Preventing the Spread of Invasive Species: Economic Benefits of Intervention Guided by Ecological Predictions

Abstract:  Preventing the invasion of freshwater aquatic species is the surest way to reduce their impacts, but it is also often expensive. Hence, the most efficient prevention programs will rely on accurate predictions of sites most at risk of becoming invaded and concentrate resources at those sites. Using data from Vilas County, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), collected in the 1970s, we constructed a predictive occurrence model for rusty crayfish ( Orconectes rusticus ) and applied it to an independent data set of 48 Vilas County lakes to predict which of these were most likely to become invaded between 1975 and 2005. We nested this invasion model within an economic framework to determine whether targeted management, derived from our quantitative predictions of likely invasion sites, would increase the economic value of lakes in the independent data set. Although the optimum expenditure on lake protection was high, protecting lakes at this level would have produced net economic benefits of at least $6 million over the last 30 years. We did not attempt to determine the value of nonmarket benefits of protection; thus, our results are likely to underestimate the total benefits from preventing invasions. Our results demonstrate that although few data are available early in an invasion, these data may be sufficient to support targeted, effective, and economically rational management. In addition, our results show that ecological predictions are becoming sufficiently accurate that their application in management can produce net economic benefits.     

Roles of Patch Characteristics,Drought Frequency,and Restoration in Long‐Term Trends of a Widespread Amphibian

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long‐term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg‐mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state‐space and linear‐regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long‐term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido     

The Mortality Experience of Kurdish Refugees Remaining in Turkey

A survey of one of the camps still holding refugees from Iraq who crossed into Turkey in the spring of 1991 showed that the majority of the population was under 15 years of age and that increased mortality occurred during the first 30 days after the refugees left their homes in Iraq. Infants, young children, and the elderly suffered the highest mortality, with infant mortality rates (IMRs) over the first month of the crisis approximately 18–29 times the MR in Iraq in the late 1980s. Still unexplained is a greater than two-fold excess mortality among males compared with females. Other demographic and health findings are also reported.     

Individual- and Assemblage-Level Effects of Anthropogenic Sedimentation on Snails in Lake Tanganyika

Abstract:  Human impacts on aquatic biodiversity are often measured at the assemblage or community level, although it has been suggested that individual-level measures are more sensitive. We evaluated the effects of anthropogenic sedimentation on endemic snails in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa, by comparing assemblage-level (i.e., species richness, evenness, and abundance) and individual-level (i.e., frequencies of predation and parasitism, fecal organic content, life history) data between sediment-disturbed and reference sites. Previous studies have indicated that sedimentation kills snails and reduces mollusc diversity in this system, but we found little evidence of changes in species richness, evenness, or snail abundance at the levels of sedimentation recorded. In contrast, individual-level data revealed a variety of differences associated with sedimentation. Frequencies of shell scarring by predatory crabs and castration by parasitic trematodes were significantly lower at disturbed sites, indicating shifts in interspecific interactions. Snails ingested large amounts of inorganic sediments at disturbed sites, suggesting a reduction in food quality. In addition, sedimentation was associated with a large downward shift in size distribution within some species and reproduction at smaller size. These strong patterns in individual-level data contrast with the lack of effects at the assemblage level. We argue that incorporating individual-level measures will often enhance the sensitivity of impact surveys and may reveal effects of disturbance on important interspecific interactions.