Model selection and evaluation for risk assessment of dioxin-contaminated sites

The general European population has a total intake of dioxins and dioxin-like chemicals near the limit recommended by the European Union, making additional exposure above background levels undesirable. For populations living near dioxin-contaminated sites, additional exposure may occur by intake of locally produced food, inhalation of particles, dermal contact with soils, or other exposure pathways. Risk assessment tools are required to estimate risks associated with contaminated sites and to set priorities for site remediation. Here, we review several multimedia models that can be applied as tools to support risk assessment. We then present a strategy to select, apply, evaluate, and adapt a model to address a specific situation. The case study we consider is a risk assessment of generic background dioxin exposure in Sweden, and we compare the predictions with environmental observations and exposure data from Sweden. Arguments are presented for selecting the CalTOX model for this case study. We demonstrate the application, evaluation, and adaptation of the model and discuss the requirements for extending the analysis to conduct risk assessment for subpopulations living near dioxin-contaminated sites.     

Porosity investigation of compacted bentonite using XRD profile modeling

Many countries intend to use compacted bentonite as a barrier in their deep geological repositories for nuclear waste. In order to describe and predict hydraulic conductivity or radionuclide transport through the bentonite barrier, fundamental understanding of the microstructure of compacted bentonite is needed. This study examined the interlayer swelling and overall microstructure of Wyoming Bentonite MX-80 and the corresponding homo-ionic Na(+) and Ca(2+) forms, using XRD with samples saturated under confined swelling conditions and free swelling conditions. For the samples saturated under confined conditions, the interparticle, or so-called free or external porosity was estimated by comparing the experimental interlayer distances obtained from one-dimensional XRD profile fitting against the maximum interlayer distances possible for the corresponding water content. The results showed that interlayer porosity dominated total porosity, irrespective of water content, and that the interparticle porosity was lower than previously reported in the literature. At compactions relevant for the saturated bentonite barrier (1.4-1.8 g/cm(3)), the interparticle porosity was estimated to ≤3%.     

Barium as a potential indicator of phosphorus in agricultural runoff

In many catchments, anthropogenic input of contaminants, and in particular phosphorus (P), into surface water is a mixture of agricultural and sewage runoff. Knowledge about the relative contribution from each of these sources is vital for mitigation of major environmental problems such as eutrophication. In this study, we investigated whether the distribution of trace elements in surface waters can be used to trace the contamination source. Water from three groups of streams was investigated: streams influenced only by agricultural runoff, streams influenced mainly by sewage runoff, and reference streams. Samples were collected at different flow regimes and times of year and analyzed for 62 elements using ICP-MS. Our results show that there are significant differences between the anthropogenic sources affecting the streams in terms of total element composition and individual elements, indicating that the method has the potential to trace anthropogenic impact on surface waters. The elements that show significant differences between sources are strontium (p < 0.001), calcium (p < 0.004), potassium (p < 0.001), magnesium (p < 0.001), boron (p < 0.001), rhodium (p = 0.001), and barium (p < 0.001). According to this study, barium shows the greatest potential as a tracer for an individual source of anthropogenic input to surface waters. We observed a strong relationship between barium and total P in the investigated samples (R(2) = 0.78), which could potentially be used to apportion anthropogenic sources of P and thereby facilitate targeting of mitigation practices.     

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.     

Simulating transport of 129I and idealized tracers in the northern North Atlantic Ocean

Transport of the radioactive tracer Iodine-129 (¹²⁹I, T _1/2 = 15.7 Myr) in the northern North Atlantic Ocean has been investigated using a global isopycnic Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) and observed data. ¹²⁹I originates mainly from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in Sellafield (UK) and La Hague (France), and is transported northwards along the Norwegian coast, and then into surface and intermediate layers in the Arctic Ocean through the Barents Sea and the Fram Strait, but also partly recirculating south along the eastern coast of Greenland. In the North Atlantic Subpolar Seas, ¹²⁹I is mainly found in dense overflow waters from the Nordic Seas being exported southwards in the Deep Western Boundary Current, and to a lesser extent in surface and intermediate layers circulating cyclonically within the Subpolar Gyre. Observed concentration of ¹²⁹I along a surface transect in the eastern Nordic Seas in 2001 is captured by the OGCM, while in the Nansen Basin of the Arctic Ocean the OGCM overestimates the observed values by a factor of two. The vertical profile of ¹²⁹I in the Labrador Sea, repeatedly observed since 1997 to present, is fairly realistically reproduced by the OGCM. This indicates that the applied model system has potential for predicting the magnitude and depth of overflow waters from the Nordic Seas into the North Atlantic Subpolar Seas. To supplement the information obtained from the ¹²⁹I distribution, we have conducted a number of idealized tracer experiments with the OGCM, including tracers mimicking pure water masses, and instantaneous pulse releases. New insight into time-scales of tracer transport in this region is obtained by utilizing a few recently developed methods based on the theory of Transit Time Distribution (TTD) and age of tracers. Implications for other types of “anomalies” in the northern North Atlantic Ocean, being anomalous hydrography or chemical tracers, and how they are interpreted, are discussed.     

Microsatellite analysis of albacore tuna (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus alalunga</Emphasis>): population genetic structure in the North-East Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea

Stock heterogeneity was investigated in albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788), a commercially important species in the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Twelve polymorphic microsatellite loci were examined in 581 albacore tuna from nine locations, four in the north-east Atlantic Ocean (NEA), three in the Mediterranean Sea (MED) and two in the south-western Pacific Ocean (SWP). Maximum numbers of alleles per locus ranged from 9 to 38 (sample mean, 5.2–22.6 per locus; overall mean, 14.2 ± 0.47 SE), and observed heterozygosities per locus ranged from 0.44 to 1.00 (overall mean: 0.79 ± 0.19 SE). Significant deficits of heterozygotes were observed in 20% of tests. Multilocus F _ST values were observed ranging from 0.00 to Θ = 0.036 and Θ′ = 0.253, with a mean of Θ = 0.013 and Θ′ = 0.079. Pairwise F _ST values showed that the SWP, NEA and MED stocks were significantly distinct from one another, thus corroborating findings in previous studies based on mitochondrial DNA, nuclear DNA (other than microsatellites) and allozyme analyses. Heterogeneity was observed for the first time between samples within the Mediterranean Sea. GENELAND indicated the potential presence of three populations across the NEA and two separate populations in the Mediterranean Sea. Observed genetic structure may be related to migration patterns and timing of movements of subpopulations to the feeding grounds in either summer or autumn. We suggest that a more intensive survey be conducted throughout the entire fishing season to ratify or refute the currently accepted genetic homogeneity within the NEA albacore stock.     

Parameters influencing AIS 1 neck injury outcome in frontal impacts

In order to gain more knowledge of the neck injury scenario in frontal impacts, a statistical study of parameters influencing incidences of AIS 1 neck injuries was performed. The data set consisted of 616 occupants in Volvo cars. Information regarding the crash, the safety systems, occupant characteristics (including prior neck problems), behavior and sitting posture at the time of impact, and neck symptoms (including duration) was collected and analyzed. Occupant characteristics (mainly gender, weight, and age), kinematics (head impacts) and behavior at the time of impact were identified as the most prominent parameter areas with regard to AIS 1 neck injury outcome. Specifically, women had a significantly higher AIS 1 neck injury rate as compared to men, occupants under the age of 50 had a significantly higher AIS 1 neck injury rate as compared to those above 50 and occupants weighing less than 65 kg have a significantly higher AIS 1 neck injury rate than heavier occupants. Drivers stating that they impacted their head against a frontal interior structure had a significantly higher AIS 1 neck injury rate than those without head impact. Also, occupants who stated they had tensed their neck muscles at the time of impact, had a significantly higher AIS 1 neck injury rate as compared to occupants who did not. Occupant activities, such as tightly gripping the steering wheel or straightening their arms showed a significantly increased AIS 1 neck injury rate, indicating that occupant behavior at time of impact could be influential with respect to AIS 1 neck injury outcome. Also, occupants reporting prior neck problems had a higher rate of persistent symptoms (>1 year) but no difference with respect to passing symptoms (<3 months) as compared to those without prior neck problems. Additionally, there was no distinct pattern for the duration of neck symptoms.     

Historical Weathering Based on Chemical Analyses of Two Spodosols in Southern Sweden

Chemical weathering losses were calculated for two conifer stands in relation to ongoing studies on liming effects and ash amendments on chemical status, soil solution chemistry and soil genesis. Weathering losses were based on elemental depletion trends in soil profiles since deglaciation and exposure to the weathering environment. Gradients in total geochemical composition were assumed to reflect alteration over time. Study sites were Horröd and Hasslöv in southern Sweden. Both Horröd and Hasslöv sites are located on sandy loamy Weichselian till at an altitude of 85 and 190 m a.s.l., respectively. Aliquots from volume determined samples from a number of soil levels were fused with lithium metaborate, dissolved in HNO₃, and analysed by ICP – AES. Results indicated highest cumulative weathering losses at Hasslöv. The weathering losses for the elements are in the following order:Si > Al > K > Na > Ca > MgTotal annual losses for Ca+Mg+K+Na, expressed in mmol_c m^-2 yr^-1, amounted to c. 28 and 58 at Horröd and Hasslöv, respectively. Variations between study sites could not be explained by differences in bulk density, geochemistry or mineralogy. The accumulated weathering losses since deglaciation were larger in the uppermost 15 cm than in deeper B horizons for most elements studied.