoring undertaken for Deep Run (Maryland, USA) and the River Idle (Nottinghamshire, UK) enabled some understanding of the short-term performance of each scheme. The transferable understanding gained from each case study is used to develop an illustrative five-fold classification of geomorphological PPAs (full, medium-term, short-term, one-shot, and remains) according to their potential as learning experiences. The learning experience is central to adaptive management but rarely articulated in the literature. Here, we gauge the potential via superimposition onto a previous schematic representation of the adaptive management process by Haney and Power (1996). Using PPAs wisely can lead to cutting-edge, complex solutions to river restoration challenges.     

Potential Mineral and Energy Resources at Submerged Plate Boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics is briefly reviewed with reference to the recognized association between types of mineral (metals) and energy (hydrocarbons, geothermal) resources that may occur at sites along plate boundaries submerged beneath the oceans. An immense gap in knowledge, technology and economics exists between the potential for mineral or energy resources to occur and the development of the resource as a commercial prospect. The real benefit of mineral discoveries such as polymetallic sulfides at submerged plate boundaries is to feed back information from the seabed to guide exploration for analogous deposits on land. A world map is presented showing the location of submerged plate boundaries and a 200 nautical mile-wide offshore zone. La théorie de la tectonique en plaques est examinée brièvement à la lumière d'associations connues entre les types de mineraux (métaux) et les ressources énergétiques (hydrocarbures, géothermie) qui peuvent se manifester sur des sites au long des plaques submergées par les océans. Il existe une lacune importante en matière de connaissances et de données techniques et économiques entre, d'une part, la presence potentielle de ressources minerales ou energétiques, et d'autre part, la développment de ces ressources dans une perspective de commercialisation. Le benefice réel de découvertes de mineraux tels que les sulfures polymetalliques au long des plaques est celui de fournir des données en provenance du fond de la mer pour l'orientation d'explorations de gisements analogues sur terre ferme. La teoría de placas tectónicas son revisadas brevemente con referencia a la conocida asociación que existe entre tipos de minerales (metales) y energía (hidrocarburos, geotermia) que puedan existir a lo largo de los bordes de placas sumergidas bajo los océanos. Existe un gran vacío de conocimiento, tecnológico y económico, entre el potencial de recursos que pueden existir y el desarrollo comercial de estos recursos. Se espera que los descubrimientos de minerales tales como el de los sulfuros polometálicos en placas sumergidas proveerá información para la exploración de depoAsitos análogos en tierra firme.