SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.     

Risk on the ramble: The international transfer of risk and vulnerability

In this paper the purpose is to discuss a concept of technology that can explain how the transfer of technology implies the risk of new failures, misuse, accidents and unhealthy workplaces. Production technologies are often transformed through a steady stream of incremental changes appropriate to their social context, and the technology will therefore gradually acquire some contextually dependent preconditions for use. These preconditions will most probably be revealed when a technology is transferred from one context to another. Thus, a technology transfer project may trigger a long process of re-innovations just to make the technology fully operational in its new context. In a transfer process, technological risks may arise due to incomplete transfer of mastering capacity; mismatch between transferred technology and the environment; transfer of latent conditions for failure; and the transformation of latent conditions or known risks when the technology is installed in a new environment. Longitudinal data from the Norwegian petroleum industry indicates that the first phases in a transfer process will create high technological risks. It will take many years before the transferred technologies are adapted to the new context and the risk level has been normalised.     

Evaluation and ranking of restoration strategies for radioactively contaminated sites.

An international project, whose aim was the development of a transparent and robust method for evaluating and ranking restoration strategies for radioactively contaminated sites (RESTRAT), was carried out under the Fourth Framework of the Nuclear Fission Safety Programme of the EU. The evaluation and ranking procedure used was based on the principles of justification and optimisation for radiation protection. A multi-attribute utility analysis was applied to allow for the inclusion of radiological health effects, economic costs and social factors. Values of these attributes were converted into utility values by applying linear utility functions and weighting factors, derived from scaling constants and expert judgement. The uncertainties and variabilities associated with these utility functions and weighting factors were dealt with by a probabilistic approach which utilised a Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. Potentially relevant restoration techniques were identified and their characteristics determined through a literature review. The methodology developed by this project has been illustrated by application to representative examples of different categories of contaminated sites; a waste disposal site, a uranium tailing site and a contaminated freshwater river.     

Vertical migration of radionuclides in undisturbed grassland soils

Literature data on numerical values obtained for the parameters of the two most popular models for simulating the migration of radionuclides in undisturbed soils have been compiled and evaluated statistically. Due to restrictions on the applicability of compartmental models, the convection–dispersion equation and its parameter values should be preferred. For radiocaesium, recommended values are derived for its effective convection velocity and dispersion coefficient. Data deficiencies still exist for radionuclides other than caesium and for soils of non-temperate environments.     

Modelling plant species richness using functional groups

Conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial predictive models of biodiversity to support decision-making. Therefore, highly accurate and ecologically meaningful models are required at relatively broad spatial scales. While statistical techniques have been optimized to improve model accuracy, less focus has been given to the question: How does the autecology of a single species affect model quality? We compare a direct modelling approach versus a cumulative modelling approach for predicting plant species richness, where the latter gives more weight to the ecology of functional species groups. In the direct modelling approach, species richness is predicted by a single model calibrated for all species. In the cumulative modelling approach, the species were partitioned into functional groups, with each group calibrated separately and species richness of each group was cumulated to predict total species richness. We hypothesized that model accuracy depends on the ecology of individual species and that the cumulative modelling approach would predict species richness more accurately. The predictors explained plant species richness by ca. 25%. However, depending on the functional group the deviance explained varied from 3 to 67%. While both modelling approaches performed equally well, the models of the different functional groups highly varied in their quality and their spatial richness pattern. This variability helps to improve our understanding on how plant functional groups respond to ecological gradients.     

Aldehyde and Monocyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Mixing Ratios at an Urban Site in Las Vegas,Nevada

ABSTRACT

Linhong Jing completed a master's degree in chemistry at UNLV and is currently enrolled in the Ph.D. program at Purdue University. Her address is Department of Chemistry, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907. Dr. Spencer Steinberg is an associate professor of chemistry at UNLV. His address is UNLV Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 454003, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4003. Dr. Brian Johnson is an associate professor of chemistry at UNLV. His address is UNLV Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 454003, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4003.

Oxidation of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) in air, of significance due to, for example, the potential for O₃ formation, is believed to be initiated by OH attack on the ring (addition) or on the alkyl side chain (H abstraction). A series of ring-breaking reactions follows, with major products predicted to be a-dicarbonyls, simple aldehydes, and organic acids. To test this prediction, ambient air mixing ratios of aldehydes (formaldehyde, ac-etaldehyde, benzaldehyde, glyoxal, and pyruvaldehyde), along with some supporting BTEX data, were measured at an urban site in Las Vegas, NV. Samples were collected on sorbents and determined by chromatographic methods; mixing ratios were compared to ambient levels of CO, O₃, and NO_x. A meteorological analysis (temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) was also included. Statistically significant relationships were noted among the BTEX hydrocarbons (HCs) and among the photochemi-cally derived species (e.g., O₃, NO₂, and some of the aldehydes), although there was seasonal variation. The observations are consistent with a common primary source (i.e., vehicular exhaust or fuel evaporation) for the BTEX compounds and a common secondary source (e.g., OH attack) for glyoxal and pyruvaldehyde.     

δ 13C and δ 15N variations in organic matter pools, Mytilus spp. and Macoma balthica along the European Atlantic coast

Stable carbon (δ ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ ¹⁵N) isotope (SI) values of sedimentary organic matter (SOM), seston and two dominant bivalves, Mytilus spp. and Macoma balthica, were studied at 18 stations along the European coast in spring and autumn 2004. Three main regions, the Baltic Sea (BS), the North Sea and English Channel (NS), and the Bay of Biscay (BB), were tested for possible geographic (latitudinal) differences in the SI values. In spring, only BS showed lower δ ¹³C values of seston and Mytilus spp., and higher δ ¹⁵N values of SOM, than NS and BB. No significant differences between the 3 regions were found in autumn. Irrespective of season and regions, Mytilus spp. was more ¹³C-depleted than M. balthica. δ ¹³C values of M. balthica, but not those of Mytilus spp., were significantly correlated with SOM. These results are consistent with differences in feeding behavior of Mytilus spp. and M. balthica, as the two species are known as obligatory-suspension and facultative-deposit feeders, respectively. In contrast, no differences in the δ ¹⁵N values of Mytilus spp. and M. balthica were found at individual stations, indicating the same trophic level of the two bivalves within the food webs. At some stations, irrespective of geographic location, both bivalves showed δ ¹⁵N values up to 18–20 ‰. These were two trophic levels higher than those found at the other stations, indicating local and/or episodic eutrophic conditions, probably due to waste water discharge, and the effectiveness of both Mytilus spp. and M. balthica as bio-indicators of anthropogenic eutrophication. Overall, our results suggest that pathways of energy flow from OM pools to dominant bivalves is more related to local environmental conditions than to geographic regions across the European coastline. This has implications for food web studies along the Atlantic coast because most of the values are consistent over a large area and show no significant differences. Therefore, the present study can be used twofold for the determination of trophic baselines and for the correction of the trophic position of consumers higher up in the food web in the case of differences in waste water discharge.     

Summary of the Federal Emissions Trading Policy Statement

This paper is directed to those concerned with using emissions trading to achieve greater flexibility and reduce the costs of complying with air pollution emission standards.     

Ants as a Measure of Effectiveness of Habitat Conservation Planning in Southern California

Abstract: In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed.