Multiple source spatial cluster detection via multi-criteria analysis

Multiple data sources are essential to provide reliable information regarding the emergence of potential health threats, compared to single source methods. Spatial Scan Statistics have been adapted to analyze multivariate data sources, but only ad hoc procedures have been devised to address the problem of selecting the most likely cluster and computing its significance. In this work, information from multiple data sources of disease surveillance is incorporated to achieve more coherent spatial cluster detection using tools from multi-criteria analysis. The best cluster solutions are found by maximizing two objective functions simultaneously, based on the concept of dominance. To evaluate the statistical significance of solutions, a statistical approach based on the concept of attainment function is used. The multi-criteria approach has several advantages: the representation of the evaluation function for each data source is clear, and does not suffer from an artificial, and possibly confusing mixture with the other data source evaluations; it is possible to attribute, in a rigorous way, the statistical significance of each candidate cluster; and it is possible to analyze and pick-up the best cluster solutions, as given naturally by the non-dominated set. The methodology is illustrated with real datasets.     

个人乘用车用可替代燃料与我国未来的选择

个人乘用车排放量占道路交通运输二氧化碳(CO2)排放量的三分之一。因此,逐步实现其燃料由传统石化燃料汽柴油向新能源转变是交通运输行业低碳减排和绿色发展的重要抓手之一。本文对当前可供个人乘用车使用的4大类新能源即生物燃油、燃料乙醇、氢和电的属性,特别是其CO2减排效果和使用成本进行了分析和对比,并对新能源加注(充电)设施在欧盟和美国的布局战略和实施成果进行了介绍。结合欧美的实践和中国的实际,本文提出了未来个人乘用车用可替代燃油布局的建设,建议我国直接从传统石化汽油跨越至氢和/或电,并将其作为未来个人乘用车的燃料。     

P2P防污染机制的研究

文件污染是当前P2P文件共享系统普遍存在的问题,其中用户行为是导致污染的重要因素.在考察用户行为的基础上,建立了一个污染文件传播模型,描述了用户的污染意识、共享倾向等因素对污染传播的影响,并据此提出了相应的反污染机制.仿真实验表明,该机制能够有效地控制P2P文件共享系统中污染文件的传播.图6,表12.     

利用QSAR模型探讨分类条件下金属离子性质与酵母吸附容量之间的关系

在金属离子分类基础上(按金属离子的软硬性质),以啤酒工业废酵母对10种金属离子(Pb2 ,Ag ,Cr3 ,Cu2 ,Zn2 ,Cd2 ,Co2 ,Sr2 ,Ni2 、or Cs )的Langmuir理论饱和吸附容量qmax为QSAR(Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships)模型的活性参数,以金属离子的22种物理化学性质作为QSAR模型的结构参数,利用QSAR方法建立了分类条件下离子性质与酵母生物吸附容量之间的定量关系.金属的离子性质与吸附容量之间的线性回归分析结果表明,对金属离子进行适当分类可以改善拟合效果对于含有软离子的金属离子,共价指数X2mr是22种变量中预测效果最好的离子性质.离子的X2mr数值越大,离子与细胞的共价结合程度越高,吸附量越大.对于不含软离子的金属离子,极化力Z2/r、第一水解常数|log KOH|和电离势IP是qmax预测中最有价值的3个离子结构参数.(似)极化力的多种表征形式Z/r,Z/r2,Z/AR2,Z/AR也可以用于预测qmax.但考虑了金属离子的价层电子数、离子有效电荷和离子半径的极化力参数Z*2/r,却难以解释酵母吸附金属离子的亲和力顺序.该研究为预测金属离子的生物吸附容量、研究重金属离子-微生物的相互作用提供了新的思路和方法     

Influence of environmental temperature and relative humidity on photocatalytic oxidation of toluene on activated carbon fibers coated TiO2

TiO₂ supported on active carbon fiber (TiO₂/ACF), an absorbable photocatalyst, is a new kind of material applied in air purification. In this paper, the influence of environmental temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) on the gas-solid adsorption of toluene and the photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) efficiency of adsorbed toluene on TiO₂/ACF were studied, and then, the purification capability of TiO₂/ACF was estimated. PCO results showed that although the PCO efficiency increased under high RH and T levels, the amount of adsorption of toluene decreased. Moreover, quantitative analysis results of intermediates indicated that more environmental risk emerged when PCO of toluene was carried out at higher environmental T and RH levels because more toxic intermediates would be accumulated on the TiO₂/ACF. So, it is significant to control the environmental T and RH conditions in the application of the PCO technique. T = 25°C and RH530% is the optimal condition for purifying toluene in our experimental system. __________ Translated from Urban Environment & Urban Ecology, 2007, 20(5): 10–13 [译自: 城市环境与城市生态]     

规划方案下清洁发展机制介绍与评价

规划方案下清洁发展机制（PCDM）,作为完善现有清洁发展机制（CDM）而提出。PCDM通过形成规模效益,推动社会向低碳经济转型,并进一步为发展中国家参与CDM提供机会,PCDM的改进最突出的体现于对技术转让的设计上。因此,本文在简要介绍PCDM的基础上,对PCDM分析评价。提出如何选择适合开发PCDM领域,并指出PCDM在技术引进中的作用。     

养殖废水中9种大环内酯及林可酰胺类抗生素的同时测定及分析方法研究

采用固相萃取-超高效液相色谱三重四极杆质谱联用法,建立了同时测定养殖废水中9种大环内酯及林可酰胺类抗生素的方法,并对样品pH值、保存时间、洗脱溶剂、上样流速及过滤材质等进行了优化。测定结果表明,pH值为6,过滤材质为聚丙烯（GHP）,上样速度为5 mL/min时,9种抗生素的加标回收率最优,为71.4%～126%,相对标准偏差最小,为2.4%～7.1%,标准曲线的线性最好,相关系数为0.998 5～0.999 5,检出限为0.78～1.22 ng/L。该方法灵敏度高、检出限低、测定结果准确,能够广泛应用于养殖废水中大环内酯及林可酰胺类抗生素残留量的监测分析。     

基于动态因子分析法的四川省旅游业竞争力实证分析

运用STATA统计分析工具,将动态因子分析法应用到旅游业竞争力研究中,借助该方法从纵向和横向分析四川省旅游业竞争力情况,通过分析,重在了解四川省旅游业的发展变化及在全国的地位,为其今后制定有效的旅游业发展战略提供参考。结果表明：运用动态因子分析评价四川省旅游业竞争力客观可行,结果较切合实际。从横向来看,四川省旅游业竞争力在全国处于上游水平,说明综合实力较强;从纵向来看,2006～2010年四川省旅游业竞争力发生明显变化,主要是由于2008年汶川地震造成的影响。进一步提出四川省应注重从5个方面提升旅游业竞争力,即社会经济环境、旅游接待能力和市场、旅游资源、技术人才和生态环境     

Co-benefits and additionality of the clean development mechanism: An empirical analysis

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows industrialized countries to comply with the Kyoto Protocol by using carbon offsets from developing countries. There are two puzzles within this carbon market: additionality (the proposed activity would not have occurred in its absence) and co-benefits (the project has other environmental benefits besides climate mitigation). This paper proposes an econometric approach to evaluate the CDM effect on sulfur dioxide emission reductions and assess its additionality indirectly. Our empirical model is applied to China's emissions at the prefecture level. We found that the CDM does not have a statistically significant effect in lowering sulfur dioxide emissions. This result casts doubt on additionality of these CDM activities, that is, they would have happened anyway.     

中晚全新世六盘山流域土壤侵蚀的湖泊沉积记录

流域土壤侵蚀是流域水文—气候—生态的集中表现之一,对生态、环境等有着重大影响,重建过去流域土壤侵蚀强度对理解区域人类活动具有重要意义.本文选取黄土高原西南部高山湖泊——六盘山天池沉积岩芯为研究对象,基于XRF岩芯元素数据分析,结合可靠的AMS 14C年代序列,重建了中晚全新世以来六盘山流域土壤侵蚀强度变化记录.结果显示:5570?—?1600 cal BP,流域土壤侵蚀整体较强,侵蚀强度逐渐减弱,其主要受控于降水变化,也受植被覆盖等因素的影响;随着晚全新世气候逐渐变干,1600 cal BP之后的侵蚀强度整体弱于前一时期,此时段由于人类活动的显著影响,加剧了流域的土壤侵蚀.太阳辐射可能是研究区土壤侵蚀强度变化的初始驱动力,ENSO通过驱动亚洲季风变化影响区域降水,进而直接影响流域土壤侵蚀的强度变化.