Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad2

Richards, R. Peter, Ibrahim Alameddine, J. David Allan, David B. Baker, Nathan S. Bosch, Remegio Confesor, Joseph V. DePinto, David M. Dolan, Jeffrey M. Reutter, and Donald Scavia, 2012. Discussion –“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐10. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12006 Abstract: Results from the Upper Midwest Major River Basin (MRB3) SPARROW model and underlying Fluxmaster load estimates were compared with detailed data available in the Lake Erie and Ohio River watersheds. Fluxmaster and SPARROW estimates of tributary loads tend to be biased low for total phosphorus and high for total nitrogen. These and other limitations of the application led to an overestimation of the relative contribution of point sources vs. nonpoint sources of phosphorus to eutrophication conditions in Lake Erie, when compared with direct estimates for data‐rich Ohio tributaries. These limitations include the use of a decade‐old reference point (2002), lack of modeling of dissolved phosphorus, lack of inclusion of inputs from the Canadian Lake Erie watersheds and from Lake Huron, and the choice to summarize results for the entire United States Lake Erie watershed, as opposed to the key Western and Central Basin watersheds that drive Lake Erie’s eutrophication processes. Although the MRB3 SPARROW model helps to meet a critical need by modeling unmonitored watersheds and ranking rivers by their estimated relative contributions, we recommend caution in use of the MRB3 SPARRROW model for Lake Erie management, and argue that the management of agricultural nonpoint sources should continue to be the primary focus for the Western and Central Basins of Lake Erie.     

Hydrobiogeochemical Controls on Riparian Nutrient and Greenhouse Gas Dynamics: 10 Years Post‐Restoration

Little is known about the impact of agricultural legacy on subsurface biogeochemical processes in the years following restoration of riparian wetlands (WLs). More knowledge is also needed on the relative importance of seasons, precipitation events, and inputs of water and nutrients driving nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), sulfur (S), and greenhouse gas (GHG) (N₂O, CO₂, CH₄) dynamics in these systems. This investigation of a riparian zone comprising a restored WL area and a nonrestored well‐drained alluvium (AL) area in the United States Midwest revealed that despite successful hydrological restoration a decade earlier, biogeochemical conditions in the WL area remained less anoxic than in natural WLs, and not significantly different from those in the AL area. No significant differences in N, P, S, and C compound concentrations or fluxes were observed between the AL and WL areas. Over the duration of the study, nitrate (NO₃^?) and soluble reactive phosphorus appeared to be primarily driven by hillslope contributions. Ammonium (NH₄⁺), sulfate (SO₄^2?), and CO₂ responded strongly to seasonal changes in biogeochemical conditions in the riparian zone, while N₂O and CH₄ fluxes were most influenced by large rewetting events. Overall, our results challenge overly simplistic assumptions derived from direct interpretation of redox thermodynamics, and show complex patterns of solutes and GHGs at the riparian zone scale.     

USING FIELD SCALE MODELS TO PREDICT PEAK FLOWS ON AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for generating storm hydrographs at a watershed scale based on daily runoff estimates from a field scale model. The methodology was evaluated on a small agricultural watershed using the ADAPT field scale process model. A comparison of observed and predicted peak flows for 11 of the largest events that occurred in a three year period gave r² values of 0.84, 0.82, and 0.81 when the watershed was subdivided into 1, 5, and 10 sub watersheds. However, all other statistical measures improved when the watershed was subdivided into at least five sub watersheds. Guidelines need to be developed on the use of the procedure but it first needs to be evaluated on several watersheds that exhibit a range in sizes, land uses, slopes, and soil properties.     

Book reviews

Deregulation in the European Union: environmental perspectives. U. Collier (Ed.), 1998, London, Routledge, ISBN 0 415 15694 7, £47.50 (hbk)

Protecting the European Environment: enforcing EC environmental law. H. Somsen (Ed.), 1996, London, Blackstone Press, ISBN 185 431 6044, £19.95

Green Parties and Politics in the European Union. Elizabeth Bomberg, 1998, London, Routledge, ISBN 0 415102 650, £15.99 (pbk)

British Environmental Policy and Europe. Philip Lowe & Stephen Ward (Eds), 1998, London, Routledge, ISBN 0 415155 010, £16.99 (pbk)

Wolf in the Garden: the land rights movement and the new environmental debate. Philip D. Brick & R. McGreggor Cawley (Eds), 1996, Lanham, MD, Rowman & Littlefield, ISBN 08476 8184 X, US$67.50 (hbk) ISBN 08476 8185 8, US$24.95 (pbk)

Fresh Water. E. C. Pielou, 1998, Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, ISBN 0 226 66815 0, US$24/£19.25 (hbk)

Environment and Politics. Timothy Doyle & Doug McEachern, 1998, London, Routledge, ISBN 0415 14776, £10.99

Eat Your Genes: how genetically modified food is entering our diet. S. Nottingham, 1998, London, Zed Books, ISBN 1 85649 577 9, £32.95 (hbk) ISBN 1 85649 578 7, £11.95 (pbk)

Working for Better Environmental Performance in SMEs. PACTE programme of the European Commission, 1997, Project of Berlin, Bristol, Copenhagen and Vienna¹ (no charge)

Love Canal, the Story Continues. Lois Marie Gibbs, 1998, Gabriola Island, BC, New Society Publishers, ISBN 0 86571 382 0, US$16.95/Can$19.95 (pbk)