Climate change,future Arctic Sea ice,and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets

A significant share of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.     

Effects of pH and microbial composition on odour in food waste composting

A major problem for composting plants is odour emission. Slow decomposition during prolonged low-pH conditions is a frequent process problem in food waste composting. The aim was to investigate correlations between low pH, odour and microbial composition during food waste composting. Samples from laboratory composting experiments and two large scale composting plants were analysed for odour by olfactometry, as well as physico-chemical and microbial composition. There was large variation in odour, and samples clustered in two groups, one with low odour and high pH (above 6.5), the other with high odour and low pH (below 6.0). The low-odour samples were significantly drier, had lower nitrate and TVOC concentrations and no detectable organic acids. Samples of both groups were dominated by Bacillales or Actinobacteria, organisms which are often indicative of well-functioning composting processes, but the high-odour group DNA sequences were similar to those of anaerobic or facultatively anaerobic species, not to typical thermophilic composting species. High-odour samples also contained Lactobacteria and Clostridia, known to produce odorous substances. A proposed odour reduction strategy is to rapidly overcome the low pH phase, through high initial aeration rates and the use of additives such as recycled compost.     

Two decades of experimental manipulations of heaths and forest understory in the subarctic

Current atmospheric warming due to increase of greenhouse gases will have severe consequences for the structure and functioning of arctic ecosystems with changes that, in turn, may feed back on the global-scale composition of the atmosphere. During more than two decades, environmental controls on biological and biogeochemical processes and possible atmospheric feedbacks have been intensely investigated at Abisko, Sweden, by long-term ecosystem manipulations. The research has addressed questions like environmental regulation of plant and microbial community structure and biomass, carbon and nutrient pools and element cycling, including exchange of greenhouse gases and volatile organic compounds, with focus on fundamental processes in the interface between plants, soil and root-associated and free-living soil microorganisms. The ultimate goal has been to infer from these multi-decadal experiments how subarctic and arctic ecosystems will respond to likely environmental changes in the future. Here we give an overview of some of the experiments and main results.     

The World Needs a New Energy Paradigm

During 19–20 October 2009, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences arranged the international symposium Energy 2050 in Stockholm. The symposium was held in association with the Swedish EU presidency in autumn 2009. Internationally renowned scientists assessed the energy issue in a broad perspective, with particular emphasis on the possibilities of a fossil-free future. The symposium focused on key topics emanating from the in-depth energy studies carried through by the Academy´s Energy Committee since 2005. The world community is facing a challenge of historic proportions to define a new energy paradigm based on fossil-energy substitutes. This article gives an overview of the current global energy situation (2007) and of the technologies which have the major potential for supplying energy up to year 2050 without jeopardizing the CO₂ emission targets.     

气候变化与紫外线B辐射对北极苔原和极地荒漠生态系统的影响重要发现和扩展总结

引言 北极已成为对当前气候波动和预计的全球变暖增强的影响进行评估的重要地区.原因有以下几个方面:①在过去几十年中北极经历了大幅度的变暖过程(温度平均升高3℃,而在许多地区温度升高了4～5℃);②气候预测表明气候呈现持续变暖趋势,在2080年之前年平均气温升高4～5℃;③近期的气候变暖正在影响北极的环境和经济,这些影响还会加大,并对生活方式、文化及生态系统造成影响;④北极的变化可能会影响到地球上的其它地区.     

气候变化对景观和区域过程的影响及其对气候系统的反馈

北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向.     

Crypsis versus intimidation—anti-predation defence in three closely related butterflies

Butterflies that hibernate exhibit particularly efficient defence against predation. A first line of defence is crypsis, and most hibernating butterflies are leaf mimics. When discovered, some species have a second line of defence; the peacock, I. io, when attacked by a predator flicks its wings open exposing large eyespots and performs an intimidating threat display. Here we test the hypothesis that butterflies relying solely on leaf mimicking and butterflies with an intimidating wing pattern, when attacked, exhibit different behavioural suites—because leaf mimicking is best implemented by immobility, whereas intimidating coloration is best implemented by intimidating behaviour. In laboratory experiments blue tits, Parus caeruleus, were allowed 40 min to attack single individuals of three species of butterfly: one relying solely on crypsis, the comma, Polygonia c-album; one relying on intimidating wing pattern in addition to crypsis, the peacock; and one intermediate species, the small tortoiseshell Aglais urticae. The results are in accordance with expectations and demonstrate that: (1) birds take longer to discover the leaf mimicking species, the comma, than the tortoiseshell and the peacock; (2) the comma remained motionless throughout experimental trials but small tortoiseshells and peacocks flicked their wings when attacked; (3) the most intimidating butterfly, the peacock, started flicking its wings at a greater distance from the attacking bird than the small tortoiseshell; and (4) the intimidating pattern and behaviour of peacocks was effective—when discovered, all peacocks survived interactions with blue tits, whereas only 22% of commas and 8% of small tortoiseshells survived.     

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate is obtained from experiments in the laboratory. Phosphorus in the sediment can be divided into exchangeable and non-exchangeable phosphorus. The exchangeable phosphorus is decomposed in accordance with a first-order reaction. The phosphorus moves, after the decomposition process, from the interstitial water to the water phase, in accordance with a diffusion expression. The yearly increase of the sediment was determined by means of the lead concentration as a function of the depth.