Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis—a case study

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance and environmental concerns in tropical deciduous forests of south India. In this study, we use fuzzy set theory integrated with decision-making algorithm in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to map forest fire risk. Fuzzy set theory implements classes or groupings of data with boundaries that are not sharply defined (i.e., fuzzy) and consists of a rule base, membership functions, and an inference procedure. We used satellite remote sensing datasets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate, and socioeconomic datasets to infer the causative factors of fires. Spatial-level data on these biophysical and socioeconomic parameters have been aggregated at the district level and have been organized in a GIS framework. A participatory multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to arrive at a decision matrix that identified the important causative factors of fires. These expert judgments were then integrated using spatial fuzzy decision-making algorithm to map the forest fire risk. Results from this study were quite useful in identifying potential “hotspots” of fire risk, where forest fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further, this study also demonstrates the potential of multicriteria analysis integrated with GIS as an effective tool in assessing “where and when” forest fires will most likely occur.     

Investigations of an intense aerosol loading during 2007 cyclone SIDR – A study using satellite data and ground measurements over Indian region

Tropical cyclones are prominent weather systems characterized by high atmospheric pressure gradients and wind speeds. Intense tropical cyclones occur in India during the pre-monsoon (spring), early monsoon (early summer), or post-monsoon (fall) periods. Originating in both the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS), these tropical cyclones often attain velocities of more than 100 km h^?1 and are notorious for causing intense rain and storm surge as they cross the Indian coast. In this study, we examine the changes in the aerosol properties associated with an intense tropical cyclone “SIDR”, that occurred during 11–16 November 2007 over BoB. This cyclone, accompanied with very strong surface winds reaching 223 km h^?1, caused extensive damage over Bangladesh. Ground-based measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in the neighboring urban environment of Hyderabad, India, showed significant variations due to changes in wind velocity and direction associated with the cyclone passage. The Terra-MODIS and AVHRR satellite images showed prevalence of dust particles mixed with emissions from anthropogenic sources and biomass-burning AS, while the aerosol loading over BoB was significantly lower. The positive values of Aerosol index (AI) obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) suggested the presence of an elevated aerosol layer over the West coast of India, AS and Thar Desert during and after the cyclone episode. Meteorological parameters from the MM5 mesoscale model were used to study the variations in winds associated with the cyclonic activity. Particulate matter loading over the region during the cyclone period increased by ～45% with an accompanying decrease in columnar aerosol optical depth. The variations in Angstrom parameters suggested coarse-mode particle loading due to dust aerosols as observed in satellite data.     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Characterization of aerosols from biomass burning--a case study from Mizoram (Northeast), India

Physical and optical properties of biomass burning aerosols in Northeastern region, India analyzed based on measurements made during February 2002. Large spatial extent of Northeastern Region moist tropical to moist sub-tropical forests in India have high frequency of burning in annual dry seasons. Characterization of resultant trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning is important for the atmospheric radiative process. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed to be high during burning period compared to pre- and post-burning days. Peak period of biomass burning is highly correlated with measured AOD and total columnar water vapor. Size distribution of aerosols showed bimodal size distribution during burning day and unimodal size distribution during pre- and post-burning days. Size distribution retrievals from biomass burning aerosols show dominance of accumulation mode particles. Weighted mean radius is high (0.22 microm) during burning period. Columnar content of aerosols observed to be high during burning period in addition to the drastic reduction of visibility. During the burning day Anderson sampler measurements showed dominance of accumulation mode particles. The diurnal averaged values of surface shortwave aerosol radiative forcing af biomass burning aerosols varies from -59 to -87 Wm(-2) on different days. Measured and modeled solar irradiances are also discussed in the paper.     

Factors influencing Aerosol Characteristics over Urban Environment

Atmospheric aerosols are an important contributing factor to turbidity in urban areas besides having impact on health. Aerosol characteristics show a high degree of variability in space and time as anthropogenic share of total aerosol loading is quite substantial and is essential to monitor the aerosol features over long time scales. In the present study extensive observations of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD), total columnar ozone (TCO) and precipitable water content (PWC) have been carried over a tropical urban city of Hyderabad, India. Significant variations of AOD have been observed during course of the day with low values of AOD during morning and evening hours and high values during afternoon hours. Spectral variation of AOD exhibits high AOD at smaller wavelengths and vice versa except a slight enhancement in AOD at 500 nm. Anomalies in AOD, particulate matter and black carbon concentrations have been observed during May, 2003. Back trajectory analysis of air mass during these episodes suggested variation in air mass trajectories. Analysis of the results suggests that air trajectories from land region north of study area cause high loading of atmospheric aerosols. The results are discussed in the paper.     

Characterization of aerosols and its radiative impacts over urban and rural environments--a case study from Hyderabad and Srisailam

In the troposphere anthropogenic aerosol emissions are increasing in recent decades, which can influence the earth's climate. The present study addresses the characterization of aerosols and their radiative impacts over urban (Hyderabad) and rural (Srisailam) environments by using aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer. AOD measurements over the urban site showed high values compared to the rural site. Over the urban environment aerosol forcing at the surface is as high as -42 W m(-2) and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is +10 W m(-2) whereas at the rural environment aerosol forcing at the surface has been observed to be -11 W m(-2) and at TOA it is observed to be +5.7 W m(-2). The difference between TOA and the surface forcing over the urban environment is +32 W m(-2) and over the rural environment is +5.3 W m(-2), which shows the absorption capacity of the respective atmospheres.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of fire events in India: implications for environmental conservation

Information on fires in different geographic regions of India is relatively scarce. This study quantifies spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrences covering different states and districts in India. Two important scientific questions are answered in this study: (1) how are the fire events distributed across different geographical regions? (2) are there any specific districts where fire events clustered across space and time? To address these questions, Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) derived satellite fire counts from 1997–2006 were used and the datasets were analysed using spatial scan statistic. Spatial scan statistic provides a test statistic for most likely ‘hotspot’ spatial clusters, based on the likelihood ratio test and Monte Carlo simulation. Results from geographical analysis based on state boundaries suggested Maharastra state had the highest number of fires followed by Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa, etc., during the 10-year period. Among the several districts, the spatial scan statistic identified the most likely cluster of fire events in Dausa, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur, Bharatpur and Alwar in addition to several other secondary clusters, with high statistical significance. These results are based on a large sample of cases, and they provide convincing evidence of spatial clustering of fire events in the Indian region. Results relating to hotspot areas of fire risk can guide policy makers towards the best management strategies for avoiding damages to forests, human life and personal property in the ‘hotspot’ districts.     

Trace Gas Emissions from Biomass Burning from Northeast Region in India—Estimates from Satellite Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Biomass burning associated with shifting cultivation areas from the northeastern region of India is an important source of trace gas emissions in the Southeast Asian region. In the present study, satellite data pertaining to IRS-P4 OCM data and DMSP-OLS has been used to quantify the intensity, areal extent and amount of biomass burnt in the northeastern region states at district level. Trace gas emissions have been quantified both by using IPCC based emission ratios and ground based emission ratios obtained from field based studies. Areal estimates with respect to shifting cultivation areas from IRS-P4 OCM satellite data of 4th April 2000 suggested nearly 112.99 km² of the northeastern region of India affected due to shifting cultivation. In the study, DMSP OLS nighttime data has been used to capture the real time fires during the dry season. The results suggested high amount of fires during the March season when compared to April and May. Using the emission ratios obtained from the ground-based studies and IPCC emission ratios, the emissions for the individual non-CO₂ trace gases have been computed in a GIS framework using the biomass data, combustion factors and emission ratios. Results suggested emissions of 2.063 Mt CH₄, 17.94 Mt CO, 1.419 Mt N₂O, and 51.28 Mt NO _x and 2.643 Mt release of CH₄, 3.7204 Mt CO, 0.145 Mt N₂O, and 8.477 Mt NO _x , respectively, from biomass burning due to shifting cultivation for the year 2000, from the northeastern region in India. The study highlights the importance of Satellite Remote sensing data and GIS in quantifying the trace gas emissions from biomass burning.     

Shortwave radiative forcing efficiency of urban aerosols--a case study using ground based measurements

Aerosols reduce the surface reaching solar flux by scattering the incoming solar radiation out to space. Various model studies on climate change suggest that surface cooling induced by aerosol scattering is the largest source of uncertainty in predicting the future climate. In the present study measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its direct radiative forcing efficiency has been presented over a typical tropical urban environment namely Hyderabad during December, 2003. Measurements of AOD have been carried out using MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer, black carbon aerosol mass concentration using Aethalometer, total aerosol mass concentration using channel Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) Impactor Particle analyser and direct normal solar irradiance using Multifilter Rotating Shadow Band Radiometer (MFRSR). Diurnal variation of AOD showed high values during afternoon hours. The fraction of BC estimated to be approximately 9% in the total aerosol mass concentration over the study area. Results of the study suggest -62.5 Wm(-2) reduction in the ground reaching shortwave flux for every 0.1 increase in aerosol optical depth. The results have been discussed in the paper.     

MODIS derived fire characteristics and aerosol optical depth variations during the agricultural residue burning season, north India

Agricultural residue burning is one of the major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols in the Indo-Ganges region. In this study, we characterize the fire intensity, seasonality, variability, fire radiative energy (FRE) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) variations during the agricultural residue burning season using MODIS data. Fire counts exhibited significant bi-modal activity, with peak occurrences during April-May and October-November corresponding to wheat and rice residue burning episodes. The FRE variations coincided with the amount of residues burnt. The mean AOD (2003-2008) was 0.60 with 0.87 (+1σ) and 0.32 (−1σ). The increased AOD during the winter coincided well with the fire counts during rice residue burning season. In contrast, the AOD-fire signal was weak during the summer wheat residue burning and attributed to dust and fossil fuel combustion. Our results highlight the need for ‘full accounting of GHG’s and aerosols’, for addressing the air quality in the study area.