Application of real option analysis for planning under climate change uncertainty: a case study for evaluation of flood mitigation plans in Korea

With concerns regarding global climate change increasing, recent studies on adapting to nonstationary climate change recommended a different planning strategy that could spread risks. Uncertainty in global climate change should be considered in any decision-making processes for flood mitigation strategies, especially in areas within a monsoon climate regime. This study applied a novel planning method called real option analysis (ROA) to an important water resources planning practice in Korea. The proposed method can easily be applied to other watersheds that are threatened by flood risk under climate change. ROA offers flexibility for decision-makers to reflect uncertainty at every stage during the project planning period. We successfully implemented ROA using a binomial tree model, including two real options—delay and abandon—to evaluate flood mitigation alternatives for the Yeongsan River Basin in Korea. The priority ranking of the four alternatives between the traditional discount cash flow (DCF) and ROA remained the same; however, two alternatives that were assessed as economically infeasible using DCF, were economically feasible using ROA. The binomial decision trees generated in this study are expected to be informative for decision-makers to conceptualize their adaptive planning procedure.     

Are there higher pedestrian fatalities in larger cities?: A scaling analysis of 115 to 161 largest cities in the United States

Objective: In 2012, 4,743 pedestrians were killed in the United States, representing 14% of total traffic fatalities. The number of pedestrians injured was higher at 76,000. Therefore, 36 out of 52 of the largest cities in the United States have adopted a citywide target of reducing pedestrian fatalities. The number of cities adopting the reduction goal during 2011 and 2012 increased rapidly with 8 more cities. We examined the scaling relationship of pedestrian fatality counts as a function of the population size of 115 to 161 large U.S. cities during the period of 1994 to 2011. We also examined the scaling relationship of nonpedestrian and total traffic fatality counts as a function of the population size.

Methods: For the data source of fatality measures we used Traffic Safety Facts Fatality Analysis Reporting System/General Estimates System annual reports published each year from 1994 to 2011 by the NHTSA. Using the data source we conducted both annual cross-sectional and panel data bivariate and multivariate regression models. In the construction of the estimated functional relationship between traffic fatality measures and various factors, we used the simple power function for urban scaling used by Bettencourt et al. (2007 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Helbing D, Kühnert C, West GB. Growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007;104:7301–7306.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2010 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Strumsky D, West GB. Urban scaling and its deviations: revealing the structure of wealth, innovation and crime across cities. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e13541.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the refined STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model used in Dietz and Rosa (1994 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review. 1994;1:277–300. [Google Scholar], 1997 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Effects of population and affluence on CO₂ emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1997;94:175–179.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and York et al. (2003 York R, Rosa EA, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and IMPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol Econ. 2003;46:351–365.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

Results: We found that the scaling relationship display diseconomies of scale or sublinear for pedestrian fatalities. However, the relationship displays a superlinear relationship in case of nonpedestrian fatalities. The scaling relationship for total traffic fatality counts display a nearly linear pattern. When the relationship was examined by the 4 subgroups of cities with different population sizes, the most pronounced sublinear scaling relationships for all 3 types of fatality counts was discovered for the subgroup of megacities with a population of more than 1 million.

Conclusions: The scaling patterns of traffic fatalities of subgroups of cities depend on population sizes of the cities in subgroups. In particular, 9 megacities with populations of more than 1 million are significantly different from the remaining cities and should be viewed as a totally separate group. Thus, analysis of the patterns of traffic fatalities needs to be conducted within the group of megacities separately from the other cities with smaller population sizes for devising prevention policies to reduce traffic fatalities in both megacities and smaller cities.     

Successful outcome following prenatal intervention in a female fetus with bladder outlet obstruction

Bladder outlet obstructions are a diverse and heterogeneous group of developmental abnormalities that generally involve obstruction of the proximal urethra in the male fetus. Indications for prenatal intervention are few and are usually restricted to the male fetus because bladder outlet obstruction in female fetuses is usually caused by complex cloacal development anomalies. We report on a female fetus with an enlarged bladder and a dilated proximal urethra (known as typical keyhole sign). A vesicoamniotic shunt was performed despite non-reassuring prognostic factors, but the procedure resulted in a successful outcome. We propose that in selected cases of bladder outlet obstruction, fetal intervention should be considered even when the fetus is female. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recovery of iron oxide and calcium chloride from an iron-rich chloride waste using calcium carbonate

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - The ilmenite-chloride process has used for the production of TiCl4 from the ilmenite (FeTiO3) ore, which produces cyclone dust containing mostly...     

Significance of adverse outcome pathways in biomarker-based environmental risk assessment in aquatic organisms

In environmental risk assessments (ERA), biomarkers have been widely used as an early warning signal of environmental contamination. However, biomarker responses have limitation due to its low relevance to adverse outcomes (e.g., fluctuations in community structure, decreases in population size, and other similar ecobiologically relevant indicators of community structure and function). To mitigate these limitations, the concept of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) was developed. An AOP is an analytical, sequentially progressive pathway that links a molecular initiating event (MIE) to an adverse outcome. Recently, AOPs have been recognized as a potential informational tool by which the implications of molecular biomarkers in ERA can be better understood. To demonstrate the utility of AOPs in biomarker-based ERA, here we discuss a series of three different biological repercussions caused by exposure to benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), and selenium (Se). Using mainly aquatic invertebrates and selected vertebrates as model species, we focus on the development of the AOP concept. Aquatic organisms are suitable bioindicator species whose entire lifespans can be observed over a short period; moreover, these species can be studied on the molecular and population levels. Also, interspecific differences between aquatic organisms are important to consider in an AOP framework, since these differences are an integral part of the natural environment. The development of an environmental pollutant-mediated AOP may enable a better understanding of the effects of environmental pollutants in different scenarios in the diverse community of an ecosystem.     

To court or not to court: reproductive decisions by male fiddler crabs in response to fluctuating food availability

For males, courting and foraging are often behavioral alternatives, which take time and consume energy. When males have a possibility of mating with receptive females, there may be a behavioral trade-off between courtship and feeding; the outcome of which may be affected by male physiological condition and food availability. Although many mathematical models and empirical studies suggest that the expression of male courtship signals are condition-dependent, decisions about courtship and mating strategies in relation to food availability have not attracted much attention. In this study, we tested whether daily changes in food availability affect males’ decisions about whether to court. We conducted experiments with the fiddler crab Uca lactea by providing males with additional food every other day. In food-supplemented enclosures, males did not increase courtship activity on the days when food was supplemented. However, they built more courtship structures (semidomes) and waved more on the days when they were not given additional food. Male size had a strong influence on the number of days the males courted. We also tested whether the frequency of surface mating, as an alternative reproductive tactic, decreased when food was supplemented. Contrary to our expectation, the number of males that exhibited the surface-mating tactic increased when food was supplemented whereas the number of mate-searching females did not change. Our findings in this field study suggest that reproductive decisions by male fiddler crabs are affected by fluctuating food availability and present body condition, and the alternative mating tactic of this species may be more frequently used by males under good condition.     

Determination of the swimming trajectory and speed of chain-forming dinoflagellate <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cochlodinium polykrikoides</Emphasis> with digital holographic particle tracking velocimetry

The marine dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a harmful and highly motile algal species. To distinguish between the motility characteristics of solitary and chain-forming cells, the swimming trajectories and speeds of solitary cells and 2- to 8-cell chains of C. polykrikoides were measured using a digital holographic particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) technique. C. polykrikoides cells exhibited helical swimming trajectories similar to other dinoflagellate species. The swimming speed increased as the number of cells in the chain increased, from an average of 391 μm s⁻¹ (solitary cells) to 856 μm s⁻¹ (8-cell chain). The helix radius R and pitch P also increased as the number of cells in the chain increased. R increased from 9.24 μm (solitary cell) to 20.3 μm (8-cell chain) and P increased from 107 μm (solitary cell) to 164 μm (8-cell chain). The free thrust-generating motion of the transverse flagella and large drag reduction in the chain-forming cells seemed to increase the swimming speed compared to solitary cells. The measured swimming speeds agreed with those from field observations. The superior motility of chain-forming C. polykrikoides cells may be an important factor for its bloom, in addition to the factors reported previously.     

Size-selective sampling of particulates using a physiologic sampling pump

Recent laboratory research indicates physiologic sampling of gas and vapor may provide more representative estimates of personal exposures than traditional methods. Modifications to the physiologic sampling pump (PSP) used in that research are described which extend its usefulness to size-selective sampling of particulates. PSPs used in previous research varied motor speed to keep sampling proportional to the subject's inhalation. This caused airflow and particle velocities through the collection device to continually change making those pumps unsuitable for sampling particulates. The modified implementation of the PSP pulls a constant airflow into and through a cyclone, then uses valves to either direct the airflow through, or divert the airflow around, the sampling filter. By using physiologic inputs to regulate the fraction of each second that air flows through the sampling filter, samples may be collected in proportion to inhalation rate. To evaluate the performance of a functional prototype 5 different sizes of monodisperse aerosols of ammonium fluorescein were generated by a vibrating orifice aerosol generator and introduced into a calm air chamber. To simulate different inhalation rates the valves of the PSP were energized using 9 different duty cycles. Efficiency curves are presented and compared to a standard respirable convention by bias mapping. The performance of the modified cyclone used in the PSP sampling head compared favorably with a commercially available cyclone of the same model, operating at a constant airflow (± 10% over almost all the size distributions of concern). The new method makes physiologic sampling of the respirable fraction of particulates feasible.     

Longevity of organic layers of vertical flow ponds for sulfate reduction in treating mine drainages in South Korea

This study was carried out to evaluate longevity of available organic materials used for sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) activity in vertical flow ponds (VFPs) to treat mine drainage in South Korea. Spent mushroom compost samples (SMC) were tested as substrates in VFPs and analyzed for total organic carbon in VFPs, and were collected to analyze total organic carbon (TOC), T-N, T-P, K, metals and residual cellulose to check the longevity assessment. Chemical analysis revealed that the average contents of Fe, Al and Mn in SMC of VFPs were 19,907, 32,137 and 434 mg/kg, respectively. The contents of Fe and Al in SMC of VFPs were much higher than those of the unused SMC (control), but to the contrary, those of Mn showed a reversed tendency. Average TOC content of the controls was 64.19% but in one of the VFP substrates was as low as 15.92%. This might be resulted from SRB consumed the available organic carbon in SMC as VFPs system aged. Contents of T-N in VFPs tended to decrease as VFPs aged. The residual cellulose ranged from 3.88 to 6.72% (g/g). There existed a negative relationship between residual cellulose contents and ages of VFPs. Assuming that SMC in all VFPs had similar compositions when the VFPs were initially established, trend analysis predicted that the amount of carbon source for SRB might be available for 12–15 years further, depending on VFPs.