Source apportionment of fine particles in Tennessee using a source-oriented model

Source apportionment of fine particles (PM2.5, particulate matter < 2 microm in aerodynamic diameter) is important to identify the source categories that are responsible for the concentrations observed at a particular receptor. Although receptor models have been used to do source apportionment, they do not fully take into account the chemical reactions (including photochemical reactions) involved in the formation of secondary fine particles. Secondary fine particles are formed from photochemical and other reactions involving precursor gases, such as sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and volatile organic compounds. This paper presents the results of modeling work aimed at developing a source apportionment of primary and secondary PM2.5. On-road mobile source and point source inventories for the state of Tennessee were estimated and compiled. The national emissions inventory for the year 1999 was used for the other states. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Models3/Community Multi-Scale Air Quality modeling system was used for the photochemical/secondary particulate matter modeling. The modeling domain consisted of a nested 36-12-4-km domain. The 4-km domain covered the entire state of Tennessee. The episode chosen for the modeling runs was August 29 to September 9, 1999. This paper presents the approach used and the results from the modeling and attempts to quantify the contribution of major source categories, such as the on-road mobile sources (including the fugitive dust component) and coal-fired power plants, to observed PM2.5 concentrations in Tennessee. The results of this work will be helpful in policy issues targeted at designing control strategies to meet the PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards in Tennessee.     

Detection of rubella virus in fetal and placental tissues and in the throats of neonates after serologically confirmed rubella in pregnancy

From 35 therapeutic abortions performed because rubella had occurred at 2–19 weeks of pregnancy, 120 fetal organs, 12 specimens of mixed products of conception, and 15 placentae were tested for rubella virus. Virus was isolated from 10 out of 11 fetuses (91 per cent) from women infected at 2–8 weeks, from 5 out of 8 (63 per cent) infected at 9–10 weeks, and from 2 out of 16 (13 per cent) infected at 11–19 weeks. Hybridization tests for viral RNA on 39 fetal organs from eight cases revealed infection in four additional fetuses. Virus was isolated from only 3 out of 15 aborted placentae, but hybridization tests on six placentae revealed infection in three additional specimens. Hybridization was superior to virus isolation for detecting rubella infection in products of conception and is therefore potentially the better method for examining chorionic villus biopsies. Rubella virus was isolated from the throats of 4 out of 9 infants (44 per cent) infected during the first 12 weeks of gestation, but from none of 13 infected after 17 weeks. Infants in the latter group are unlikely to infect susceptible contacts.     

Supervisor behaviors,role stressors and uncertainty as predictors of personal outcomes for subordinates

Among employees of comparable organizations in the United States and New Zealand, role stressors (ambiguity and conflict), along with effort-to-performance uncertainty, performance-to-outcome uncertainty and doubt about acceptance by one's supervisor, generally predicted job satisfaction, psychological strain and turnover intentions. Path analyses of three alternative theoretical models highlighted the importance of job satisfaction as a mediator of the effects of role stressors and uncertainty on strain and turnover intentions. Role stressors contributed separately and via uncertainty to all three outcome measures, but subordinate perceptions of supervisor behaviors added little independent predictive power, once the role stressors and uncertainty were accounted for. These findings support the hypothesis that supervisors can influence the degree of role stress and uncertainty which their subordinates experience, which in turn may affect levels of satisfaction, strain and turnover intentions.     

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species

Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.     

Effects of ultraviolet radiation and contaminant-related stressors on arctic freshwater ecosystems

Climate change is likely to act as a multiple stressor, leading to cumulative and/or synergistic impacts on aquatic systems. Projected increases in temperature and corresponding alterations in precipitation regimes will enhance contaminant influxes to aquatic systems, and independently increase the susceptibility of aquatic organisms to contaminant exposure and effects. The consequences for the biota will in most cases be additive (cumulative) and multiplicative (synergistic). The overall result will be higher contaminant loads and biomagnification in aquatic ecosystems. Changes in stratospheric ozone and corresponding ultraviolet radiation regimes are also expected to produce cumulative and/or synergistic effects on aquatic ecosystem structure and function. Reduced ice cover is likely to have a much greater effect on underwater UV radiation exposure than the projected levels of stratospheric ozone depletion. A major increase in UV radiation levels will cause enhanced damage to organisms (biomolecular, cellular, and physiological damage, and alterations in species composition). Allocations of energy and resources by aquatic biota to UV radiation protection will increase, probably decreasing trophic-level productivity. Elemental fluxes will increase via photochemical pathways.     

What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden?

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetr?sk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetr?sk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetr?sk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations.     

Local air quality management as a risk management process: assessing, managing and remediating the risk of exceeding an air quality objective in Great Britain

Air quality is managed in Great Britain via an effects-based, risk management process designed to provide a dynamic solution to public health issues associated with elevated concentrations of seven specified air pollutants. This paper is concerned with an examination and evaluation of the process of Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) in Great Britain from the late 1980s to date as a risk management process. The statutory basis of LAQM process is provided by the Environment Act 1995. The Act provides a framework in which national and local actions are required to identify and remediate areas of poor air quality. Within this framework, the implementation of the process at national and local levels is considered, leading to an identification and assessment of risks in the formulation and implementation of air quality management policy and practice. Local Authorities began the process of Review and Assessment in 1999 and the first round of the process concluded in 2001. Following this, some 129 Local Authorities declared one or more Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). The Review and Assessment elements of the framework were subjected to an evaluation in 2001 and the essential elements of it were confirmed as fit for purpose. The evaluation led to a confirmation of the process of LAQM but also a simplification based on the experience of Round 1. Now, a two step process is required comprising of an Updating and Screening Assessment and, where a risk of exceeding an Air Quality Objective (AQO) is identified, a Detailed Assessment follows. The Government has identified a time scale for Review and Assessment through to 2010 and also introduced the requirement of a regular Progress Report in order that a Local Authority is able to address routine matters of air quality management. The risks inherent in epidemiological or scientific uncertainty are factored into the LAQM process at an early stage of the process and, by identifying the risks and subjecting them to regular review, the process provides a 'level playing field' across spatial and temporal scales. Whilst the process of LAQM described in this paper has been developed for Great Britain, the generic elements of the process are applicable to other countries challenged by air pollution problems which require both national and local action to resolve them.     

Operator competence and capacity - Lessons from the Montara blowout

The blowout of the Montara H1 well in the Timor Sea off the northwest coast of Australia in August 2009 was the first such incident in Australian offshore waters for 25 years. This article seeks to draw lessons for management of complex hazardous activities from these events by analysing critical decisions regarding well control barriers. Concepts such as trial and error learning, sensemaking and the need for multiple barriers are used to demonstrate why the organisation was blind to the developing problems and hence why lack of technical competence alone is not sufficient to explain the events that occurred. Three organisational improvements are proposed - providing active supervision, improved technical integrity assurance and better use of risk assessment. The article concludes with an appeal for changes in regulatory policy regarding safety to include organisational issues in addition to the traditional technical focus.     

Improving dialogue among researchers,local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North

Ambio - The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic...     

Biological invasions: recommendations for U.S. policy and management.

The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost-effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive-species management.