Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.     

Platinum in PM2.5 of the metropolitan area of Mexico City

The increase in platinum (Pt) in the airborne particulate matter with size ≤2.5 µm (PM_2.5) in urban environments may be interpreted as result of the abrasion and deterioration of automobile catalyst. Nowadays, about four million vehicles in Mexico City use catalytic converters, which means that their impact should be considered. In order to evaluate the contribution of Pt to environmental pollution of the metropolitan area of Mexico City (MAMC), airborne PM_2.5 was collected at five different sites in the urban area (NW, NE, C, SW, SE) in 2011 during April (dry-warm season), August (rainy season) and December (dry-cold season). Analytical determinations were carried out using a ICP-MS with a collision cell and kinetic energy discrimination. The analytical and instrument performance was evaluated with standard road dust reference material (BCR-723). Median Pt concentration in the analyzed particulate was is 38.4 pg m^?3 (minimal value 1 pg m^?3 maximal value 79 pg m^?3). Obtained Pt concentrations are higher than those reported for other urban areas. Spatial variation shows that SW had Pt concentration significantly higher than NW and C only. Seasonal variation shows that Pt median was higher in rainy season than in both dry seasons. A comparison of these results with previously reported data of PM₁₀ from 1991 and 2003 in the same studied area shows a worrying increase in the concentration of Pt in the air environment of MAMC.     

A numerical investigation of three-dimensional falling liquid films

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - In this article, we present a full three-dimensional numerical study of thin liquid films falling on a vertical surface, by solving the full three-dimensional...     

Role of casting and curing conditions on the strength and drying shrinkage of greener concrete

The shrinkage of cement-based materials is a critical dimensional property that needs proper attention as it can influence the corresponding characteristics especially when the preparation of such cement-based material is done in hot weather. Studies have shown that the casting or curing conditions influence the performance of concrete. However, there is limited understanding of the combined role of casting temperature and curing conditions, especially for concrete made with unconventional binders. In this study, five supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) were utilized as the substitute of the ordinary Portland cement (OPC) at different ratios to produce greener concrete and improve its characteristics and sustainability. The influence of four casting temperatures (i.e., 25 °C, 32 °C, 38 °C, and 45 °C) and two curing regimes (i.e., covering of samples using wet burlap and applying curing compound on the surface of samples) on the corresponding compressive strength and drying shrinkage at various ages was studied. The outcomes of this research revealed that the composition of the binders has a substantial impact on the characteristics of concrete. In addition, the casting temperature and curing regimes also have a huge role on the compressive strength of concrete produced with binary binders. For example, the compressive strength at 3 days of concrete made at 25 °C made with binary binders was reduced up to 31% compared to that made with only OPC as the binder when cured using wet burlap. Nonetheless, less than 38 ℃ was suitable to minimize the durability issues in the studied blended cement mixes.

     

Determination of metal accumulation in deposited street dusts in Amman, Jordan

Street dust samples (120 in total) were collected under stable weather conditions during the hot, dry season (August and September) of 2004 from six different localities (industrial, heavy traffic, medium traffic, light traffic, low traffic and rural) in greater Amman, the capital of Jordan. The concentrations of Fe, Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn and Ni in the dusts were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The high concentrations of Pb, Fe and Zn in the street dust samples were related to both anthropogenic (industrial sources combined with traffic sources) and natural sources. Surprisingly, the concentrations of Cd in the dusts were low. Correlation coefficient analysis and principle component analysis identified three main sources of these elements and the corresponding distributions. The elements Pb, Zn, Cd, Fe, Cu and Ni were mainly derived from industrial sources, with Pb and Zn additionally derived from traffic sources. The street dusts were found to have highly elevated levels of Zn, particularly along the main trunk roads, indicating that the Zn in the street dusts may be derived from traffic sources, especially vehicle tyres. The concentrations of metals in the different street dust samples were found to vary depending on the density of traffic.     

Decision making under uncertainty using PEES–fuzzy AHP–fuzzy TOPSIS methodology for landfill location selection

The location selection for landfill municipal solid waste is an important issue in waste management. Selection of the optimal location requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation factors because of system complexity. Further, ranking of the alternative locations and selection of the most optimal and efficient locations for landfill waste are an important multi-criteria decision-making problem. In this study, the candidate locations for landfill are determined based on Political, Economical, Environmental and Social factors are assessed through decision-makers’ opinion and by the methodology that incorporates fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP) and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (fuzzy TOPSIS). Specifically, the fuzzy AHP technique is applied to determine the weights of selected criteria impacting the location selection process, and the fuzzy AHP is adapted to model the linguistic vagueness and ambiguity, which can also be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, fuzzy TOPSIS technique is employed to rank the alternative locations. The applicability of this methodology is demonstrated by a case study of landfill waste location selection in the region of Casablanca, Morocco, and the results are compared with other techniques. Finally, to complete the treatment, a sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of the preferences given by decision-makers to choose the best location.     

Vaquita Bycatch in Mexico's Artisanal Gillnet Fisheries: Driving a Small Population to Extinction

Abstract: The world's most endangered marine cetacean, the vaquita (   Phocoena sinus ), continues to be caught in small-mesh gillnet fisheries throughout much of its range. We monitored fishing effort and incidental vaquita mortality in the upper Gulf of California, Mexico, from January 1993 to January 1995 to study the magnitude and causes of the incidental take. Of those factors studied, including net mesh size, soaktime, and geographic area, none contributed significantly to the incidental mortality rate of the vaquita, implying that the principal cause of mortality is fishing with gillnets per se . The total estimated incidental mortality caused by the fleet of El Golfo de Santa Clara was 39 vaquitas per year (95% CI = 14, 93), over 17% of the most recent estimate of population size. El Golfo de Santa Clara is one of three main ports that support gillnet fisheries throughout the range of the vaquita. Preliminary results indicate that fishing effort for San Felipe, Baja California, is comparable to that of El Golfo de Santa Clara, suggesting that this estimate of incidental mortality of vaquitas represents a minimum. We strongly recommend a complete and permanent ban on gillnets in the area. Alternative or supplemental mitigation strategies include (1) a maximum annual allowable mortality limit of vaquitas; (2) mandatory observer coverage of all boats fishing within the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve; (3) extension of the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve to encompass all known vaquita habitat; (4) rigorous enforcement of new and existing regulations; and (5) development of alternative sources of income for gillnet fishers.