Accurate modeling of harvesting is key for projecting future forest dynamics: a case study in the Slovenian mountains

Maintaining the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services requires to take into consideration forest sensitivity and adaptability to a changing environment. In this context, dynamic models are indispensable to assess the combined effects of management and climate change on forest dynamics. We evaluated the importance of implementing different approaches for simulating forest management in the climate-sensitive gap model ForClim and compared its outputs with forest inventory data at multiple sites across the European Alps. The model was then used to study forest dynamics in representative silver fir–European beech stands in the Dinaric Mountains (Slovenia) under current management and different climate scenarios. On average, ForClim accurately predicted the development of basal area and stem numbers, but the type of harvesting algorithm used and the information for stand initialization are key elements that must be defined carefully. Empirical harvesting functions that rigorously impose the number and size of stems to remove fail to reproduce stand dynamics when growth is just slightly under- or overestimated, and thus should be substituted by analytical thinning algorithms that are based on stochastic distribution functions. Long-term simulations revealed that both management and climate change negatively impact conifer growth and regeneration. Under current climate, most of the simulated stands were dominated by European beech at the end of the simulation (i.e., 2150 AD), due to the decline of silver fir and Norway spruce caused mainly by harvesting. This trend was amplified under climate change as growth of European beech was favored by higher temperatures, in contrast to drought-induced growth reductions in both conifers. This forest development scenario is highly undesired by local managers who aim at preserving conifers with high economic value. Overall, our results suggest that maintaining a considerable share of conifers in these forests may not be feasible under climate change, especially at lower elevations where foresters should consider alternative management strategies.     

Assessing the removal potential of soil-aquifer treatment system (soil column) for endotoxin

Soil-aquifer treatment (SAT) of wastewater is an increasingly valued practice for replenishing aquifers due to ease of operation and low maintenance needs and therefore low cost. In this study, we investigated the fate of endotoxins through laboratory-scale SAT soil columns over a four month period. The effluent of rapid sand filtration was run through the columns under gravity flow conditions. Four SAT columns were packed with four different filter materials (fine sand, medium sand, coarse sand and very coarse sand). The effluent of rapid sand filtration (average dissolved organic carbon (DOC) = 4 mg l(-1) and average endotoxin concentration = 4 EU ml(-1)) was collected from a domestic wastewater treatment plant in Sapporo, Japan. DOC removal ranged from 12.5% to greater than 22.5% during the study, with DOC levels averaging 3.1 and 3.5 mg l(-1) for the SAT columns packed with different soils. Endotoxin transformation exhibited different profiles, depending on the time and soil type. Reduction in endotoxin concentration averaged 64.3% and was as high as 86.7% across the soil columns 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. While DOC removal was gradual, the reductions in endotoxin levels were rather rapid and most of the removal was achieved in the top layers. Soil with a larger grain size had lower efficiency in removing endotoxin. Tests were performed to evaluate the transformation of organic matter showing endotoxicity and to determine the mechanisms responsible for changes in the structural and size properties of dissolved organic matter (OM) during SAT. Dissolved OM was fractionated using Sep-Pack C18 Cartridges into hydrophobic and hydrophilic fractions. Dialysis tubes with different molecular weight cut-offs were used to perform size fractions of OM showing endotoxicity. Evaluation of the transformation of organic matter showing endotoxicity during SAT indicated that both hydrophobic and large molecules were reduced. Moreover, experimental findings showed that adsorption test data fit to the Freundlich isotherm and were affected by the particle grain size with higher adsorption capacity for fine and medium sand.     

Importance of the Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) to breeding rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata) on Teuri Island, Sea of Japan

Temporal variation in the diet and chick growth of rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata), on Teuri Island, Sea of Japan, was studied to understand how local marine environmental changes affect the reproduction of this piscivorous seabird. The food delivered by parents to chicks was sampled every 1-2 weeks from late May to July, 1994-1998. Overall, the diet of nestling rhinoceros auklets consisted of (by mass) 61% Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus), 18% Japanese sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), 18% Japan Sea greenling (Pleurogrammus azonus), 2% other fish and 1% squid. Among years, the contribution of anchovy ranged from 16% to 93%. Once anchovy occurred in the diet, it dominated (80% on average) thereafter. Accordingly, when anchovy appeared in the diet early in the chick-rearing season (1994, 1998), the contribution of anchovy overall was large. The first appearance of anchovy in the diet of auklets late in the summer of 1997 was possibly related to negatively anomalous sea-surface temperature. Food loads composed of anchovy (34.0 g) were heavier than those of sand lance (22.5 g) and greenling (28.5 g). The energy density of anchovies also was higher: 6.3 kJ g^-1 wet mass compared to 0+ greenling (4.78 kJ g^-1) and 0+ sand lance (3.78 kJ g^-1). Thus, a high proportion of anchovy in the diet resulted in high food load mass, high daily growth rates of chicks and high fledging success. This study highlighted the importance of the time of arrival of migratory high-lipid prey, which is influenced by local oceanographic conditions, to the reproductive performance of a piscivorous seabird.     

‘Learning by doing’: adaptive planning as a strategy to address uncertainty in planning

Adaptive management, an established method in natural resource and ecosystem management, has not been widely applied to landscape planning due to the lack of an operational method that addresses the role of uncertainty and standardized monitoring protocols and methods. A review of adaptive management literature and practices reveals several key concepts and principles for adaptive planning: (1) management actions are best understood and practiced as experiments; (2) several plans/experiments can be implemented simultaneously; (3) monitoring of management actions are key; and (4) adaptive management can be understood as ‘learning by doing’. The paper identifies various uncertainties in landscape planning as the major obstacles for the adoption of an adaptive approach. To address the uncertainty in landscape planning, an adaptive planning method is proposed where monitoring plays an integral role to reduce uncertainty. The proposed method is then applied to a conceptual test in water resource planning addressing abiotic-biotic-cultural resources. To operationalize adaptive planning, it is argued that professionals, stakeholders and researchers need to function in a genuinely transdisciplinary mode where all contribute to, and benefit from, decision making and the continuous generation of new knowledge.     

Validation of oesophagus temperature recording for detection of prey ingestion on captive Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae)

The efficiency of oesophagus and stomach temperature loggers to detect ingestion of prey items was studied in captive Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) fed on land in Antarctica and in an aquarium in Japan. On land, the detection rate was studied for different masses of prey delivered at various frequencies, while in the pool the delay between capture and swallowing was investigated. The rate at which food items were detected and the magnitude of the temperature drops induced were higher in the oesophagus than in the stomach. Where small food items were delivered at a high frequency, birds collected prey items in the beak before swallowing them. Thus, oesophagus sensors may underestimate the number of prey swallowed if the system is used in the wild. In the oesophagus temperature recordings, the magnitude of drops was weakly, but positively, correlated to the mass of single, ingested prey (R ²=0.40). Received: 24 April 2000 / Accepted: 20 September 2000     

Levels and regional trends of persistent organochlorines and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in Asian breast milk demonstrate POPs signatures unique to individual countries

Human breast milk samples collected in 2007–2008 from four countries, Vietnam (Hanoi), China (Beijing), Korea (Seoul) and Japan (Sendai, Kyoto and Takayama), were analyzed for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs), chlordane-related compounds (CHLs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Comparing with previous surveys, the present study indicates that the DDTs in breast milk from China and Vietnam had gradually decreased during the last decade, but were still 5–10 times higher than those in other nations. The ratios of p,p′-DDE/p,p′-DDT and o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT were higher in Beijing than in the other countries, suggesting that there is less fresh intake of commercial DDT products and a possible exposure to dicofol in China. CHL and PCB levels were relatively higher in mothers from Japan, whereas β-HCH and HCB were more common in Chinese women. In Japan, it is suspected that mothers in the urban/coastal area (Sendai) were more continuously exposed to organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) than mothers in the rural/inland area (Takayama). In addition, OCP levels in primiparae were significantly higher than those in multiparae from Japan and Korea. These indicate that both parity and regional factors are major determinants of the levels of OCPs and PCBs in human milk. On the other hand, higher concentrations of PBDEs were observed in mothers' milk from Korea. The congener was dominated by BDE-47 (43–54%), followed by BDE-153 (23–33%) in all regions except for Beijing where BDE-28 (23%) was relatively abundant. In Japanese breast milk, regional and parity-dependent distributions were not observed for PBDEs. Among PBDE congeners, age-dependency was observed for BDE-153, which was negatively correlated (p < 0.05) to the age of mothers in Kyoto (17 participants were housewives), while it increased with age in Sendai (10 participants were clerks). No such correlation was seen for BDE-47, indicating that BDE-47 was ingested and assimilated via different kinetics or routes from BDE-153 in Japan.     

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in blood collected from 195 pregnant women in Sapporo City, Japan

We measured the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), non-ortho coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (non-ortho PCBs), and mono-ortho coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (mono-ortho PCBs) in blood collected between 2002 and 2004 from 195 pregnant women living in Sapporo City of Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan. The present study is one of the few studies in which PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin-like PCBs have been measured in the blood of pregnant women. Of the 195 pregnant women, 101 were primipara (mean: 28.8 years) and 94 were multipara (mean: 32.4 years). The arithmetic mean total TEQ concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, non-ortho PCBs, and mono-ortho PCBs of primiparous and multiparous mothers in Sapporo City were 17.4 (median: 15.7) and 14.0 (median: 13.9)pgTEQ/glipid, respectively, and the concentrations were in the range of 6.6-43.4 and 3.4-28.2pgTEQ/glipid, respectively. In regard to the relationship between the total TEQ concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, non-ortho PCBs, and mono-ortho PCBs in maternal blood and the number of deliveries or age of primiparous and multiparius mothers, the levels of these dioxin-like compounds tended to decrease with increases in the number of deliveries and significantly increased with increasing maternal age in both groups. Furthermore, significant correlations were observed between the total TEQ concentrations of these dioxin-like compounds and the age of primiparae and multiparae. The total TEQ concentration of PCDDs, PCDFs, non-ortho PCBs, and mono-ortho PCBs measured in 195 pregnant women has decreased compared to past levels in Japan for the last several decades. The results of the present study have indicated that dioxin contamination in the blood of young women in Japan is continuing to decrease.     

Longitudinal increases in PCDD/F and dl-PCB concentrations in human milk in northern China

There is a dearth of information on the temporal changes in polychlorinated dibenzodioxin/furans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) contamination, in both environmental and biological specimens, in China. We compared the concentrations of PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs in human milk collected in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, in northern China in 2002 (n=30) and 2007 (n=20). The level of PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs showed an increasing trend. The mean concentrations of PCDD/Fs plus dl-PCBs were 4.47 TEQ pg g(-1) fat and 6.24 TEQ pg g(-1) fat in human milk from Shijiazhuang in 2002 and in 2007, respectively. Based on statistical analysis of questionnaire data collected by in-person interviews with mothers, we found positive correlations between consumption of sea fish and PCDFs. The PCDDs, PCDFs, PCDD/Fs, and PCDD/Fs plus dl-PCBs levels in individuals consuming greater amounts of sea fish were higher than those consuming less sea fish, both with and without adjustments for potential confounding factors. Among 17 congeners of PCDD/Fs, the 2,3,7,8-TCDF, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF, 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF, 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF, and 2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF congener concentrations in 2007 increased 134%, 55%, 53%, 57%, 65% and 130% when compared to 2002 levels, respectively. The 2007 dl-PCB congener levels were greater than those of the 2002 samples, with the exception of PCB81 and PCB77. Specifically, PCB105, PCB114, PCB118, PCB123 and PCB156 had increased greater than twofold from 2002 to 2007. Continuous surveillance of PCDD/F and dl-PCB levels in human milk is needed to accurately evaluate both environmental contamination and the human health risk to neonates in China.     

Estimation and simulation for geospatial porosity and permeability data

Reservoir simulation of \(\hbox {CO}_2\) sequestration, energy recovery, and environmental contamination scenarios must be accompanied by uncertainty quantification. Typically this is done by stochastically modeling porosity and permeability fields, simulating realizations based on the model, and then numerically simulating flow and transport. The challenge is to generate simulated porosity and permeability fields with characteristics as similar as possible to those known of the reservoir under study. In this paper we focus on the first two steps above in analyzing a large 3-dimensional array of geospatial porosity data and using the results to produce simulated data with characteristics mimicking those of the original porosity observations. The spatial covariance is empirically approximated from horizontal cross sections of the data via a kernel principle component analysis yielding dimension reduction. Simulations in three dimensions are produced by linking consecutive parallel cross sections via conditioning on a small subarray of the data. The conditional simulations effectively reproduce observed channeling, an important large scale feature of interest in the sub-surface relevant to transport of contaminates. The original porosity data is non-Gaussian and requires additional analysis and transformation to generate both porosity and permeability fields.