Renewable Energy

The Energy Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has in a series of projects gathered information and knowledge on renewable energy from various sources, both within and outside the academic world. In this article, we synthesize and summarize some of the main points on renewable energy from the various Energy Committee projects and the Committee’s Energy 2050 symposium, regarding energy from water and wind, bioenergy, and solar energy. We further summarize the Energy Committee’s scenario estimates of future renewable energy contributions to the global energy system, and other presentations given at the Energy 2050 symposium. In general, international coordination and investment in energy research and development is crucial to enable future reliance on renewable energy sources with minimal fossil fuel use.     

Current and future emission estimates of exhaust gases and particles from shipping at the largest port in Korea

The emissions of exhaust gases (NO _x , SO₂, VOCs, and CO₂) and particles (e.g., PM) from ships traversing Busan Port in Korea were estimated over three different years (the years 2006, 2008, and 2009). This analysis was performed according to the ship operational modes (“at sea,” “maneuvering,” and “in port”) and ship types based on an activity-based method. The ship emissions for current (base year 2009) and future scenarios (years 2020 and 2050) were also compared. The annual emissions of SO₂, VOCs, PM, and CO₂ were highest (9.6?×?10³, 374, 1.2?×?10³, and 5.6?×?10⁵ ton year^?1, respectively) in 2008. In contrast, the annual NO _x emissions were highest (11.7?×?10³ ton year^?1) in 2006 due mainly to the high NO _x emission factor. The emissions of air pollutants for each ship operational mode differed considerably, with the largest emission observed in “in port” mode. In addition, the largest fraction (approximately 45–67 %) of the emissions of all air pollutants during the study period was emitted from container ships. The future ship emissions of most pollutants (except for SO₂ and PM) in 2020 and 2050 are estimated to be 1.4–1.8 and 4.7–6.1 times higher than those in 2009 (base year), respectively.     

Summary of the 1991 EPRI/EPA/DOE SO2 Control Symposium

The 1991 SO₂ Control Symposium was held December 3-6, 1991, in Washington, D.C. The symposium, jointly sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), focused attention on recent improvements in conventional sulfur dioxide (SO₂) control technologies, emerging processes, and strategies for complying with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Its purpose was to provide a forum for the exchange of technical and regulatory information on SO₂ control technology. Over 800 representatives of 20 countries from government, academia, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) process suppliers, equipment manufacturers, engineering firms, and utilities attended. In all, 50 U.S. utilities and 10 utilities in other countries were represented. In 11 technical sessions, a diverse group of speakers presented 111 technical papers on development, operation, and commercialization of wet and dry FGD, Clean Coal Technologies, and combined sulfur dioxide/nitrogen oxides (SO₂/NO_x processes.     

Reduced European emissions of S and N--effects on air concentrations, deposition and soil water chemistry in Swedish forests

Changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution in Swedish forests have been assessed in relation to European emission reductions, based on measurements in the Swedish Throughfall Monitoring Network. Measurements were analysed over 20 years with a focus on the 12-year period 1996 to 2008. Air concentrations of SO₂ and NO₂, have decreased. The SO₄-deposition has decreased in parallel with the European emission reductions. Soil water SO₄-concentrations have decreased at most sites but the pH, ANC and inorganic Al-concentrations indicated acidification recovery only at some of the sites. No changes in the bulk deposition of inorganic nitrogen could be demonstrated. Elevated NO₃-concentrations in the soil water occurred at irregular occasions at some southern sites. Despite considerable air pollution emission reductions in Europe, acidification recovery in Swedish forests soils is slow. Nitrogen deposition to Swedish forests continues at elevated levels that may lead to leaching of nitrate to surface waters.     

Global potential of phosphorus recovery from human urine and feces

This study geospatially quantifies the mass of an essential fertilizer element, phosphorus, available from human urine and feces, globally, regionally, and by specific country. The analysis is performed over two population scenarios (2009 and 2050). This important material flow is related to the presence of improved sanitation facilities and also considers the global trend of urbanization. Results show that in 2009 the phosphorus available from urine is approximately 1.68 million metric tons (with similar mass available from feces). If collected, the phosphorus available from urine and feces could account for 22% of the total global phosphorus demand. In 2050 the available phosphorus from urine that is associated with population increases only will increase to 2.16 million metric tons (with similar mass available from feces). The available phosphorus from urine and feces produced in urban settings is currently approximately 0.88 million metric tons and will increase with population growth to over 1.5 million metric tons by 2050. Results point to the large potential source of human-derived phosphorus in developing regions like Africa and Asia that have a large population currently unserved by improved sanitation facilities. These regions have great potential to implement urine diversion and reuse and composting or recovery of biosolids, because innovative technologies can be integrated with improvements in sanitation coverage. In contrast, other regions with extensive sanitation coverage like Europe and North America need to determine how to retrofit existing sanitation technology combined that is combined with human behavioral changes to recover phosphorus and other valuable nutrients.     

1987 Joint EPRI/EPA Symposium on Stationary Combustion NOX Control

From March 23rd to 26th, 1987, the city of New Orleans hosted 350 attendees, including representatives from 15 foreign countries, at the 1987 Joint Symposium on Stationary Combustion NO_x Control. Cosponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the symposium provided attendees the opportunity to hear 49 papers in nine sessions covering technological and regulatory developments on NO_x control in the United States and abroad since the May 1985 symposium in Boston. Session topics included general environmental issues, low-NO_x combustion equipment (i.e., low-NO_x burners, reburning, etc.), flue gas treatment, fundamental combustion research, and special issues for cyclone coal-fueled boilers, oil- and gas-fired boilers, and industrial combustion applications.

Advances to the state-of-the-art presented at this symposium include: improved and/or newly applied combustion modifications for pulverized coal-fired boilers; further analyses of reburning, the leading combustion modification option for cyclone-equipped boilers; initial experiences with catalytic flue gas treatment in Europe; studies of NO_x control retrofit options for oil- and gas-fired utility systems; and new technology developments for coal, oil, and gas fueled utility and industrial combustors.

This paper summarizes those presentations that discussed significant changes since May 1985 in areas of potential interest to EPRI and its utility members. Where appropriate, they include our perspectives on the applicability of these newly disclosed findings to utility systems.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Air Pollution Emissions from Increased Industrial Coal Use in the Northeastern United States

Evaluating the air pollution impacts of energy use in the industrial sector is difficult because of the diversity and multiplicity of sources and a general lack of systematic, up-to-date data collection mechanisms. Fuel-specific energy consumption for a multi-state region is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy PIES model for a base year (1975), together with scenarios for future years. A computer model developed in this study—the Sub-regional Energy and Emissions Model (SEEM)—is applied to disaggregate the regional industrial figures to the county level according to fuel type and industrial category at the two-digit SIC level. The resulting emissions of total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) for all industrial categories are estimated at the county level by Incorporating county-specific air pollution regulations in SEEM, and are then aggregated to larger geographical regions. The model has been applied to evaluate the increased air pollution impacts of industrial energy use in the northeastern United States for two alternative 1990 scenarios: (1) the midrange/trendlong PIES projections, and (2) a Coal Replacement Scenario, which assumes a higher percentage of fuel burned in new boilers will be coal. The results are discussed in terms of implications for air pollution control policy.     

Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001–2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.     

European Community Can Reduce CO2 Emissions by Sixty Percent: A Feasibility Study

Carbon dioxide (CO₂,) emissions in the European Community (EC) can be reduced by roughly 60 percent. A great many measures need to be taken to reach this reduction, with a total annual cost of ECU 55 milliard. Fossil fuel use is the main cause of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; CO₂ emissions are to a large extent responsible for the greenhouse effect. Energy saving (conservation) and nuclear energy appear to be the least expensive methods of CO₂, abatement, directly followed by renewables. More expensive alternatives include the separation of CO₂, at the source (e.g., power plants), followed by storage in depleted gas fields, aquifers, or in the ocean. Biological options, such as reforestation and energy farming, are the most expensive abatement methods; however, they do have secondary advantages, such as avoided fallow premiums and avoided export premiums on cereals. Application of all measures together can lead to the 60 percent reduction goal.     

“Cold Side” Precipitators

The apparent present effect of regional pollutant loads on crops and forests in the central midwest states was evaluated as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES). The consequences of the local and regional loadings of SO₂ and O₃ for agricultural yields are summarized as “crop-loss coefficients,” based on the published experimental effects data, and applied to agricultural lands in the Ohio Valley region through regional monitoring of the two pollutant gases. The results are shown as upper and lower bounds containing the most probable crop loss values. The results also are reported as total potential increases in crop yields for the ORBES region, expressed as bushels, appropriate, within the limits of uncertainty, for economic and related energy policy evaluations.     

Life cycle energy use,costs, and greenhouse gas emission of broiler farms in different production systems in Iran—a case study of Alborz province

In order to achieve sustainable development in agriculture, it is necessary to quantify and compare the energy, economic, and environmental aspects of products. This paper studied the energy, economic, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission patterns in broiler chicken farms in the Alborz province of Iran. We studied the effect of the broiler farm size as different production systems on the energy, economic, and environmental indices. Energy use efficiency (EUE) and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) were 0.16 and 1.11, respectively. Diesel fuel and feed contributed the most in total energy inputs, while feed and chicks were the most important inputs in economic analysis. GHG emission calculations showed that production of 1000 birds produces 19.13 t CO_2-eq and feed had the highest share in total GHG emission. Total GHG emissions based on different functional units were 8.5 t CO_2-eq per t of carcass and 6.83 kg CO_2-eq per kg live weight. Results of farm size effect on EUE revealed that large farms had better energy management. For BCR, there was no significant difference between farms. Lower total GHG emissions were reported for large farms, caused by better management of inputs and fewer bird losses. Large farms with more investment had more efficient equipment, resulting in a decrease of the input consumption. In view of our study, it is recommended to support the small-scale broiler industry by providing subsidies to promote the use of high-efficiency equipment. To decrease the amount of energy usage and GHG emissions, replacing heaters (which use diesel fuel) with natural gas heaters can be considered. In addition to the above recommendations, the use of energy saving light bulbs may reduce broiler farm electricity consumption.     

Options for Change in the Australian Energy Profile

Climate change is occurring largely as a result of increasing CO₂ emissions whose reduction requires greater efficiency in energy production and use and diversification of energy sources away from fossil fuels. These issues were central to the United Nation climate change discussions in Durban in December 2011 where it was agreed that a legally binding agreement to decrease greenhouse gas emissions should be reached by 2015. In the interim, nations were left with the agreement reached at the analogous 2009 Copenhagen and 2010 Cancun meetings that atmospheric CO₂ levels should be constrained to limit the global temperature rise to 2 °C. However, the route to this objective was largely left to individual nations to decide. It is within this context that options for reduction in the 95 % fossil fuel dependency and high CO₂ emissivity of the Australian energy profile using current technologies are considered. It is shown that electricity generation in particular presents significant options for changing to a less fossil fuel dependent and CO₂ emissive energy profile.     

Emissions Tradeoffs among Alternative Marine Fuels: Total Fuel Cycle Analysis of Residual Oil,Marine Gas Oil,and Marine Diesel Oil

Abstract

Worldwide concerns about sulfur oxide (SO_x) emissions from ships are motivating the replacement of marine residual oil (RO) with cleaner, lower-sulfur fuels, such as marine gas oil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO). Vessel operators can use MGO and MDO directly or blended with RO to achieve environmental and economic objectives. Although expected to be much cleaner in terms of criteria pollutants, these fuels require additional energy in the upstream stages of the fuel cycle (i.e., fuel processing and refining), and thus raise questions about the net impacts on greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide [CO₂]) because of production and use. This paper applies the Total Energy and Environmental Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model to conduct a total fuel cycle analysis of RO, MGO, MDO, and associated blends for a typical container ship. MGO and MDO blends achieve significant (70–85%) SO_x emissions reductions compared with RO across a range of fuel quality and refining efficiency assumptions. We estimate CO₂ increases of less than 1% using best estimates of fuel quality and refinery efficiency parameters and demonstrate how these results vary based on parameter assumptions. Our analysis suggests that product refining efficiency influences the CO₂ tradeoff more than differences in the physical and energy parameters of the alternative fuels, suggesting that modest increases in CO₂ could be offset by efficiency improvements at some refineries. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of greenhouse gas tradeoffs associated with fuel switching and other emissions control policies.     

Multi-Decadal Changes in Snow Characteristics in Sub-Arctic Sweden

A unique long term, 49-year record (divided into three time periods 1961–1976, 1977–1992, and 1993–2009) of snow profile stratigraphy from the Swedish sub Arctic, was analyzed with a focus on changes in snow characteristics. The data set contained grain size, snow layer hardness, grain compactness, and snow layer dryness, observed every second week during the winter season. The results showed an increase in very hard snow layers, with harder snow in early winter and more moist snow during spring. There was a striking increase in the number of observations with very hard snow at ground level over time. More than twice as many occasions with hard snow at ground level were observed between 1993 and 2009 compared to previous years, which may have a significant effect on plants and animals. The changes in snow characteristics are most likely a result of the increasing temperatures during the start and the end of the snow season.     

Responses of future air quality to emission controls over North Carolina,Part II: Analyses of future-year predictions and their policy implications

The MM5/CMAQ system evaluated in Part I paper is applied to study the impact of emission control on future air quality over North Carolina (NC). Simulations are conducted at a 4-km horizontal grid resolution for four one-month periods, i.e., January, June, July, and August 2009 and 2018. Simulated PM_2.5 in 2009 and 2018 show distribution patterns similar to those in 2002. PM_2.5 concentrations over the whole domain in January and July reduced by 5.8% and 23.3% in 2009 and 12.0% and 35.6% in 2018, respectively, indicating that the planned emission control strategy has noticeable effects on PM_2.5 reduction in this region, particularly in summer. More than 10% and 20% of 1-h and 8-h O₃ mixing ratios are reduced in July 2009 and 2018, respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of emission control for O₃ reduction in summer. However, O₃ mixing ratios in January 2009 and 2018 increase by more than 5% because O₃ chemistry is VOC-limited in winter and the effect of NO_x reduction dominates over that of VOC reduction under such a condition. The projected emission control simulated at 4-km will reduce the number of sites in non-attainment for max 8-h O₃ from 49 to 23 in 2009 and to 1 in 2018 and for 24-h average PM_2.5 from 1 to 0 in 2009 and 2018 based on the latest 2008 O₃ and 2006 PM_2.5 standards. The variability in model predictions at different grid resolutions contributes to 1–3.8 ppb and 1–7.9 μg m^?3 differences in the projected future-year design values for max 8-h O₃ and 24-h average PM_2.5, respectively.     

A Comprehensive Inventory of the Ship Traffic Exhaust Emissions in the Baltic Sea from 2006 to 2009

This study addresses the exhaust emissions of CO₂, NO_x, SO_x, CO, and PM_2.5 originated from Baltic Sea shipping in 2006–2009. Numerical results have been computed using the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model. This model is based on the messages of the automatic identification system (AIS), which enable the positioning of ships with a high spatial resolution. The NO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 7 % higher than in 2006, despite the economic recession. However, the SO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 14 % lower, when compared to those in 2006, mainly caused by the fuel requirements of the SO_x emission control area (SECA) which became effective in May 2006, but affected also by changes in ship activity. Results are presented on the differential geographic distribution of shipping emissions before (Jan–April 2006) and after (Jan–April 2009) the SECA regulations. The predicted NO_x emissions in 2009 substantially exceeded the emissions in 2006 along major ship routes and at numerous harbors, mostly due to the continuous increase in the number of small vessels that use AIS transmitters. Although the SO_x emissions have been reduced in 2009 in most major ship routes, these have increased in the vicinity of some harbors and on some densely trafficked routes. A seasonal variation of emissions is also presented, as well as the distribution of emissions in terms of vessel flag state, type, and weight.     

Consequences of nitrate leaching following stem-only harvesting of Swedish forests are dependent on spatial scale

Short-term increases in soil solution nitrate (NO₃⁻) concentration are often observed after forest harvest, even in N-limited systems. We model NO₃⁻ leaching below the rooting zone as a function of site productivity. Using national forest inventories and published estimates of N attenuation in rivers and the riparian zone, we estimate effects of stem-only harvesting on NO₃⁻ leaching to groundwater, surface waters and the marine environment. Stem-only harvesting is a minor contributor to NO₃⁻ pollution of Swedish waters. Effects in surface waters are rapidly diluted downstream, but can be locally important for shallow well-waters as well as for the total amount of N reaching the sea. Harvesting adds approximately 8 Gg NO₃-N to soil waters in Sweden, with local concentrations up to 7 mg NO₃-N l⁻¹. Of that, ∼3.3 Gg reaches the marine environment. This is ∼3% of the overall Swedish N load to the Baltic.     

Quantification and radiocarbon source apportionment of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols using the CTO-375 method

To make progress towards linking the atmosphere and biogeosphere parts of the black carbon (BC) cycle, a chemothermal oxidation method (CTO-375), commonly applied for isolating BC from complex geomatrices such as soils, sediments and aquatic particles, was applied to investigate the BC also in atmospheric particles. Concentrations and ¹⁴C-based source apportionment of CTO-375 based BC was established for a reference aerosol (NIST RM-8785) and for wintertime aerosols collected in Stockholm and in a Swedish background area. The results were compared with thermal–optical (OC/EC) measurements. For NIST RM-8785, a good agreement was found between the BC_CTO-375 concentration and the reported elemental carbon (EC) concentration measured by the “Speciation Trends Network—National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health” method (EC_NIOSH) with BC_CTO-375 of 0.054±0.002 g g⁻¹ and EC_NIOSH of 0.067±0.008 g g⁻¹. In contrast, there was an average factor of ca. 20 difference between BC_CTO-375 and EC_NIOSH for the ambient Scandinavian wintertime aerosols, presumably reflecting a combination of BC_CTO-375 isolating only the recalcitrant soot-BC portion of the BC continuum and the EC_NIOSH metric inadvertently including some intrinsically non-pyrogenic organic matter. Isolation of BC_CTO-375 with subsequent off-line radiocarbon analysis yielded fraction modern values (fM) for total organic carbon (TOC) of 0.93 (aerosols from a Swedish background area), and 0.58 (aerosols collected in Stockholm); whereas the fM for BC_CTO-375 isolates were 1.08 (aerosols from a Swedish background area), and 0.87 (aerosols collected in Stockholm). This radiocarbon-based source apportionment suggests that contribution from biomass combustion to cold-season atmospheric BC_CTO-375 in Stockholm was 70% and in the background area 88%.     

Visible-light driven oxidation of gaseous aliphatic alcohols to the corresponding carbonyls via TiO2 sensitized by a perylene derivative

Sensitized P25 TiO₂ was prepared by wet impregnation with a home-prepared perylene dye, i.e., N,N′-bis(2-(1-piperazino)ethyl)-3,4,9,10-perylene-tetracarboxylic acid diimide dichloride (PZPER). Energy levels of PZPER were found to be compatible with those of TiO₂ allowing fast electron transfer. The obtained catalyst has been characterized and used in the gas-phase partial oxidation of aliphatic primary and secondary alcohols, i.e., methanol, ethanol, and 2-propanol. The reaction was carried out under cut-off (λ?>?400 nm) simulated solar radiation in O₂ atmosphere. The perylene derivative allowed a good absorbance of visible radiation thanks to its low optical energy gap (2.6 eV) which was evaluated by cyclic voltammetry. The optimal organic sensitizing amount was found to be 5.6 % w/w in terms of yield in carbonyl derivatives. Moreover, no change in reactivity/selectivity was observed after 10-h irradiation thus confirming the catalyst stability. Yields into formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acetone were 67, 70, and 96 %, respectively. No significant amounts of organic byproducts were detected but for methanol oxidation, whereas a minor amount of the substrate degraded to CO₂.