用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

二氧化硫排放总量控制若干问题的思考

根据国家《“十一五”规划纲要》对削减二氧化硫排放总量的要求，在对电力行业脱硫现状及前景的具体阐述中指出实现这个目标的可能性，并从多方面对二氧化硫总量控制的关键问题进行了详尽的论述与分析。     

浅析美国绿色住宅建筑节水技术

按照LEED-NC标准，绿色建筑中的节水设计应该采取多种技术措施：在住宅内，采用节水型器具和无水型器具，如堆肥式厕所和无水小便器，改变生活用水习惯提高用水效率，考虑雨水或者中水进行冲厕和小便器，或者采用创新的废水利用技术等；在住宅外，使用耐旱的景观设计，采用高效灌溉方式，改变灌溉习惯提高用水效率等。     

贵州珍稀濒危药用植物与可持续开发利用

通过调查贵州珍稀濒危药用植物的种类、分布、现状及用途，为该省珍稀濒危药用植物的合理开发利用提供依据。采用实地调查、资料查阅、市场调研，然后作出评估与评价。结果表明，贵州珍稀濒危药用植物种类较多，具有良好的开发应用前景。贵州珍稀濒危药用植物的开发利用应走深度开发、可持续利用模式。     

西江年最高水位的神经网络预报模型

对西江洪水发生的特征进行分析表明，洪水发生频率高，具有明显阶段性特征，并与流域面雨量密切相关。利用前期环流场、海表温度（SST）场及环流特征量资料选择初选预报因子，然后对初选预报因子作EOF分解构造综合预报因子，结合人工神经网络方法建立了西江年最高水位预报模型，并对预报模型进行独立样本试验。结果表明，该预报模型对历史样本拟合精度高，试报效果明显好于传统的逐步回归模型，可在汛期预测业务中应用。     

关于大型社会经营活动安全问题的探讨

笔者列举了相关事例,指出了大型社会经营活动的主要特点;从制度、操作、技术研究、教育4方面分析了目前大型社会经营活动存在的现实突出问题;重点从公共场所安全、应急、疏散、人群、活动容量、旅游安全、安全管理、工作实践这几个方面综述了大型社会经营活动安全相关研究的进展并指出不足之处;在上述研讨的基础上结合风险评价理论等,提出了一个较为完善的保障大型社会经营活动安全的构想,并详细论述其内容、方法及技术路线。该构想对开展大型社会经营活动的事故预防、风险管理、应急处理和控制具有重要参考价值。     

液化气运输过程中的危险分析

应用各种爆炸后果估计模型对液化气运输过程中的爆炸后果进行了评估，并用ETA分析方法对存在的危险进行了分析，指出了控制措施。     

Enzyme-Retted Flax Fiber and Recycled Polyethylene Composites

Municipal solid wastes generated each year contain potentially useful and recyclable materials for composites. Simultaneously, interest is high for the use of natural fibers, such as flax (Linum usitatissimum L.), in composites thus providing cost and environmental benefits. To investigate the utility of these materials, composites containing flax fibers with recycled high density polyethylene (HDPE) were created and compared with similar products made with wood pulp, glass, and carbon fibers. Flax was either enzyme- or dew-retted to observe composite property differences between diverse levels of enzyme formulations and retting techniques. Coupling agents would strengthen binding between fibers and HDPE but in this study fibers were not modified in anyway to observe mechanical property differences between natural fiber composites. Composites with flax fibers from various retting methods, i.e., dew- vs. enzyme-retting, behaved differently; dew-retted fiber composites resulted in both lower strength and percent elongation. The lowest level of enzyme-retting and the most economical process produces composites that do not appear to differ from the highest level of enzyme-retting. Flax fibers improved the modulus of elasticity over wood pulp and HDPE alone and were less dense than glass or carbon fiber composites. Likely, differences in surface properties of the various flax fibers, while poorly defined and requiring further research, caused various interactions with the resin that influenced composite properties.     

基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评价在高层建筑火灾危险评价中的应用

针对高层建筑火灾危险的特点,建立了高层建筑火灾危险评价的指标体系,并应用层次分析法确定了其权重。根据高层建筑火灾危险评价系统具有多因素、多层次的特点,采用模糊综合评价方法;针对模糊综合评价的不足之处,提出把权广义距离之和最小模糊模式识别运用到模糊综合评价当中,建立了基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评价模型;该评价模型避免了单因素矩阵的确定和模糊算子的选择问题,用安全状态特征值来表征最终的评价结果,能使评价结果更加准确,可操作性强。通过对陕西某高层建筑火灾危险评价实例证明,该模型具有较好的应用价值,为日常的安全管理和性能化防火设计提供了有用依据。