SEASONAL ARIMA INFLOW MODELS FOR RESERVOIR SIZING1

ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.     

Fate and behavior of metal(loid) contaminants in an organic matter-rich shooting range soil: Implications for remediation

This study investigates the fate and behavior of lead (Pb), copper (Cu), antimony (Sb), and arsenic (As) in a shooting range soil. The soil samples were collected from the surface (0–15 cm) and the subsurface (15–40 cm and 40–55 cm) of a grassy and wood chip covered impact area behind a firing position. Optical microscopy images indicate significant amounts of corroded bullet fragments and organic wood chips in the surface soil. Analysis by X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) and scanning electron microscopy electron dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) showed that metallic Pb was transformed into lead oxides (litharge PbO and massicot PbO) and lead carbonates (hydrocerussite Pb₃(CO₃)₂(OH)₂, cerussite PbCO₃, and plumbonacrite Pb₅(CO₃)₃O(OH)₂). Rietveld quantification indicated the surface soil contained 14.1% metallic Pb, 17.9% hydrocerussite, 5.2% plumbonacrite, 5.9% litharge, and 3.9% massicot on a dry weight basis, or a total of 39.7% Pb, far in excess of lead concentrations typically found in US shooting range soils. Metallic Cu (bullet jacket material) appeared stable as no secondary minerals were detected in the surface soil. As and Sb concentrations were on the order of 1,057 mg/kg and 845 mg/kg respectively. The elevated soil pH coupled with high organic carbon content is thought to have caused downward migration of metals, especially for Pb, since 4,153 mg Pb/kg was observed at a depth of 55 cm. More than 60% of Pb was concentrated in the coarse soil (> 0.425 mm) fraction, suggesting soil clean-up possible by physical soil washing may be viable. The concentrations of Pb, As, and Sb in the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) extracts were 8,869 mg/L, 6.72 mg/L, and 6.42 mg/L respectively, were above the USEPA non-hazardous regulatory limit (As and Pb) of 5 mg/L. The elevated Sb and As concentrations draw concern because there is historically limited information concerning these metals at firing ranges and several values exceeded local soil cleanup criteria. As the high Pb concentrations appeared to be linked to the presence of organic-rich berm cover materials, the use of wood chips as berm cover to prevent soil erosion requires reconsideration as a shooting range management practice.     

Modeling the emissions of a dual fuel engine coupled with a biomass gasifier—supplementing the Wiebe function

There is a growing market demand for small-scale biomass gasifiers that is driven by the economic incentives and the legislative framework. Small-scale gasifiers produce a gaseous fuel, commonly referred to as producer gas, with relatively low heating value. Thus, the most common energy conversion systems that are coupled with small-scale gasifiers are internal combustion engines. In order to increase the electrical efficiency, the operators choose dual fuel engines and mix the producer gas with diesel. The Wiebe function has been a valuable tool for assessing the efficiency of dual fuel internal combustion engines. This study introduces a thermodynamic model that works in parallel with the Wiebe function and calculates the emissions of the engines. This “vis-à-vis” approach takes into consideration the actual conditions inside the cylinders—as they are returned by the Wiebe function—and calculates the final thermodynamic equilibrium of the flue gases mixture. This approach aims to enhance the operation of the dual fuel internal combustion engines by identifying the optimal operating conditions and—at the same time—advance pollution control and minimize the environmental impact.     

Strength Development of Solidified/Stabilized Organic Waste and Optimum Treatment Design

Abstract

Artificially contaminated (spiked) natural soils were solidified/stabilized using various combinations of commonly used additives, such as lime, cement, fly ash, activated carbon, and silica fume. The effectiveness of the solidification/stabilization (S/S) processes was evaluated based on experimental findings from compaction testing, unconfined compressive shear strength, and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Correlations of limited reliability between unconfined compressive strength and penetrometer and torvane measurements were derived. Results from XRD experiments indicated that certain organic contaminants (i.e., naphthalene and pyrene) might impact the S/S processes for a given combination of additives. The type and amount of organic contaminants also affected the pozzolanic reactions. Specifically, the absence or small peak intensity of pozzolanic product XRD patterns for a given combination of additives was a good indication that the type and the amount of organic contaminant present inhibited pozzolanic reactions. This phenomenon was tested and confirmed for actual field-contaminated samples.     

Evaluating the Applicability of Regulatory Leaching Tests for Assessing Lead Leachability in Contaminated Shooting Range Soils

The toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) is the current US-EPA standard protocol to evaluate metal leachability in wastes and contaminated soils. However, application of TCLP to assess lead (Pb) leachability from contaminated shooting range soils may be questionable. This study determined Pb leachability in the range soils using TCLP and another US-EPA regulatory leaching method, synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP). Possible mechanisms that are responsible for Pb leaching in each leaching protocol were elucidated via X-ray diffraction (XRD). Soil samples were collected from the backstop berms at four shooting ranges, with Pb concentrations ranging from 5,000 to 60,600 mg kg⁻¹ soil. Lead concentrations in the TCLP leachates were from 3 to 350 mg l⁻¹, with all but one soil exceeding the USEPA non-hazardous waste disposal limit of 5 mg l⁻¹. However, continued dissolution of metallic Pb particles from spent Pb bullets and its re-precipitation as cerussite (PbCO₃) prevented the TCLP extraction from reaching equilibrium at the end of the standard leaching period (18 h). Thus, the standard one-point TCLP test would either over- or under-estimate Pb leachability in shooting range soils. Lead concentration in the SPLP leachates ranged from 0.021 to 2.6 mg l⁻¹, with all soils above the USEPA regulatory limit of 0.015 mg l⁻¹. In contrast to TCLP, SPLP leaching had reached equilibrium, with regard to both pH and Pb concentrations, within the standard 18 h leaching period, and the analytical SPLP results were in good agreement with those derived from modeling. Thus, we concluded that SPLP is a more appropriate alternative than TCLP for assessing lead leachability in range soils.