Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model

Theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the genuine saving (GS) based on neoclassical economic theory to assess sustainable development (SD). However, only market prices and statistical national accounts have been used in empirical studies due to limited data availability. The data availability limits to measure GS only in the past and current, causing a wide gap with theoretical results. In this paper, we propose computing GS using an integrated assessment model (IAM) as connected to the mainframe model of macroeconomy. This enables us to use shadow prices, rather than market prices, obtained through an IAM, which ensures substantial consistency among variables. An example would be endogenous capital–output ratio and the rate of TFP. Also, our indicator of GS is more comprehensive in that they now account for various resources, environmental degradation, and land use. Our simulation results, with a particular focus on GS with population change (GSn) and with technological change as well (GSnt), show a sustainable future for up to the end of the century thanks to declining population in the latter half of the century and technological progress, although GS without accounting for population and technology tend to be negative, driven by, among others, capital depreciation and net primary productivity degraded by land use.     

Recent sedimentary environment of coastal lagoon in southwestern Japan: evidence from major and trace elements

A geochemical study of the bottom sediments of Lake Shinji and the River Ohashi in southwestern Japan was carried out to determine their elemental compositions and to evaluate the pollution status of lake sediments by employing enrichment factor (EF), pollution load index (PLI), and geoaccumulation index (I _geo). Present-day water quality was also assessed. Results showed that the water quality of Lake Shinji contrasts slightly between the upper and lower parts. The chemical composition of the sediments, as measured by X-ray fluorescence, included major and trace elements and total sulfur (TS). Average abundances of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cr in the Shinji sediments were 10, 29, 143, 27, 19, and 54 ppm, respectively, compared to 6, 18, 57, 16, 10, and 37 ppm in the river sediments. Based on the EF, PLI, and I _geo, the lake sediments are moderately to strongly polluted with respect to As, moderately polluted with Pb, Zn, and Cr, and unpolluted with Cu and Ni. The high EF and I _geo for As, Pb, and Zn in the lake sediments indicate that metal concentration has occurred in Shinji. Increases in the abundances of these metals are likely related to the fine-grained nature of the sediments, reducing conditions of the bottom sediments, enrichment in organic matter, and possibly a minor contribution from non-point anthropogenic sources. Trace metal contents are strongly correlated with Fe₂O₃ and TS, suggesting that Fe oxides and sulfides play a role in controlling abundances in the investigated areas.     

Synthesis of novel polymer type sulfoxide solid phase combined with the porogen imprinting for enabling selective separation of polychlorinated biphenyls

We developed a novel polymer type sulfoxide-modified solid phase enabling to achieve selective separation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from insulation oil. In this study, firstly we prepared base-polymer based on the concept of the molecular imprinting to capture PCBs in selectively, then, the sulfoxide groups were modified on the pore surface of base-polymers by changing preparation methods. As results of liquid chromatographic analyses for the polymers as columns, the base-polymer prepared by xylene as a porogenic solvent showed selective retention ability for chlorinated aromatic compounds by the porogen imprinting effect. Additionally, the polymer-type sulfoxide solid phases showed highly retention ability for PCBs by increasing amount of introduced sulfoxide groups. Consequently, the results of separation of PCBs comparing to insulation oil suggested that the prepared solid phase can be used for the selective separation of PCBs at the same level as a commercially available media utilized for the regulated method.     

Effects of vehicle impact velocity, vehicle front-end shapes on pedestrian injury risk

Objective: This study aimed at investigating the effects of vehicle impact velocity, vehicle front-end shape, and pedestrian size on injury risk to pedestrians in collisions with passenger vehicles with various frontal shapes. Method: A series of parametric studies was carried out using 2 total human model for safety (THUMS) pedestrian models (177 and 165?cm) and 4 vehicle finite element (FE) models with different front-end shapes (medium-size sedan, minicar, one-box vehicle, and sport utility vehicle [SUV]). The effects of the impact velocity on pedestrian injury risk were analyzed at velocities of 20, 30, 40, and 50?km/h. The dynamic response of the pedestrian was investigated, and the injury risk to the head, chest, pelvis, and lower extremities was compared in terms of the injury parameters head injury criteria (HIC), chest deflection, and von Mises stress distribution of the rib cage, pelvis force, and bending moment diagram of the lower extremities. Result: Vehicle impact velocity has the most significant influence on injury severity for adult pedestrians. All injury parameters can be reduced in severity by decreasing vehicle impact velocities. The head and lower extremities are at greater risk of injury in medium-size sedan and SUV collisions. The chest injury risk was particularly high in one-box vehicle impacts. The fracture risk of the pelvis was also high in one-box vehicle and SUV collisions. In minicar collisions, the injury risk was the smallest if the head did not make contact with the A-pillar. Conclusion: The vehicle impact velocity and vehicle front-end shape are 2 dominant factors that influence the pedestrian kinematics and injury severity. A significant reduction of all injuries can be achieved for all vehicle types when the vehicle impact velocity is less than 30?km/h. Vehicle designs consisting of a short front-end and a wide windshield area can protect pedestrians from fatalities. The results also could be valuable in the design of a pedestrian-friendly vehicle front-end shape. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention for the following free supplemental resource: Head impact conditions and injury parameters in four-type vehicle collisions and validation result of the finite element model of one-box vehicle and minicar. ].     

Measuring marginal willingness to pay using conjoint analysis and developing benefit transfer functions in various Asian cities

We need a consistent methodology to measure the co-benefits of climate change mitigation across Asian countries. This study chose a strategy of modifying the Japan-specific life-cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME) for wider application across countries. LIME has two dimensions. First, it is an environmental science that links the cause-and-effect chain. Second, it is an environmental valuation that weighs four endpoint damages in monetary terms through a conjoint analysis that is derived from an Internet-based questionnaire survey. This article describes the modification of the methodology for application of the conjoint analysis to weigh environmental impacts. We approached the investigation as follows. First, we conducted Internet surveys to measure marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP). We used a sample of 112 respondents in their 20 s to 40 s, divided equally between men and women, in 11 cities across China, India, and Southeast Asia. The results obtained showed clear statistical significance and were comparable across the cities. Second, we attempted to develop functions (called benefit transfer functions) to simplify the measured MWTP in order to apply it across different Asian countries. The functions were derived through a stepwise meta-analytic method, a type of multiple regression analysis whose independent variable was MWTP and dependent variables were attributes of both respondents and surveyed cities. The functions showed that coal consumption and percentage of nature reserve were dependent variables. Then, the MWTPs estimated from the functions were compared with the measured MWTP for transfer error, which is calculated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value divided by the latter. The transfer error was below 50% in about 90% of the 44 results (a combination of four endpoints and 11 cities), implying that the developed functions were statistically significant.     

Workers select mates for queens: a possible mechanism of gene flow restriction between supercolonies of the invasive Argentine ant

Some invasive ants form large networks of mutually non-aggressive nests, i.e., supercolonies. The Argentine ant Linepithema humile forms much larger supercolonies in introduced ranges than in its native range. In both cases, it has been shown that little gene flow occurs between supercolonies of this species, though the mechanism of gene flow restriction is unknown. In this species, queens do not undertake nuptial flight, and males have to travel to foreign nests and cope with workers before gaining access to alien queens. In this study, we hypothesized that male Argentine ants receive interference from workers of alien supercolonies. To test this hypothesis, we conducted behavioral and chemical experiments using ants from two supercolonies in Japan. Workers attacked males from alien supercolonies but not those from their own supercolonies. The level of aggression against alien males was similar to that against alien workers. The frequency of severe aggression against alien males increased as the number of recipient workers increased. Cuticular hydrocarbon profiles, which serve as cues for nestmate recognition, of workers and males from the same supercolony were very similar. Workers are likely to distinguish alien males from males of their own supercolony using the profiles. It is predicted that males are subject to considerable aggression from workers when they intrude into the nests of alien supercolonies. This may be a mechanism underlying the restricted gene flow between supercolonies of Argentine ants. The Argentine ant may possess a distinctive reproductive system, where workers participate in selecting mates for their queens. We argue that the aggression of workers against alien males is a novel form of reproductive interference.     

Performance tests of newly developed adsorption/plasma combined system for decomposition of volatile organic compounds under continuous flow condition

The adsorption/plasma decomposition with the combination of adsorption honeycomb-sheets and a plasma element is a new technology for small-sized apparatuses to decompose volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at concentrations lower than about 100 ppm. The feasibility of the prototype adsorption/plasma decomposition apparatus was evaluated with the simulated exhausts containing one VOC component and with real exhausts from a painting booth and an adhesion factory. The apparatus decomposed VOCs e ectively at the painting booth exhaust but not always satisfactorily at the adhesion factory exhaust. The performance test results with real exhausts were discussed with respect to the concentration and discharge pattern of the exhausts and the basic properties of the system such as cooperation of adsorption and plasma reaction and the concentration dependence of the performance.     

Spatial distribution and source identification of wet deposition at remote EANET sites in Japan

Wet deposition of major ions was discussed from the viewpoint of its potential sources for six remote EANET sites in Japan (Rishiri, Happo, Oki, Ogasawara, Yusuhara, and Hedo) having sufficiently high data completeness during 2000–2004. The annual deposition for each site ranged from 12.1 to 46.6 meq m⁻² yr⁻¹ for nss-SO₄²⁻, from 5.0 to 21.9 meq m⁻² yr⁻¹ for NO₃⁻. The ranges of annual deposition of the two ions for the sites were lower than those for urban and rural sites in Japanese Acid Deposition Survey by Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and higher than those for global remote marine sites. Factor analysis was performed on log-transformed daily wet deposition of major ions for each site. The obtained two factors were interpreted as (1) acid and soil source (or acid source for some sites), and (2) sea-salt source for all the sites. This indicates that wet deposition of ions over the remote areas in Japan has a similar structure in terms of types of sources. Factor scores of acid and soil source were relatively high during Kosa (Asian dust) events in spring in western Japan. Back-trajectories for high-deposition episodes of acid and soil source (or acid source) for the remote sites showed that episodic air masses frequently came from the northeastern area of Asian Continent in spring and winter, and from central China in summer and autumn. This indicates a large contribution of continental emissions to wet deposition of ions over the remote areas in Japan.