Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

安徽省淮河流域水污染分析与环境目标可达性探讨

介绍了安徽省淮河流域水污染的历史与现状,分析了淮河流域水污染的特点,对实现《淮河流域水污染防治“十五”计划》的可能性进行了探讨。     

锌、铝的激光-时间分辨荧光测定

本文报道了以７碘８羟基喹啉５磺酸作荧光增强剂的Ｚｎ、Ａｌ激光时间分辨荧光测定方法。方法检出限分别为２５μｇ／Ｌ和１０μｇ／Ｌ。用牛肝粉标准品（ＮＢＳ１５７７ａ）进行了验证     

Mathematical balance models for monitoring the state of Lake Baikal

The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System.     

基于B-P神经网络的环境质量评价方法

提出可将环境质量评价的无论是定量指标还是定性参数转化成"二进制"的"1"或"0",进而将这种二进制数引入B-P网络.通过实例探讨,这种新的B-P网络既适用于定量指标的水质参数又适用于定性指标的水质参数.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Measurements of fractionated gaseous mercury concentrations over northwestern and central Europe, 1995-99

Although it makes up only a few per cent. of total gaseous mercury (TGM) in the atmosphere, the fraction of oxidised (divalent) mercury plays a major role in the biogeochemical cycle of mercury due to its high affinity for water and surfaces. Quantitative knowledge of this fraction present in mixing ratios in the parts-per-10(15) (ppq) range is currently very scarce. This work is based on approximately 220 data for divalent gaseous mercury (DGM) collected during 1995-99 in ambient air. Over the course of the measurements, the sampling and analytical methods were modified and improved. This is described here in detail and includes transition from wet leaching and reduction procedures to thermo-reductive desorption, the use of annular as well as tubular denuders and adoption of an automated sampling system. The concentration of DGM exhibited a strong seasonal behaviour in contrast to atomic gaseous mercury, with low values in winter and maximum values in summer. The DGM/TGM ratios were frequently found to be below the detection limit (< or = 1%) and in the range 1-5%. A trend of diurnal DGM patterns was observed and implies photolytically induced sources. Scavenging of DGM during rain events was also noticed.     

Methane emissions from natural wetlands

Methane is considered one of the most important greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Because of the strict anaerobic conditions required by CH₄-generating microorganisms, natural wetland ecosystems are one of the main sources of biogenic CH₄. The total natural wetland area is estimated to be 5.3 to 5.7 × 10¹² m², making up less than 5% of the Earth's land surface. However, natural wetland plays a disproportionately large role in CH₄ emissions. Wetlands are likely the largest natural sources of CH₄ to the atmosphere, accounting for about 20% of the current global annual emission. Out of the total amount of CH₄ emitted, northern wetlands contribute 34%, temperate wetlands 5%, and tropical systems about 60%.Because of the unique characteristics and high productivity, wetland ecosystems are important in the global carbon cycle. Natural wetlands are permanently or temporarily saturated. Strict anaerobic conditions consequently develop, which allows methanogenesis to occur. But the thin oxic layer and the oxic plant rhizophere promote activity of CH₄-oxidizing bacteria or methanotrophs. Thus, both CH₄ formation and consumption in wetland systems are microbiological processes and are controlled by many factors. Eight of the controlling factors, including carbon supply, soil oxidation-reduction status, pH, temperature, vegetation, salinity and sulfate content, soil hydrological conditions and CH₄ oxidation are discussed in this paper.     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

内蒙古某灌域表层土壤六氯环己烷空间分布特征及影响因素

为修复灌区内土壤有机氯农药污染，降低六氯环己烷对土壤环境的危害，对内蒙古某灌域表层土壤进行采样，利用气相色谱测定50个土壤样品中六氯环己烷及其异构体的含量，并利用ArcGIS空间分析技术确定表层土壤中六氯环己烷的分布状况。样本中六氯环己烷的检出率为96%，各样本中六氯环己烷的浓度范围为未检出~23.0 ng/g，平均浓度为4.4 ng/g。4种异构体含量平均值顺序为γ-六氯环己烷>δ-六氯环己烷>β-六氯环己烷>α-六氯环己烷。灌域东北部和西南部残留浓度较高，并由这2个方向向中部地区逐渐递减，表层土壤中的六氯环己烷分布受土壤黏粒量、不同种植种类和灌溉水源的影响较大。虽受人类耕作的影响，但表层土壤中的六氯环己烷污染水平相对较低。