基于BP神经网络的矿车运行时矿井摩擦阻力的预测*

为了快速有效地确定矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时矿井摩擦阻力的变化情况,克服模拟软件计算量和现场实测工作量大的问题,以巷道风流速度、矿车运行速度、阻塞比、矿车长度4个矿车运行时巷道摩擦阻力的影响因素作为切入点,采用动网格技术模拟得到矿车在巷道内运行时有关矿井摩擦阻力的数据,以此为样本构建基于BP神经网络的矿井摩擦阻力预测模型,运用MATLAB软件进行网络训练,并将BP神经网络预测值与FLUENT模拟值进行对比。研究结果表明:BP神经网络结构比较简单,能以较快速度收敛,预测值与模拟值最大误差在7%以内,该神经网络模型用于求解矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时摩擦阻力的变化情况是可行的。     

壳体缓释技术对带壳装药慢速烤燃反应烈度的缓解作用研究*

为了研究2种典型壳体缓释技术对弹药慢速烤燃响应烈度的缓解作用,基于试验条件分别建立无缓释设计、侧壁加工应力槽和端盖加工泄压孔的带壳PBX装药慢速烤燃仿真模型,提出使用热分解反应动力学模型和燃烧反应模型模拟计算不同约束条件下带壳PBX装药从开始加热发生热分解反应到点火燃烧以及炸药与壳体耦合作用的烤燃过程的计算方法。研究结果表明:通过侧壁加工应力槽以及端盖加工泄压孔的缓释结构设计,可以有效地降低壳体破裂时炸药内部的压力及反应度,以达到缓解反应烈度的目的。     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.     

贵州百花湖消落区土壤磷赋存形态初步研究

应用磷形态标准测试程序(SMT)对百花湖(水库)消落区土壤磷赋存形态进行了分级测定,分析了各形态磷之间与样品理化性质如有机质、pH、总氮和含水率的相关性。结果表明,百花湖消落区1区全磷含量平均为1239.9mg/kg,2区为1097.4mg/kg,3区为1041.5mg/kg;各形态磷中有机磷占全磷的百分比1区为58.7%,2区为55.1%,3区降至54.7%;消落带土壤中的磷以有机磷为主,无机磷为辅。铁铝结合态磷则是无机磷的主要组分,其中1区为77.1%,2区为66.7%,3区为61.4%;全磷、有机磷和铁铝结合态磷含量的总体变化趋势为1区>2区>3区;而钙结合态磷含量却呈现出3区>2区>1区。有机磷与全磷显著性相关,是土壤中磷素增加的主要因素;无机磷与铁铝结合态磷和钙结合态磷显著性相关,二者的增加和减少对无机磷的含量具有显著影响;全磷与有机质、酸碱性显著相关;有机磷与有机质,钙结合态磷与酸碱性之间均呈现出显著性相关,表明土壤的有机质和酸碱性影响磷的含量和分布。     

西江溶解有机碳的输送对典型洪水过程的响应

对2005年6月西江干流出现特大洪水期间及其前后的溶解有机碳(DOC)进行连续采样分析.结果表明,DOC浓度对流量变化的响应不敏感(n=43,R2=0.23,p＞0.05),尽管流量有6～7倍的变化,但DOC浓度的变化不到30%.洪水前夕、洪水期间及洪水过后DOC平均浓度逐渐降低,且洪水过后西江下游各个采样点的DOC浓度明显低于洪水前夕.DOC的输出量主要受地表径流深度的影响,二者之间存在着显著的线性相关关系.DOC荷载通量与流量密切相关,通过建立二者之间的线性回归方程可以计算出DOC的输出量,洪水期间DOC的输出量为4.5×1010g.     

Geostatistical analysis and risk assessment on soil total nitrogen and total soil phosphorus in the Dongting Lake plain area, China

Nonpoint-source pollution and water body eutrophication have become increasing concerns for scientists and policymakers. Nitrogen and phosphorus affect environmental pollution, especially lake eutrophication. To assess the environmental risk of soil total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) pollution, a typical ecological unit of Dongting Lake plain was selected as the experimental site. To verify the stationary of the data, a moving windows technique was adopted. Our results showed that Box-Cox transformation achieved normality in the data set and dampened the effect of outliers. The best theoretical model for semivariogram of TN and TP was a spherical model. The ordinary kriging estimates of TN and TP concentrations were mapped. The integrative comparisons of semivariogram parameters with different trends to the kriging prediction errors of TN and TP indicated that the two-order trend is preferable. Kriging SDs provided valuable information that will increase the accuracy of TN and TP mapping. The probability kriging method is useful to assess the risk of N and P pollution by providing the conditional probability of N and P concentrations exceeding the threshold concentrations of 3.2 and 1.05 g/kg, respectively. The probability distribution of TN and TP at different levels will be helpful to conduct risk assessment, optimize fertilization, and control the pollution of N and P.     

Water Hyacinth in China: A Sustainability Science-Based Management Framework

The invasion of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) has resulted in enormous ecological and economic consequences worldwide. Although the spread of this weed in Africa, Australia, and North America has been well documented, its invasion in China is yet to be fully documented. Here we report that since its introduction about seven decades ago, water hyacinth has infested many water bodies across almost half of China’s territory, causing a decline of native biodiversity, alteration of ecosystem services, deterioration of aquatic environments, and spread of diseases affecting human health. Water hyacinth infestations have also led to enormous economic losses in China by impeding water flows, paralyzing navigation, and damaging irrigation and hydroelectricity facilities. To effectively control the rampage of water hyacinth in China, we propose a sustainability science-based management framework that explicitly incorporates principles from landscape ecology and Integrated Pest Management. This framework emphasizes multiple-scale long-term monitoring and research, integration among different control techniques, combination of control with utilization, and landscape-level adaptive management. Sustainability science represents a new, transdisciplinary paradigm that integrates scientific research, technological innovation, and socioeconomic development of particular regions. Our proposed management framework is aimed to broaden the currently dominant biological control-centered view in China and to illustrate how sustainability science can be used to guide the research and management of water hyacinth.     

中型城市发展循环经济研究初探

以山东沿海城市日照为例,从转变发展思路、实践科学发展观,破解发展瓶颈、促进经济社会可持续发展,保持资源环境优势、增强区域持续竞争力三个方面分析了日照市发展循环经济的必要性和重要性。提出抓好“小循环”,构筑循环经济微观基础;搞好“中循环”,构筑循环经济示范基地;推进“大循环”,努力建设循环型社会是在当前中小城市经济欠发达、面临环境保护和发展经济双重压力下,实现经济社会又快又好发展的一条好路。     

气候变化和人类活动对黄河三角洲植被动态变化的影响

黄河三角洲是我国暖温带最完整、面积最大的湿地生态系统,其植被变化对于黄河三角洲生态功能和生态安全具有重要意义.本研究基于植被覆盖度(fractional vegetation cover,FVC)、叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)、净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)3个生态参数,分析了2000-2017年黄河三角洲地区植被的动态变化,并以NPP为指标量化分析了气候变化和人类活动对植被生产力的贡献.研究发现,2000-2017年黄河三角洲FVC(Slope=0.004,p<0.05)、LAI(Slope=0.011,p<0.05)、NPP(Slope=3.54 g·m-2·a-1,p<0.01)呈显著增加趋势,说明2000-2017年黄河三角洲植被生长状况趋好、植被生产力提高.气温、降水和太阳总辐射对植被NPP变化的贡献分别为0.006、0.81、-0.03g·m-2·a-1,即降水对植被NPP变化的贡献最大,这主要是因为黄河三角洲的主要土地利用类型为耕地,受降水影响大,当地土壤具有盐碱化风险,降水可以补充淡水资...     

通过屋顶暴露方法模拟聚碳酸酯微塑料在长江水样的长期老化行为

由于较低的自然老化速率,微塑料在实际水体长期户外暴露过程中老化行为的数据仍较缺乏.通过聚碳酸酯（Polycarbonate,PC）微塑料在长江表层水样的18个月户外暴露试验以揭示自然老化过程对微塑料表面特征及对金属离子(Cr⁶⁺和Co²⁺)吸附行为的重要影响.结果显示,户外暴露改变了PC微塑料的理化性质,包括表面开裂、粒径降低、亲水性和熔点增加以及表面氧化（产生羰基和羟基）.同时,户外老化过程明显影响微塑料对金属离子的吸附行为.原始和低老化程度PC对金属离子的吸附主要通过物理作用控制,而高老化程度微塑料由于产生含氧功能团对金属离子的吸附主要由化学过程如络合和共价键等作用控制.并且,不同老化程度PC微塑料对Cr⁶⁺和Co²⁺的吸附性能不同.对于Cr⁶⁺,PC的吸附性能随其老化程度增加呈先升高后降低的趋势,然而对于Co²⁺,平衡吸附性能随老化程度增加呈增加的趋势.户外老化过程产生含氧官能团、破碎和开裂以及生物膜可能是影响吸附性能的主要因素.本研究证实了长期户外...