THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

Housing in the new cities of Egypt

The New Cities of Egypt represent a major effort to redistribute investment and population away from Cairo and the Delta in a brave attempt to use desert land. Through a study of three cities under construction, the reliance on government‐built walk‐up flats for housing provision is discussed and its relevance for later phases questioned. In conclusion, the efficacy of the New Cities as counter‐attractions is doubted in the absence of effective controls on the growth of Cairo.     

Work schedule flexibility and family life

This paper explores the implications of work schedule flexibility for family life. Based on data from the 1977 Quality of Employment Survey, it demonstrates that flexibility of work schedules moderates the effects of nonstandard work schedules on family life. That is, nonstandard work schedules tend to have a less negative association with the quality of family life when accompanied by a high level of schedule flexibility. The paper further demonstrates that this tendency of flexibility to act as a buffer against the negative effects of nonstandard work schedules on family life is more pronounced among working women than working men.     

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD INDUCED CHANGES IN URBAN LAND VALUES1

ABSTRACT: By integrating literature from flood hazard research and urban economics a theoretical structure is developed to explain changes in residential land values following flood events. The negative aspects of the flood hazard are shown to be capitalized in the value of the property. It is further suggested that land values (i.e., capitalization) will vary both spatially across the floodplain and temporally depending on the frequency, severity and spatial characteristics of the flood event. Previous work in this area has not addressed the capitalization process explicitly and has not specifically examined the ability of the land market to recover. This may account for the contradictory findings in the published literature.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Household size and composition and implications for housing need in Kumasi,Ghana: a research note

A simple method of calculating the scale of housing need for Kumasi, Ghana, uses two likely variations in household size distribution and an overcrowding threshold of 3 p.p.r., and a measure of preference. The two household size distributions take account both of trends and of changes which may occur if and when new housing is provided. At that time, released from the current constraints, household formation along traditional lines may again be possible. The preferred supply equates households’ perceived need to their ability to pay at current rents. The resulting range of rooms required is wide but even the lowest need is so far in excess of supply that conventional approaches are self‐evidently inadequate and greater client involvement must be encouraged.     

A risk model for predicting the effects of lake-side development on wildfowl populations

The lack of quantitative analysis and general scientific rigour in environmental impact assessment (EIA) is well documented. While reasons for this may include political and economic factors, the lack of high-level statistical knowledge and skills in environmental consultancies probably contributes to the problem, particularly with regard to ecological studies. This paper develops a simple model for wintering wildfowl populations that predicts different levels of risk from lake-side development. The aim was to create a model that could be used easily and quickly by consultants, is readily understandable for developers and various groups associated with the planning process, with explicit assumptions that can be criticised, and predictions that can be tested with post-development audits. The model is used in a case study. The basic parameters of the model are (i) average wildfowl abundance on lakes before development, (ii) maximum potential density of wildfowl across lakes (Kmax) before development, and (iii) reduction in lake area suitable for wildfowl after development. The model includes abundance-area relationships that are useful for highlighting the importance of particular lakes at a site. In the case study, abundance-area relationships focused attention on two lakes with thick charophyte beds which supported higher than expected numbers of pochard and coot given their size. As well as being robust (confidence limits are calculated), the model's predictions are quantitative and testable, making it possible to compare the predictions with on-going post-development monitoring of wildfowl population levels. The predictions rely on the effectiveness of path screening, and post-development monitoring can suggest where screening should be strengthened if the model's predictions are not met. Similarly, if other assumptions in the model are not met by the development, appropriate action can be implemented.     

Survey of land degradation in New South Wales,Australia

A survey of land degradation was undertaken in New South Wales, Australia during 1987–1988. The aims of the survey were to assess the location, extent, and severity of ten forms of degradation and to present the data in map and statistical form. Sample points were located on a regular grid. The method was designed so that data could be acquired from aerial photographs, expert local knowledge, and limited field checking. Individual statewide maps were prepared for each form of degradation. Map data were shown in pixel form. Sheet and rill erosion and soil structure decline were confined mostly to lands used for cropping. Gully erosion was commonly found across the state, while mass movement was confined to steeper lands. There were three severe areas of dryland salinity; irrigation salinity was mapped in parts of the southern irrigation lands. Induced soil acidity was severe in some cropping and pasture lands. Absence of tree regrowth was a noticeable feature of lands used for cropping. The survey enabled community awareness of the problems of land degradation to be increased, in addition to assisting regional land managers in resource allocation. The survey also provided the basis for the future location of sites that could be used to monitor the trends in the status of land degradation.     

Derelict land: the case for a strategic approach

This paper examines the rationale underlying the ‘strategic approach’ to the prevention and reclamation of derelict land proposed in research recently published by the Department of the Environment. It outlines the main features and the processes involved in this approach and indicates the form and content of the documentation which might accompany its adoption. The paper focuses upon the tasks involved in the preparation of strategies for derelict land but the principles it examines will have wider application in other policy fields. It concludes with an examination of the practical problems which the adoption of a strategic approach may entail and the ways in which it would enhance the activities of the recently announced Urban Regeneration Agency for England.