Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

Do predators control prey species abundance? An experimental test with brown treesnakes on Guam

The effect of predators on the abundance of prey species is a topic of ongoing debate in ecology; the effect of snake predators on their prey has been less debated, as there exists a general consensus that snakes do not negatively influence the abundance of their prey. However, this viewpoint has not been adequately tested. We quantified the effect of brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) predation on the abundance and size of lizards on Guam by contrasting lizards in two 1-ha treatment plots of secondary forest from which snakes had been removed and excluded vs. two 1-ha control plots in which snakes were monitored but not removed or excluded. We removed resident snakes from the treatment plots with snake traps and hand capture, and snake immigration into these plots was precluded by electrified snake barriers. Lizards were sampled in all plots quarterly for a year following snake elimination in the treatment plots. Following the completion of this experiment, we used total removal sampling to census lizards on a 100-m2 subsample of each plot. Results of systematic lizard population monitoring before and after snake removal suggest that the abundance of the skink, Carlia ailanpalai, increased substantially and the abundance of two species of gekkonids, Lepidodactylus lugubris and Hemidactylus frenatus, also increased on snake-free plots. No treatment effect was observed for the skink Emoia caeruleocauda. Mean snout-vent length of all lizard species only increased following snake removal in the treatment plots. The general increase in prey density and mean size was unexpected in light of the literature consensus that snakes do not control the abundance of their prey species. Our findings show that, at least where alternate predators are lacking, snakes may indeed affect prey populations.     

Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

Flux capacities and acclimation costs in Trichodesmium from the Gulf of Mexico

Phytoplankton function and acclimation are driven by catalytic protein complexes that mediate key physiological transformations, including generation of photosynthetic ATP and reductant, and carbon and nitrogen fixation. Quantitation of capacities for these processes allows estimation of rates for key ecosystem processes, and identification of factors limiting primary productivity. We herein present molar quantitations of PSI, PSII, ATP synthase, RuBisCO and the Fe protein of nitrogenase of Trichodesmium collected from the Gulf of Mexico, in comparison to determinations for a range of cyanobacteria growing in culture. Using these measurements, estimates were generated for Trichodesmium capacities for carbon fixation of 1–3.4 g C g chl a ⁻¹ h⁻¹ and nitrogen fixation of 0.06–0.17 g N g chl a ⁻¹ h⁻¹, with diel variations in capacities. ATP synthase levels show that ATP synthesis capacity is sufficient to support these levels of carbon and nitrogen fixation, and that ATP synthase levels change over the day in accordance with the ATP demands of nitrogenase and RuBisCO activity. Levels of measured complexes indicate that Trichodesmium manifests n-type diel light acclimation through rapid changes in RuBisCO:PSII, supported by significant investment of cellular nitrogen. The plasticity in the levels and stoichiometry of these core complexes show that changes in the abundance of core protein complexes are an important component of acclimation and regulation of metabolic function by Trichodesmium populations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO₂ exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z.     

Laboratory and field evaluation of real-time and near real-time PM2.5 smoke monitors

ABSTRACT

Increases in large wildfire frequency and intensity and a longer fire season in the western United States are resulting in a significant increase in air pollution, including concentrations of PM_2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) that pose significant health risks to nearby communities. During wildfires, government agencies monitor PM_2.5 mass concentrations providing information and actions needed to protect affected communities; this requires continuously measuring instruments. This study assessed the performance of seven candidate instruments: (1) Met One Environmental beta attenuation monitor (EBAM), (2) Met One ES model 642 (ES642), (3) Grimm Environmental Dust Monitor 164 (EDM), (4) Thermo ADR 1500 (ADR), (5) TSI DRX model 8543 (DRX), (6) Dylos 1700 (Dylos), and (7) Purple Air II (PA-II) in comparison with a BAM 1020 (BAM) reference instrument. With the exception of the EBAM, all candidates use light scattering to determine PM_2.5 mass concentrations. Our comparison study included environmental chamber and field components, with two of each candidate instrument operating next to the reference instrument. The chamber component involved 6 days of comparisons for biomass combustion emissions. The field component involved operating all instruments in an air monitoring station for 39.5 days with hourly average relative humidity (RH) ranging from 19% to 98%. Goals were to assess instrument precision and accuracy and effects of RH, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC) concentrations. All replicate candidate instruments showed high hourly correlations (R² ≥ 0.80) and higher daily average correlations (R² ≥ 0.90), where all instruments correlated well (R² ≥ 0.80) with the reference. The DRX and Purple Air overestimated PM_2.5 mass concentrations by a factor of ~two. Differences between candidates and reference were more pronounced at higher PM_2.5 concentrations. All optical instruments were affected by high RH and by the EC/OC ratio. Equations to convert candidate instruments data to FEM BAM type data are provided to enhance the usability of data from candidate instruments.

Implications: This study tested the performance of seven candidate PM_2.5 mass concentration measuring instruments in two settings - environmental chamber and field. The instruments were tested to determine their suitability for use during biomass combustion events and the effects of RH, PM mass concentrations, and concentrations of EC and OC on their performance. The accuracy and precision of each monitor and effect of RH, PM concentration, EC and OC concentrations are varied. The data show that most of these candidate instruments are suitable for measuring PM_2.5 concentration during biomass combustions with a proper correction factor for each instrument type.     

Catalyzing sustainable fisheries management through behavior change interventions

Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized.     

Estimating the elasticity of substitution between restricted and unrestricted inputs in a regulated fishery: A probit approach

Catch, effort, vessel, and skipper characteristic data for a sample of boats involved in the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery in the 1983/1984 season are used to estimate a fishing effort production function nested in a Cobb-Douglas fishery production function. The initial effort function is translog but tests suggest that the CES form cannot be rejected. The vessel's choice of fishing ground is modeled by a probit equation, the output from which is included in the OLS estimation of the production function. The elasticity of substitution between the inputs which are restricted by regulation and the other inputs is of particular interest as it determines whether input restriction is an efficient form of regulation for the fishery. The results suggest a value significantly less than unity.