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11.
John C. Whitehead Ben Poulter Christopher F. Dumas Okmyung Bin 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(8):777-792
In this paper we develop estimates of the economic effects of sea level rise on marine recreational shore fishing in North Carolina, USA. The relationship between angler behavior and spatial differences in beach width is estimated using the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey and geospatial data. We exploit the empirical relationship between beach width and fishing site choice by simulating the effects of sea level rise on angler site choice. We find that reductions in beach width negatively affect the quality and number of fishing trips even as anglers adapt by using piers and bridges. Welfare losses are potentially substantial, ranging up 39% of the total value of marine shore fishing in North Carolina. 相似文献
12.
Mélanie Brun Christophe Abraham Marc Jarry Jacques Dumas Frédéric Lange Etienne Prévost 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(5):1069-1079
Abundance indicators are required both to assess and to manage wild populations. As new techniques are developed and teams in charge of gathering the data change, data collection procedures (DCPs) can evolve in space and time. How to estimate an homogeneous series of abundance indicator despite changes in DCP? To tackle this question a hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM) approach is proposed. It integrates multiple DCPs in order to derive a single abundance indicator that can be compared over space and time irrespective of the DCP used. Compared to single DCP models, it takes further advantage for abundance estimation of the joint treatment of a larger set of spatio-temporal units. After presenting the general formulation of our HBM approach, it is applied to the juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) population of the River Nivelle (France). Posterior model checking, using χ2 discrepancy measure, do not reveal any inadequacy between the model and the data. Despite a change in the DCP used (successive removals to catch-per-unit of effort), a unique abundance indicator for the 425 spatio-temporal units (site × year) sampled over twenty-four years (1985-2008) is estimated. The HBM approach allows the assessment of precision of the abundance estimates and shows variation between DCPs: a reduction in precision is observed during the most recent years (2005-2008) when only the catch-per-unit of effort DCP was used. The merits and generality of our HBM approach are discussed. We contend it extends previous single DCP models or inter-calibration of two DCPs, and it could be applied to a wide range of specific situations (taxon and DCPs). 相似文献
13.
Harvests of crops, their trade and consumption, soil erosion, fertilization and recycling of organic waste generate fluxes of phosphorus in and out of the soil that continuously change the worldwide spatial distribution of total phosphorus in arable soils. Furthermore, due to variability in the properties of the virgin soils and the different histories of agricultural practices, on a planetary scale, the distribution of total soil phosphorus is very heterogeneous. There are two key relationships that determine how this distribution and its change over time affect crop yields. One is the relationship between total soil phosphorus and bioavailable soil phosphorus and the second is the relationship between bioavailable soil phosphorus and yields. Both of these depend on environmental variables such as soil properties and climate. We propose a model in which these relationships are described probabilistically and integrated with the dynamic feedbacks of P cycling in the human ecosystem. The model we propose is a first step towards evaluating the large-scale effects of different nutrient management scenarios. One application of particular interest is to evaluate the vulnerability of different regions to an increased scarcity in P mineral fertilizers. Another is to evaluate different regions’ deficiency in total soil phosphorus compared with the level at which they could sustain their maximum potential yield without external mineral inputs of phosphorus but solely by recycling organic matter to close the nutrient cycle. 相似文献
14.
Tsuji LJ Martin ID Martin ES LeBlanc A Dumas P 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2008,146(1-3):91-104
We examined matched-tissue samples (the right pectoral muscle plus the associated skin and fat was considered a breast portion) of 81 spring-harvested waterfowl and 19 summer-harvested godwits (Limosa spp.) to assess the potential of these water birds contributing to the body burden of PCBs and DDT noted in First Nation people of the western James Bay region, northern Ontario, Canada. In general, the dabbling ducks (mallard duck, Anas platyrhynchos; and northern pintail, A. acuta) had significantly lower percent lipid (gravimetrically determined) values in skin tissue, fat tissue, and breast muscle compared to the goose species (Canada goose, Branta canadensis; lesser snow goose, Chen caerulescens); godwits had percent lipid values not significantly different than ducks and geese. Also, the percent lipid values in skin for all species of birds examined approached those found in fat tissue. Organochlorine data were expressed as the amount (microg) of each contaminant per breast portion to show contaminant consumption in terms of typical and easily recognizable dietary portions; direct comparisons were made to acceptable daily intake (ADI) or tolerable daily intake (TDI) values as recommended by Health Canada. Significant differences in the amount of organochlorines between bird species for skin, fat tissue, and breast muscle samples were found. In general, breast portions from snow geese contained the least amount of organochlorines, followed by godwits (except for mirex) and then Canada geese; the dabbling ducks had the greatest amount of organochlorines on a breast portion basis. However, on average, no 60 kg person would exceed the calculated organochlorine ADI/TDI values consuming one breast portion (i.e., breast + associated skin and fat), but the maximum value of SigmaPCBs for skin tissue alone in male mallards (47 microg) was more than twice the ADI/TDI (18 microg/day); while, that in fat tissue alone (17 microg) approached the ADI/TDI. Thus, the consumption of dabbling ducks by children is an issue that should be explored further, if tissue other than breast muscle is eaten. Lastly, the consumption of waterfowl was a source of PCBs for people of Fort Albany and Kashechewan, but not DDT, as this organochlorine was infrequently detected. 相似文献