Assessment of basin-scale hydrologic impacts of CO2 sequestration,Illinois basin

Idealized, basin-scale sharp-interface models of CO₂ injection were constructed for the Illinois basin. Porosity and permeability were decreased with depth within the Mount Simon Formation. Eau Claire confining unit porosity and permeability were kept fixed. We used 726 injection wells located near 42 power plants to deliver 80 million metric tons of CO₂/year. After 100 years of continuous injection, deviatoric fluid pressures varied between 5.6 and 18 MPa across central and southern part of the Illinois basin. Maximum deviatoric pressure reached about 50% of lithostatic levels to the south. The pressure disturbance (>0.03 MPa) propagated 10–25 km away from the injection wells resulting in significant well–well pressure interference. These findings are consistent with single-phase analytical solutions of injection. The radial footprint of the CO₂ plume at each well was only 0.5–2 km after 100 years of injection. Net lateral brine displacement was insignificant due to increasing radial distance from injection well and leakage across the Eau Claire confining unit. On geologic time scales CO₂ would migrate northward at a rate of about 6 m/1000 years. Because of paleo-seismic events in this region (M5.5–M7.5), care should be taken to avoid high pore pressures in the southern Illinois basin.     

Methods of characterizing the distribution of exhaust emissions from light-duty, gasoline-powered motor vehicles in the U.S. fleet

Mobile sources significantly contribute to ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM). Source apportionment studies for PM10 (PM < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM2.5 (PM < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) indicate that mobile sources can be responsible for over half of the ambient PM measured in an urban area. Recent source apportionment studies attempted to differentiate between contributions from gasoline and diesel motor vehicle combustion. Several source apportionment studies conducted in the United States suggested that gasoline combustion from mobile sources contributed more to ambient PM than diesel combustion. However, existing emission inventories for the United States indicated that diesels contribute more than gasoline vehicles to ambient PM concentrations. A comprehensive testing program was initiated in the Kansas City metropolitan area to measure PM emissions in the light-duty, gasoline-powered, on-road mobile source fleet to provide data for PM inventory and emissions modeling. The vehicle recruitment design produced a sample that could represent the regional fleet, and by extension, the national fleet. All vehicles were recruited from a stratified sample on the basis of vehicle class (car, truck) and model-year group. The pool of available vehicles was drawn primarily from a sample of vehicle owners designed to represent the selected demographic and geographic characteristics of the Kansas City population. Emissions testing utilized a portable, light-duty chassis dynamometer with vehicles tested using the LA-92 driving cycle, on-board emissions measurement systems, and remote sensing devices. Particulate mass emissions were the focus of the study, with continuous and integrated samples collected. In addition, sample analyses included criteria gases (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitric oxide/nitrogen dioxide, hydrocarbons), air toxics (speciated volatile organic compounds), and PM constituents (elemental/organic carbon, metals, semi-volatile organic compounds). Results indicated that PM emissions from the in-use fleet varied by up to 3 orders of magnitude, with emissions generally increasing for older model-year vehicles. The study also identified a strong influence of ambient temperature on vehicle PM mass emissions, with rates increasing with decreasing temperatures.     

Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change

In this study we investigate how thermal power plants with once-through cooling could be affected by future climate change impacts on river water temperatures and stream flow. We introduce a model of a steam turbine power plant with once-through cooling at a river site and simulate how its production could be constrained in scenarios ranging from a one degree to a five degree increase of river temperature and a 10–50% decrease of stream flow. We apply the model to simulate a large nuclear power plant in Central Europe. We calculate annual average load reductions, which can be up to 11.8%, assuming unchanged stream flow, which leads to average annual income losses of up to 80 million €. Considering simultaneous changes in stream flow will exacerbate the problem and may increase average annual costs to 111 million € in a worst-case scenario. The model demonstrates that power generation could be severely constrained by typical climate impacts, such as increasing river temperatures and decreasing stream flow.     

Evaluating the BANCS Streambank Erosion Framework on the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain

The Bank Assessment of Nonpoint source Consequences of Sediment (BANCS) framework allows river scientists to predict annual sediment yield from eroding streambanks within a hydrophysiographic region. BANCS involves field data collection and the calibration of an empirical model incorporating a bank erodibility hazard index (BEHI) and near‐bank shear stress (NBS) estimate. Here we evaluate the applicability of BANCS to the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal plain, a region that has not been previously studied in this context. Erosion rates averaged over two years expressed the highest variability of any existing BANCS study. As a result, four standard BANCS models did not yield statistically significant correlations to measured erosion rates. Modifications to two widely used NBS estimates improved their correlations (r² = 0.31 and r² = 0.33), but further grouping of the data by BEHI weakened these correlations. The high variability in measured erosion rates is partly due to the regional hydrologic and climatic characteristics of the Gulf coastal plains, which include large, infrequent precipitation events. Other sources of variability include variations in bank vegetation and the complex hydro‐ and morphodynamics of meandering, sand bed channels. We discuss directions for future research in developing a streambank erosion model for this and similar regions.     

Understanding the total life cycle cost implications of reusing structural steel

Reuse of structural steel could be an environmentally superior alternative to the current practice, which is to recycle the majority (88%) of scrap steel. In spite of the potential benefits, and in a time when “sustainability” and “climate change” are critical societal issues, the question arises: why are greater rates of structural steel reuse not being observed? One of the major factors in the rate of structural steel reuse is how decision-makers understand the life cycle implications of their choice to recycle steel rather than reuse it. This paper contributes towards our understanding of these implications, particularly the cost implications, of reuse as an alternative to recycling by presenting a streamlined life cycle analysis and identifying the major contributors to each process. The results of a case study indicate that a significant reduction in some life cycle impact metrics (greenhouse gas emissions, water use) can result from reusing structural steel rather than recycling it. The largest contributors to the life cycle impact of recycling were the shredding, melting, and forming sub-processes. The largest contributor to reuse was the deconstruction sub-process. A total life cycle cost analysis is performed to understand the cost of damages to the environment and human health in combination with the cost of construction activities. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are also conducted to quantify variability in the results and determine economic conditions where the two processes have an equal cost.     

Plant and Soil Responses to High and Low Diversity Grassland Restoration Practices

The USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has predominantly used only a few species of dominant prairie grasses (CP2 practice) to reduce soil erosion, but recently has offered a higher diversity planting practice (CP25) to increase grassland habitat quality. We quantified plant community composition in CP25 and CP2 plantings restored for 4 or 8 years and compared belowground properties and processes among restorations and continuously cultivated soils in southeastern Nebraska, USA. Relative to cultivated soils, restoration increased soil microbial biomass (P = 0.033), specifically fungi (P < 0.001), and restored soils exhibited higher rates of carbon (C) mineralization (P = 0.010). High and low diversity plantings had equally diverse plant communities; however, CP25 plantings had greater frequency of cool-season (C₃) grasses (P = 0.007). Older (8 year) high diversity restorations contained lower microbial biomass (P = 0.026), arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) biomass (P = 0.003), and C mineralization rates (P = 0.028) relative to 8 year low diversity restorations; older plantings had greater root biomass than 4 year plantings in all restorations (P = 0.001). Low diversity 8 year plantings contained wider root C:N ratios, and higher soil microbial biomass, microbial community richness, AMF biomass, and C mineralization rate relative to 4 year restorations (P < 0.050). Net N mineralization and nitrification rates were lower in 8 year than 4 year high diversity plantings (P = 0.005). We attributed changes in soil C and N pools and fluxes to increased AMF associated with C₄ grasses in low diversity plantings. Thus, reduced recovery of AMF in high diversity plantings restricted restoration of belowground microbial diversity and microbially-mediated soil processes over time.     

Evaluation of Methods for Controlling Vehicular Exhaust

In late 1965 the Pennsylvania Air Pollution Commission appointed a Council of Technical Advisors to develop air quality criteria. Recently, this Council set forth its recommendations for ten pollutants. The philosophy of the Council is expressed. The major difficulties and rational are mentioned. The recommendations are given and the potential use of the criterion is also explained.     

Socio-ecological implications of modifying rotation lengths in forestry

The rotation length is a key component of even-aged forest management systems. Using Fennoscandian forestry as a case, we review the socio-ecological implications of modifying rotation lengths relative to current practice by evaluating effects on a range of ecosystem services and on biodiversity conservation. The effects of shortening rotations on provisioning services are expected to be mostly negative to neutral (e.g. production of wood, bilberries, reindeer forage), while those of extending rotations would be more varied. Shortening rotations may help limit damage by some of today’s major damaging agents (e.g. root rot, cambium-feeding insects), but may also increase other damage types (e.g. regeneration pests) and impede climate mitigation. Supporting (water, soil nutrients) and cultural (aesthetics, cultural heritage) ecosystem services would generally be affected negatively by shortened rotations and positively by extended rotations, as would most biodiversity indicators. Several effect modifiers, such as changes to thinning regimes, could alter these patterns.     

Replacing monocultures with mixed-species stands: Ecosystem service implications of two production forest alternatives in Sweden

Whereas there is evidence that mixed-species approaches to production forestry in general can provide positive outcomes relative to monocultures, it is less clear to what extent multiple benefits can be derived from specific mixed-species alternatives. To provide such insights requires evaluations of an encompassing suite of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and forest management considerations provided by specific mixtures and monocultures within a region. Here, we conduct such an assessment in Sweden by contrasting even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies)-dominated stands, with mixed-species stands of spruce and birch (Betula pendula or B. pubescens), or spruce and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). By synthesizing the available evidence, we identify positive outcomes from mixtures including increased biodiversity, water quality, esthetic and recreational values, as well as reduced stand vulnerability to pest and pathogen damage. However, some uncertainties and risks were projected to increase, highlighting the importance of conducting comprehensive interdisciplinary evaluations when assessing the pros and cons of mixtures.     

Evaluating common drivers for color,iron and organic carbon in Swedish watercourses

The recent browning (increase in color) of surface waters across much of the northern hemisphere has important implications for light climate, ecosystem functioning, and drinking water treatability. Using log-linear regressions and long-term (6–21 years) data from 112 Swedish watercourses, we identified temporal and spatial patterns in browning-related parameters [iron, absorbance, and total organic carbon (TOC)]. Flow variability and lakes in the catchment were major influences on all parameters. Co-variation between seasonal, discharge-related, and trend effects on iron, TOC, and absorbance were dependent on pH, landscape position, catchment size, latitude, and dominant land cover. Large agriculture-dominated catchments had significantly larger trends in iron, TOC, and water color than small forest catchments. Our results suggest that while similarities exist, no single mechanism can explain the observed browning but show that multiple mechanisms related to land cover, climate, and acidification history are responsible for the ongoing browning of surface waters.