Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Integrating energy efficiency performance in production management – gap analysis between industrial needs and scientific literature

For governments and for manufacturing companies, global warming, rising energy prices, and customers’ increasing ecological awareness have pushed energy efficient manufacturing to the top of the agenda. Governments and companies are both striving to identify the most effective measures to increase energy efficiency in manufacturing processes. Based on results of a recent EU-funded roadmapping project, this paper highlights the needs of industrial companies for integrating energy efficiency performance in production management. First, it analyses concepts and tools for measurement, control and improvement of energy efficiency in production management proposed in literature. Second, the paper outlines that ICT tools and standardization are important enablers for energy efficient manufacturing. Third, industrial needs in these areas are presented based on expert interviews. The industrial needs thus identified are contrasted with concepts proposed in literature to point out the implementation gaps between practice and theory. The paper demonstrates that there exists a gap between the solutions available and the actual implementation in industrial companies. It concludes by deriving requirements for energy management in production that future collaborative research projects should address.     

Underlying reasons of the controversy over adverse effects of Bt toxins on lady beetle and lacewing larvae

In their recent study, Hilbeck et al. (2012) report that Cry1Ab causes lethal effects on larvae of the ladybird beetle Adalia bipunctata when fed directly to the predator. Such toxic effects were not previously observed in a direct feeding study conducted by us (álvarez-Alfageme et al. 2011). Because Hilbeck et al. (2012) claim that our study design did not allow us to detect any adverse effects we provide arguments for the value and relevance of our study in this commentary. Furthermore we discuss two additional published studies that have not revealed any direct effects of Cry1Ab on larvae of A. bipunctata and are not mentioned by Hilbeck et al. (2012). One of the studies was conducted in our laboratory under more realistic exposure conditions (álvarez-Alfageme et al. 2011). Feeding A. bipunctata larvae with spider mites reared on Bt maize did not reveal any adverse effects on lethal and sublethal parameters of the predator. This was despite the fact that the larvae had ingested high amounts of biologically-active Cry1Ab protein. Thus, we do not see verified evidence that A. bipunctata larvae are sensitive to Cry1Ab at realistic worst-case exposure concentrations. This, together with the fact that A. bipunctata will be little exposed to Cry1Ab under field conditions, allows us to conclude that the risk of Bt maize to this predator is negligible. Support for this comes from the results of many Bt maize field studies that have not revealed evidence for direct Cry1Ab-effects on non-Lepidoptera species.     

Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

Estimating pesticide runoff in small streams

Surface runoff is one of the most important pathways for pesticides to enter surface waters. Mathematical models are employed to characterize its spatio-temporal variability within landscapes, but they must be simple owing to the limited availability and low resolution of data at this scale. This study aimed to validate a simplified spatially-explicit model that is developed for the regional scale to calculate the runoff potential (RP). The RP is a generic indicator of the magnitude of pesticide inputs into streams via runoff. The underlying runoff model considers key environmental factors affecting runoff (precipitation, topography, land use, and soil characteristics), but predicts losses of a generic substance instead of any one pesticide. We predicted and evaluated RP for 20 small streams. RP input data were extracted from governmental databases. Pesticide measurements from a triennial study were used for validation. Measured pesticide concentrations were standardized by the applied mass per catchment and the water solubility of the relevant compounds. The maximum standardized concentration per site and year (runoff loss, R_Loss) provided a generalized measure of observed pesticide inputs into the streams. Average RP explained 75% (p < 0.001) of the variance in R_Loss. Our results imply that the generic indicator can give an adequate estimate of runoff inputs into small streams, wherever data of similar resolution are available. Therefore, we suggest RP for a first quick and cost-effective location of potential runoff hot spots at the landscape level.     

Determination of 10 particle-associated multiclass polar and semi-polar pesticides from small streams using accelerated solvent extraction

A new analytical method using accelerated solvent extraction was developed for the determination of 10 particle-associated polar and semipolar pesticides. In addition, six deuterated analogues of the target compounds were evaluated as internal standards. The method yielded acceptable accuracy (73–103% recovery) and precision (<25% relative standard deviation) for eight compounds. Using size exclusion chromatography (SEC) as cleanup step resulted in higher recoveries compared to solid phase extraction (SPE) cleanup.

Deuterated standards with 10 or more deuterium atoms performed well as internal standards concerning similar recovery and correlation with the target analytes.

The method was employed to extract particle-associated pesticides from 16 streams located in an area with intense agriculture in France. Acetochlor, pirimicarb, tebuconazole, fenpropidin, -endosulfan and chlorfenvinphos were detected at concentrations up to 1 mg kg⁻¹ dry weight. A comparison with aquatic toxicity data indicated potential risk to the benthic fauna exposed to these concentrations of pirimicarb, -endosulfan and chlorfenvinphos.

We suggest that the method presented here be used for the extraction and quantitation of particle-associated polar pesticides.     

Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security. We applied this approach to 268 smallholder households using information from two existing regional assessments and from our own household survey. The cluster analysis revealed four vulnerability patterns that depict typical combinations of household attributes, including their harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education level and non-agricultural income. We validated the identified vulnerability patterns by demonstrating the correlation between them and an independently reported damage: the purchase of food and fodder resulting from exposure to weather extremes. The vulnerability patterns were then ranked according to the different amounts of purchase. A second validation aspect accounted for independently reported mechanisms explaining smallholders’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the similarities among the households, our study contributes to the understanding of vulnerability beyond individual cases. In particular, the validation strengthens the credibility and suitability of our findings for decision-making pertaining to the reduction of vulnerability.     

Impact of the use of waste on trace element concentrations in cement and concrete.

The results of model calculations carried out to identify and quantify the input pathways of trace elements into cement and concrete and to estimate the extent to which trace element concentrations in cement may change due to waste utilization are presented. As expected, primary raw materials represented the most important input pathway for trace elements into cement, but the contribution from wastes was not negligible. The use of waste led to a slight increase of the concentrations of cadmium, antimony and zinc in cement. For cobalt, lead and vanadium, this increase was less distinct and for all other trace elements considered, the effect of the use of wastes on trace element concentrations in cement could not be demonstrated clearly. The trace element content of concrete was governed by the aggregates for most elements considered. However, for arsenic, cadmium, lead and zinc, both cement and the additive coal fly ash contributed noticeably to the total trace element concentration in the concrete.     

Dynamics of skeleton formation in the Lake Baikal sponge Lubomirskia baicalensis. Part II. Molecular biological studies

In a preceding study it has been reported that the freshwater sponge Lubomirskia baicalensis, living in Lake Baikal (East Siberia), is composed of spicules forming a characteristic pattern which follows radiate accretive growth. Here we report that the spicules are synthesized by the enzyme silicatein, a protein which is related to cathepsin L. The cDNAs for silicatein and the related cathepsin L were isolated and used as probes to show that the mRNA levels of silicatein in the bases of the spicule skeleton of the animals are low, while the mRNA level of cathepsin L in this region exceeds that of the growing zone. This is the first comprehensive study on the importance of the axial filament/silicatein as an essential structural and functional component determining the growth and stability of demosponge spicules.Note: Sequences from Lubomirskia baicalensis have been deposited in the EMBL/GenBank; cDNAs for the putative silicatein (LBSILICA) are deposited under the accession no. AJ786771 and for cathepsin L (LBCATL) under the accession no. AJ786770.