The rise of risk and the decline of politics

This paper argues that the rise of risk and formal risk assessment has contributed to the demise of representative democratic politics by displacing public discourses about values with technical justifications for decision making. Furthermore, risk plays a central role in the displacement of governmental responsibility to private sector and NGO actors at the same time as facilitating government control over citizens—the Janus faces¹ of governance and governmentality. Arguing that the turn to public participation cannot be the panacea for the present situation, the paper concludes by calling for revitalisation of representative institutions, the development of real-time technology assessment and development of popular connoisseurship of science and technology.     

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology.     

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Windscale and Kyshtym: a double anniversary

The autumn of 2007 has seen the fiftieth anniversary of two separate events that were of great importance both for the worldwide nuclear industry and for the science of radioecology. This short article marks this anniversary by briefly reviewing the causes, releases, impacts and legacies of both the Kyshtym accident of September 1957 and the Windscale accident of October 1957.     

Water quality requirements for sustaining aquifer storage and recovery operations in a low permeability fractured rock aquifer

A changing climate and increasing urbanisation has driven interest in the use of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) schemes as an environmental management tool to supplement conventional water resources. This study focuses on ASR with stormwater in a low permeability fractured rock aquifer and the selection of water treatment methods to prevent well clogging. In this study two different injection and recovery phases were trialed. In the first phase ~1380 m(3) of potable water was injected and recovered over four cycles. In the second phase ~3300 m(3) of treated stormwater was injected and ~2410 m(3) were subsequently recovered over three cycles. Due to the success of the potable water injection cycles, its water quality was used to set pre-treatment targets for harvested urban stormwater of ≤ 0.6 NTU turbidity, ≤ 1.7 mg/L dissolved organic carbon and ≤ 0.2 mg/L biodegradable dissolved organic carbon. A range of potential ASR pre-treatment options were subsequently evaluated resulting in the adoption of an ultrafiltration/granular activated carbon system to remove suspended solids and nutrients which cause physical and biological clogging. ASR cycle testing with potable water and treated stormwater demonstrated that urban stormwater containing variable turbidity (mean 5.5 NTU) and organic carbon (mean 8.3 mg/L) concentrations before treatment could be injected into a low transmissivity fractured rock aquifer and recovered for irrigation supplies. A small decline in permeability of the formation in the vicinity of the injection well was apparent even with high quality water that met turbidity and DOC but could not consistently achieve the BDOC criteria.     

Stakeholder Opinions on the Assessment of MPA Effectiveness and Their Interests to Participate at Pacific Rim National Park Reserve,Canada

As the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) is globally increasing, information is needed on the effectiveness of existing sites. Many protected area agencies however have limited resources and are unable to evaluate MPA effectiveness. An evaluation conducted entirely by the managing agency may also lack credibility. Long-term monitoring and evaluation programs should ideally offer opportunities for participation of diverse groups in the selection of evaluation indicators and their assessment. A participatory approach has the potential to enhance evaluation capacity, to increase credibility and acceptance of results, to strengthen relationships between managers and local stakeholders, and to address more locally relevant information. Using a case study approach, this paper investigates diverse stakeholder groups’ opinions on the design of an evaluation and their interest to participate in an assessment. Respondents were most interested in the assessment of MPA achievements and outcome indicators. Most groups identified a range of government agencies and stakeholders that should participate in an assessment but only half of all respondents were interested to participate in monitoring activities. Most frequently mentioned limitations for more participation were a lack of time and money, but also governance shortcomings such as limited participation possibilities and not paying enough credit to stakeholders’ input. Participation interest was also influenced by occupation, place of residency, and familiarity with the marine environment. Differences exist among stakeholders about suitable evaluators and preferred monitoring partners, which could affect the credibility of evaluation results and affect monitoring activities.     

Removal of trichloroethylene from soil using the hydration of calcium oxide

Quicklime addition to soil at a remediation site was observed to sufficiently reduce TCE levels, but the cause of the removal could not be confirmed with the field data collected. Potential mechanisms for CaO treatment of trichloroethylene (TCE) in soil include degradation and volatilization. Since earlier studies found TCE degradation to occur during the hydration of CaO under conditions where volatilization was limited, research was conducted on mechanisms of TCE removal from soil by CaO application under conditions where volatilization was allowed to occur. TCE volatilization in soil treated with 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% CaO doses was measured in experiments where the degree of volatilization could be tracked. The total TCE removal from soil spiked with TCE at CaO doses from 5% to 20% ranged from 97% to 99% of the initial TCE mass. Volatilization accounted for 64.4-92.5% of the TCE removal, with unrecovered TCE and TCE degradation accounting for the remaining fraction. The greater heat encountered with higher CaO doses helped minimize obstacles to TCE volatilization, such as high soil organic and clay content. Treatment with a 20% CaO dose, however, led to the formation of byproducts such as dichloroacetylene. TCE degradation to dichloroacetylene at the 20% CaO dose ranged from 2.7% to 6.4% of the initial TCE. Volatilization was concluded to be the dominant process for TCE removal from soil during CaO treatment.     

Assessing possible visitor-use impacts on water quality in Yosemite National Park, California

There is concern that visitor-use associated activities, such as bathing, dish washing, wastewater production, and stock animal use near lakes and streams, could cause degradation of water quality in Yosemite National Park. A study was conducted during 2004-2007 to assess patterns in nutrient and Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations in the Merced and Tuolumne Rivers and characterize natural background concentrations of nutrients in the park. Results indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations were low, even compared to other undeveloped sites in the United States. A multiple linear regression approach was used to model natural background concentrations of nutrients, with basin characteristics as explanatory variables. Modeled nitrogen concentrations increased with elevation, and modeled phosphorus concentrations increased with basin size. Observed concentrations (±uncertainty) were compared to modeled concentrations (±uncertainty) to identify sites that might be impacted by point sources of nutrients, as indicated by large model residuals. Statistically significant differences in observed and modeled concentrations were observed at only a few locations, indicating that most sites were representative of natural background conditions. The empirical modeling approach used in this study can be used to estimate natural background conditions at any point along a study reach in areas minimally impacted by development, and may be useful for setting water-quality standards in many national parks.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.