Global environmental change: the contribution of social science research to policy in the UK

Research into global environmental change in the United Kingdom, has sought to influence public policy. It has also served to refashion the social sciences themselves, forcing them to consider sustainability as a dimension of all social and economic behaviour. This paper describes the way in which the principle of enhanced sustainability might become a point of reference in social science research. It discusses, some of the lessons that have been learned from the Global Environmental Change Programme and then considers the relationship between this work and research on the environment undertaken within the natural sciences.This paper was presented as a keynote delivery at the Global Forum '94 Conference Towards a sustainable Future: Promoting Sustainable Development, Manchester, UK.     

A LONG‐TERM,WATERSHED‐SCALE,EVALUATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ANIMAL WASTE BMPs ON INDICATOR BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Driven by increasing concerns about bacterial pollution from agricultural sources, states such as Virginia have initiated cost sharing programs that encourage the use of animal waste best management practices (BMPs) to control this pollution. Although a few studies have shown that waste management BMPs are effective at the field scale, their effectiveness at the watershed scale and over the long term is unknown. The focus of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of BMPs in reducing bacterial pollution at the watershed scale and over the long term. To accomplish this goal, a 1,163 ha watershed located in the Piedmont region of Virginia was monitored over a ten‐year period. Fecal coliforms (FC) and fecal streptococci (FS) were measured as indicators of bacterial pollution. A pre‐BMP versus post‐BMP design was adopted. Major BMPs implemented were manure storage facilities, stream fencing, water troughs, and nutrient management. Seasonal Kendall trend analysis revealed a significant decreasing trend during the post‐BMP period for FC concentrations at the watershed outlet, but not at the subwatershed level. Implementation of BMPs also resulted in a significant reduction in the geometric mean of FS concentrations. FC concentrations in streamflow at the watershed outlet exceeded the Virginia primary standard 86 and 74 percent of the time during pre‐BMP and post‐BMP periods, respectively. Corresponding exceedances for the secondary standard were 50 and 41 percent. Violations decreased only slightly during the post‐BMP period. The findings of this study suggest that although BMP implementation can be expected to accomplish some improvement in water quality, BMP implementation alone may not ensure compliance with current water quality standards.     

瑞典水文变化-气候变化影响模拟

温室效应加剧导致的气候变化将会引起水文系统的变化.随着气候要素的变化,水文变化将会在全球呈现出区域差异性.因此,有必要开展局地和区域尺度上的水文变化影响研究,评价不同区域将会受到怎样的影响.本研究旨在对广泛的瑞典流域上气候变化的水文影响(响应)进行评估.我们采用不同的方法,将气候模型中产生的气候变化信号转换输入到水文模型中.利用瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)生成的区域气候情景,我们进行了几次水文模型模拟研究.得出的基本结论是根据流域的地理位置处于瑞典北部或南部,气候变化对河道水流的分区影响是显著不同的.此外,预测的水文变化不仅与用于确定区域气候模型边界条件的全球气候模型的选择有关,而且与人为气体排放情景的选取有关.     

Role of soil sorption and microbial degradation on dissipation of mesotrione in plant-available soil water

Mesotrione is a carotenoid biosynthesis-inhibiting herbicide labeled for pre-emergence and postemergence weed control in corn production. Understanding the factors that influence the dissipation of mesotrione in soil and in the plant-available water (PAW) is important for the environmental fate assessment and optimal weed management practices. The present research investigated the role of soil properties and microbial activities on the interrelated sorption and degradation processes of mesotrione in four soils by direct measurements of PAW. We found that mesotrione bound to the soils time dependently, with approximately 14 d to reach equilibrium. The 24-h batch-slurry equilibrium experiments provided the sorption partition coefficient ranging from 0.26 to 3.53 L kg(-1), depending on soil organic carbon and pH. The dissipation of mesotrione in the soil-bound phase was primarily attributed to desorption to the PAW. Degradation in the PAW was rapid and primarily dependent on microbial actions, with half-degradation time (DT(50)) <3 d in all four soils tested. The rapid degradation in the PAW became rate limited by sorption as more available molecules were depleted in the soil pore water, resulting in a more slowed overall process for the total soil-water system (DT(50) <26 d). The dissipation of mesotrione in the PAW was due to microbial metabolism and time-dependent sorption to the soils. A coupled kinetics model calibrated with the data from the laboratory centrifugation technique provided an effective approach to investigate the interrelated processes of sorption and degradation in realistic soil moisture conditions.     

Generating Synthetic Rainfall on Various Timescales—Daily, Monthly and Yearly

The main objective of this paper is to present a model for generating synthetic rainfall totals on various timescales to be applicable for a variety of uses. Many large-scale ecological and water resource models require daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data as input to the model. As historical data provides only one realisation, synthetic generated rainfall totals are needed to assess the impact of rainfall variability on water resources systems (Srikanthan, In: MODSIM2005, Melbourne, Dec. 2005, pp. 1915–1921, 2005). Thus, our preferred model should simulate rainfall for yearly, monthly and daily periods. We believe that, for water supply issues, no higher resolution is needed, although higher resolution would be useful in models designed to measure the risk of local flooding. The critical factors are daily, monthly and yearly totals and daily, monthly and yearly variation. A model for generating yearly totals will be described using traditional time series methods. This model, along with a similarly constructed daily generation model by Piantadosi et al. (A New Model for Correlated Daily Rainfall, 2008), will be cascaded to start with a synthetic yearly total, then generate a synthetic sequence of monthly totals (through selection from a large number of realisations) that match the yearly total, and subsequently perform a similar operation for sequences of daily totals to match the required monthly totals. We present a new model for the generation of synthetic monthly rainfall data, which we demonstrate for Parafield in Adelaide, South Australia. The rainfall for each month of the year is modelled as a non-negative random variable from a mixed distribution with either a zero outcome or a strictly positive outcome. We use maximum likelihood to find parameters for both the probability of a zero outcome and the gamma distribution that best matches the observed probability density for the strictly positive outcomes. We describe a new model that generates correlated monthly rainfall totals using a diagonal band copula with a single parameter to generate lag-1 correlated random numbers. Our model preserves the marginal monthly distributions and, hence, also preserves the monthly and yearly means. We show that, for Parafield, the correlation between rainfall totals for successive months is not significant, and so, it is reasonable to assume independence. This is, however, not true for daily rainfall. We describe a new model that generates correlated daily rainfall totals using a diagonal band copula with a single parameter to generate lag-1 correlated random numbers. This is an extended version of a paper presented at the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Christchurch, New Zealand, December 2007.     

ERI evaluation of injectates used at a dry‐cleaning site

A former dry‐cleaning site in Jackson, Tennessee, has undergone remediation to treat dense nonaqueous‐phase liquid (trichloroethene [TCE] and tetrachloroethene [PCE]) contamination in the subsurface. The dry cleaning operation closed in 1977. In 2002, a series of injections were made at the site consisting of corn syrup, vegetable oils, and Simple Green®. In 2004, approximately 200 cubic yards of contaminated soil were excavated, and the bottom of the excavation was covered with sodium lactate. In 2009, the site was characterized using proprietary electrical resistivity imaging (ERI; commercially available as Aestus GeoTrax Surveys^TM). Follow‐up confirmation soil borings targeted anomalies detected via the geophysical work. The results indicate an extremely electrically conductive (less than 1 ohm‐m) vadose zone downgradient from the injection wells, and extremely electrically resistive areas (greater than 10,000 ohm‐m) in the phreatic zone near the injection area. The sample data indicate that the electrically resistive anomalous zones contain moderate to high concentrations of undegraded dry‐cleaning compounds. Electrically conductive anomalous zones are interpreted to be areas of biological activity generated by the amendments injected into the subsurface based on the extreme conductivity values detected, the chemical composition (i.e., PCE degradates are present), and the dominant vadose‐zone location of the conductive zones. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Intrauterine rescue transfusion in monochorionic multiple pregnancies with recent single intrauterine death

To assess the role of fetal blood sampling and intrauterine transfusion in monochorionic (MC) multiple pregnancy complicated by single intrauterine death (IUD), we reviewed ten cases over a 4-year period in a tertiary referral centre which underwent fetal blood sampling within 24 h of death of its MC co-twin. Intrauterine rescue transfusion was performed in all seven anaemic fetuses (hematocrit; Hct<30%) to raise the fetal Hct to ≥40%. The rationale was to prevent death and/or brain injury. Two fetuses, which were severely acidaemic at blood sampling, died in utero within 24 h of the procedure. In two cases, the surviving twins manifested abnormal sonographic findings of the fetal brain 2–5 weeks later and underwent late termination. In two cases, the pregnancies continued uneventfully until delivery at 35 and 40 weeks' gestation with good neonatal outcome. In one case the co-twin delivered 1 week later at 29 weeks but died within 12 h. Fetuses without anaemia were not transfused and had normal clinical outcomes. We suggest that intrauterine rescue transfusion before the development of severe acidaemia in anaemic surviving MC co-twins may prevent fetal death, but does not necessarily prevent brain injury. Until its role becomes clearer, we recommend that its use be restricted to situations in which the parents and the local jurisdiction allow late termination as an option if brain injury subsequently manifests on ultrasound. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Optimizing Liquid Effluent Monitoring at a Large Nuclear Complex

Effluent monitoring typically requires a large number of analytes and samples during the initial or startup phase of a facility. Once a baseline is established, the analyte list and sampling frequency may be reduced. Although there is a large body of literature relevant to the initial design, few, if any, published papers exist on updating established effluent monitoring programs. This paper statistically evaluates four years of baseline data to optimize the liquid effluent monitoring efficiency of a centralized waste treatment and disposal facility at a large defense nuclear complex. Specific objectives were to: (1) assess temporal variability in analyte concentrations, (2) determine operational factors contributing to waste stream variability, (3) assess the probability of exceeding permit limits, and (4) streamline the sampling and analysis regime. Results indicated that the probability of exceeding permit limits was one in a million under normal facility operating conditions, sampling frequency could be reduced, and several analytes could be eliminated. Furthermore, indicators such as gross alpha and gross beta measurements could be used in lieu of more expensive specific isotopic analyses (radium, cesium-137, and strontium-90) for routine monitoring. Study results were used by the state regulatory agency to modify monitoring requirements for a new discharge permit, resulting in an annual cost savings of US $223,000. This case study demonstrates that statistical evaluation of effluent contaminant variability coupled with process knowledge can help plant managers and regulators streamline analyte lists and sampling frequencies based on detection history and environmental risk.