What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

Lifting a veil on diversity: a Bayesian approach to fitting relative-abundance models.

Bayesian methods incorporate prior knowledge into a statistical analysis. This prior knowledge is usually restricted to assumptions regarding the form of probability distributions of the parameters of interest, leaving their values to be determined mainly through the data. Here we show how a Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of drawing inference regarding species abundance distributions and comparing diversity indices between sites. The classic log series and the lognormal models of relative- abundance distribution are apparently quite different in form. The first is a sampling distribution while the other is a model of abundance of the underlying population. Bayesian methods help unite these two models in a common framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation can be used to fit both distributions as small hierarchical models with shared common assumptions. Sampling error can be assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Species not found in a sample, but suspected to be present in the region or community of interest, can be given zero abundance. This not only simplifies the process of model fitting, but also provides a convenient way of calculating confidence intervals for diversity indices. The method is especially useful when a comparison of species diversity between sites with different sample sizes is the key motivation behind the research. We illustrate the potential of the approach using data on fruit-feeding butterflies in southern Mexico. We conclude that, once all assumptions have been made transparent, a single data set may provide support for the belief that diversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic forest disturbance. Bayesian methods help to apply theory regarding the distribution of abundance in ecological communities to applied conservation.     

Influence of diesel fuel on seed germination

The use of plant-based systems to remediate contaminated soils has become an area of intense scientific study in recent years and it is apparent that plants which grow well in contaminated soils need to be identified and screened for use in phytoremediation technologies. This study investigated the effect of diesel fuel on germination of selected plant species. Germination response varied greatly with plant species and was species specific, as members of the same plant family showed differential sensitivity to diesel fuel contamination. Differences were also seen within plant subspecies. At relatively low levels of diesel fuel contamination, delayed seed emergence and reduced percentage germination was observed for the majority of plant species investigated. Results suggest the volatile fraction of diesel fuel played an influential role in delaying seed emergence and reducing percentage germination. In addition, the remaining diesel fuel in the soil added to this inhibitory effect on germination by physically impeding water and oxygen transfer between the seed and the surrounding soil environment, thus hindering the germination response.     

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002–2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

ABSTRACT

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10– 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5– 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC – Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160–800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70–1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3–$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million–$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90–2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180–580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0–1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960–1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: ?280,350–963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.

Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.     

Ammonia removal from facultative pond effluents in a constructed wetland and an aerated rock filter: performance comparison in winter and summer.

The effluent from a facultative pond loaded at 80 kg BOD ha(-1) day(-1) was treated in a subsurface horizontal-flow aerated rock filter (RF) and a subsurface horizontal-flow constructed wetland (CW) planted with Typha latifolia. Over a 12-month monitoring period BOD and TSS removals were higher, and effluent ammonia concentrations lower, in the RF than in the CW (> 75% vs. 25-75%, and 3.6 mg N L(-1) vs. 6 mg N L(-1), respectively). However, the ammonia concentration was lower in the CW effluent than in the aerated RF effluent during mid-July to mid-September (1.1 mg N L(-1) vs. 2.2 mg N L(-1)), but in winter it was higher than the influent concentration. Overall the performance of the aerated RF was better and more consistent than that of the CW.     

Birth sex ratios in sheep over six lambing seasons

Summary The birth sex ratio of a commercial flock of Suffolk × sheep, Ovis aries, were studied over six consecutive lambing seasons. In all, data from 1820 lambs were recorded and analysed. The overall birth sex ratio was 49.56% male lambs. Significantly more males (56.23%) were born to ewes with single lambs than to ewes with like-sex twins (47.73%). Significantly more female lambs were born to ewes with triplet births (41.79% male). A significant difference in the birth sex ratio was observed between the first and second half of the lambing season, among like-sex pairs of twin lambs. More males were born in the first half (51.43%) and significantly more females (43.59% male) in the second half of the lambing season. The results are discussed with reference to the theory of Trivers and Willard (1973).     

The effect of diesel fuel on common vetch (Vicia sativa L.) plants

When petroleum hydrocarbons contaminate soil, the carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratio of the soil is altered. The added carbon stimulates microbial numbers but causes an imbalance in the C:N ratio which may result in immobilization of soil nitrogen by the microbial biomass, leaving none available for plant growth. As members of Leguminosae fix atmospheric nitrogen to produce their own nitrogen for growth, they may prove more successful at growing on petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. During a wider study on phytoremediation of diesel fuel contaminated soil, particular attention was given to the performance of legumes versus other plant species. During harvesting of pot experiments containing leguminous plants, a recurring difference in the number and formation of root nodules present on control and contaminated Common vetch (Vicia sativa L.) plants was observed. The total number of nodules per plant was significantly reduced in contaminated plants compared to control plants but nodules on contaminated plants were more developed than corresponding nodules on control plants. Plant performance of Common vetch and Westerwold's ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) was compared to illustrate any difference between the ability of legumes and grasses to grow on diesel fuel contaminated soil. Common vetch was less affected by diesel fuel and performed better in low levels of diesel fuel contaminated soil than Westerwolds ryegrass. The total amount of diesel fuel remaining after 4 months in Common vetch planted soil was slightly less than in Westerwolds ryegrass planted soil.