Precipitation Modeling by Polyhedral RCMARS and Comparison with MARS and CMARS

Climate change is becoming an ever important issue due to the possibility that it may result in extreme weather events such as floods or droughts. Consequently, precipitation forecasting has similarly gained in significance as it is a useful tool in meeting the increasing need for the efficient management of water resources as well as in preventing disasters before they happen. In the literature, there are various statistical and computational methods used for this purpose, including linear and nonlinear regression, kriging, time series models, neural networks, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Among them, MARS stands out as the better performing precipitation modeling method. In this article, we used a recently developed method called robust conic mars (RCMARS), based on MARS (also on CMARS), to forecast precipitation owing to its ability to model complex uncertain data. In CMARS, which was developed as a powerful alternative to MARS, the model complexity is penalized in the form of Tikhonov regularization and studied as a conic quadratic programming. In RCMARS, on the other hand, CMARS is refined further by including the existence of uncertainty in the future scenarios and robustifying it with a robust optimization technique. To evaluate the performance of the RCMARS method, it was applied to build a precipitation model constructed as an early warning system for the continental Central Anatolia Region of Turkey, where drought has been a recurrent phenomenon for the last few decades. Furthermore, the performance of the RCMARS precipitation model was also compared to that of MARS and CMARS. The results indicated that RCMARS builds more accurate, precise, and stable precipitation models compared to those of MARS and CMARS. In addition to these advantageous features of the RCMARS precipitation model, it also provided a good fit to the data. As a result, we propose its use in precipitation forecasting for the region studied.     

Trace metals solubility in rainwater: evaluation of rainwater quality at a watershed area, Istanbul

In this study, 79 bulk precipitation samples were collected at two sampling sites near Büyükçekmece Lake, one of the important drinking water sources of Istanbul, for the period of October 2001 to July 2002. The study comprised the determination of trace and toxic metals concentrations in rain water. The concentrations of the metals in this study were found to be higher than those reported by other researchers around the world. The solubility of toxic metals was found in the order of Cd > Cu > V > Zn > Ni > Pb > Cr. Solubility of metals under acidic conditions (pH < 5.5) was approximately five times higher than those under neutral conditions with Cd as the most soluble metal (50% soluble). Statistical evaluations including seasonal variations, crustal enrichment factors, and correlation matrix were discussed to identify the possible sources of these pollutants. The study revealed that anthropogenic elements were highly enriched especially for Cd > Cu > Pb which were found to be highly enriched. Significant portion of Cu and Pb could be increased by the effect of local sources like cement industry in the area; however, the rest of the investigated trace metals could be brought to the sampling site by long-range transport to the Büyükçekmece Lake watershed area.     

Preen gland removal increases plumage bacterial load but not that of feather-degrading bacteria

The preen gland is a holocrine sebaceous gland of the avian integument which produces an oily secretion that is spread on the plumage during preening. It has been suggested that birds may defend themselves against feather-degrading bacteria (FDB) and other potential pathogens using preen gland secretions. However, besides some in vitro studies, the in vivo bacterial inhibitory effects of the preen oil on the abundance of feather-associated bacterial species has not yet been studied in passerines. Here we tested the effect of gland removal on the abundance of FDB and other-cultivable bacterial loads (OCB) of male house sparrows (Passer domesticus). Our results did not support earlier results on in vitro antibacterial activity of preen oil against FDB since the absence of the preen gland did not significantly affect their loads related to the control birds. In contrast, we found that preen gland removal led to higher loads of OCB. This result suggests that the antimicrobial spectrum of the preen oil is broader than previously thought and that, by reducing the overall feather bacterial loads, the preen gland could help birds to protect themselves against a variety of potentially harmful bacteria.     

Quantifying the Effects of Forest Management Strategies on the Production of Forest Values: Timber,Carbon, Oxygen,Water, and Soil

Forest management practices alter forest structure quantified with ecosystem characteristics and values. In this paper, we utilized a forest management simulation model to assess the effects of three forest management strategies focusing on timber production, carbon sequestration, oxygen production, soil erosion, and water production of a forest management unit in Turkey. A forest simulation model “ETÇAPSimülasyon” was developed and used to project forest ecosystem development over 100 years under three forest management policies of timber-oriented forest management (TFM), multipurpose forest management (MFM), and no intervention (NI). The results showed that TFM strategy produced more timber and its net present value than MFM and NI strategies did. The amount of carbon sequestration and oxygen production potential was also found to be the highest with TFM strategy than with the MFM and NI strategies. Compared with the other strategies, however, NI strategy produced the highest amount of water production and soil losses over the planning horizon. The effects of a forest management strategy depend mainly on the initial forest structure, the rate of development and the level of forest management interventions. Therefore, forest dynamics under various management strategies should be explained before the final management decision. Understanding long-term effects of any management strategies on forest structure will provide the basis for better reaching the management objectives.     

Geographic information system–assisted site quality assessment for hazelnut cultivation using multi-criteria decision analysis in the Black Sea region,Turkey

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Developing land suitability models for strategically critical agricultural products to expand sustainable agricultural policies and sensitive...     

A review of plastic pollution in aquatic ecosystems of Turkey

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Turkey is one of the major plastic pollution sources in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This review summarizes present information, data, and...     

Wet oxidation: a pre-treatment procedure for sludge

Wet oxidation process is specially effective for wastes with a high organic matter which can not be removed by conventional treatment methods. The digested and raw activated sludges of PAKMAYA yeast factory are treated by wet oxidation process. The liquid-phase organic matter concentration [as total organic carbon (TOC)] was increased by 16.5% in 10 min during the wet oxidation in the presence of Cu as catalyst and H2O2. Lenghtening the period of the wet oxidation, the TOC-concentration was increased by 66% in 120 min. The biodegradability of the sludge after wet oxidation process was also examined. A very little development in the biodegradability was observed, when wet oxidation was applied as pre-treatment to the digested sludge (5% decrease as TOC, in the presence of Cu catalyst and H2O2). However, in the case of digestion of the raw sludge after the application of wet oxidation, the biodegradability increased significantly (approximately 75%, as TOC). Moreover, wet oxidation improved the ability of settling of sludge solids, as well as enhancing the treatment efficiency. Finally, the volume of settled solids was decreased by 80% in the presence of Cu and H2O2. NH3+-N, NO2(-)-N and NO3(-)-N concentrations in the supernatant decreased with the wet oxidation. pH value of the sludge increased from 6.6 to 7.8-8.0. Since stable sludge was taken from the digester where the nitrification process was progressing, a decrease in the nitrite concentration, with an increase in nitrate was observed in the digestion continuing after the wet oxidation pre-treatment. However, in the raw activated sludge, there was a nitrite formation only in the non-pretreated sludge.     

Disposal of solid waste in Istanbul and along the Black Sea coast of Turkey

The increasing amount of solid waste arising from municipalities and other sources and its consequent disposal has been one of the major environmental problems in Turkey. Istanbul is a metropolitan city with a current population of around 14 million, and produces about 9000 ton of solid waste every day. The waste composition for Istanbul has changed markedly from 1981 to 1996 with large decreases in waste density, much of which is related to decreased amounts of ash collected in winter. In recent years, the Istanbul region has implemented a new solid waste management system with transfer stations, sanitary landfills, and methane recovery, which has led to major improvements. In the Black Sea region of Turkey, most of the municipal and industrial solid wastes, mixed with hospital and hazardous wastes, are dumped on the nearest lowlands and river valleys or into the sea. The impact of riverside and seashore dumping of solid wastes adds significantly to problems arising from sewage and industry on the Black Sea coast. Appropriate integrated solid waste management systems are needed here as well; however, they have been more difficult to implement than in Istanbul because of more difficult topography, weaker administrative structures, and the lower incomes of the inhabitants.     

A familial Xp+ chromosome detected during fetal karyotyping,which is associated with short stature in four generations of a Turkish family

The short-stature homeobox-containing gene (SHOX) on chromosome Xp22.3 was recently identified as an important determinant of the stature phenotype. Deletions of the SHOX gene, some of them due to structural chromosome abnormalities, have been described in patients with idiopathic short stature and Leri-Weill syndrome. Additionally, haploinsufficiency of SHOX is a main cause for short stature seen in patients with Turner syndrome. Here we report an unusual X-chromosome abnormality, which was detected during a fetal karyotyping performed because of a previous child with Down syndrome. GTG banding demonstrated an extra chromosome segment on the terminal part of the short arm of chromosome X in the index case (karyotype: 46,X,Xp+). The same chromosomal abnormality was found in the mother and the maternal grandmother. All carriers of this chromosomal abnormality presented with short stature but no other associated symptoms. Whole chromosome painting of X revealed a homogeneous painting of the abnormal X chromosome indicating that no other chromosome was involved. Additional FISH studies with probe DXS1140 (Kallmann probe at Xp22.3), Quint-Essential X-Specific DNA (DMD probe at Xp21.2), XIST (at Xq13.2), and Tel Xq/Yq were performed, and no abnormality was observed in the intensities or the localizations of the probes signals. However, applying a specific SHOX gene probe (derived from cosmid LLNONO3M34F5) showed a loss of signal on the derivative X chromosome. Our results show that the Xp+ generation led to a deletion of the complete SHOX gene and caused short stature in the presented family. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.