20世纪重大自然灾害评析

人类在科学技术上取得了辉煌成绩的同时,在认识自然和改造自然方面也得到了才识和新的认识,这一教训主要是来自自然灾害。根据收集到的全球自然灾害有关数据,对２０世纪全球主要自然灾害特征分布特点进行了分析,并对其成因提出了看法。     

Challenges in quantifying biosphere-atmosphere exchange of nitrogen species

Recent research in nitrogen exchange with the atmosphere has separated research communities according to N form. The integrated perspective needed to quantify the net effect of N on greenhouse-gas balance is being addressed by the NitroEurope Integrated Project (NEU). Recent advances have depended on improved methodologies, while ongoing challenges include gas-aerosol interactions, organic nitrogen and N(2) fluxes. The NEU strategy applies a 3-tier Flux Network together with a Manipulation Network of global-change experiments, linked by common protocols to facilitate model application. Substantial progress has been made in modelling N fluxes, especially for N(2)O, NO and bi-directional NH(3) exchange. Landscape analysis represents an emerging challenge to address the spatial interactions between farms, fields, ecosystems, catchments and air dispersion/deposition. European up-scaling of N fluxes is highly uncertain and a key priority is for better data on agricultural practices. Finally, attention is needed to develop N flux verification procedures to assess compliance with international protocols.     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

Re-emphasizing sustainable development — The concept of ‘Evolutionability’

The principle of ‘sustainable development’ is now 15-year-old. There are a lot of definitions and models for its explanation — ranging from ‘triangles’ and ‘prisms’ to ‘eggs’ — but still its sense is diffuse. Moreover, important aspects like equity are not sufficiently taken into account. The following article takes a critical look on ‘sustainable development’. It shows logical, systemic, philosophic and ethic reasons for the re-development of substantial parts of the principle of sustainability. Based on the proposed Principle of Good Heritage it provides a rough outline of a future Concept of Evolutionability, comprising a first tentative for a definition of ‘evolutionable development’, aiming at achieving a more appropriate and more workable mainstream view of sustainability.     

False-negative prenatal exclusion of Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome by measurement of fetal platelet count and size

The study of the fetal platelet count and size can, according to the literature, be used for the prenatal diagnosis of the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS). So far, no affected fetuses have been identified by this method. All pregnancies in which this method had been applied to resulted, as correctly predicted, in the birth of normal children. Here we report on a familial case of WAS where the haematological parameters failed to reveal the affected second child. Hence we assume that the platelet count and size of platelets remain normal in fetuses with WAS to the gestational age of 22 weeks and cannot be used for prenatal diagnosis.     

Mating success and fidelity to territories in a fallow deer lek: a female removal experiment

A lek is a clump of male territories that females visit only for mating; it is quite a rare mating system among mammals. As we wanted to investigate the role of past male mating success on their fidelity to lek territories, we displaced fallow deer females by a lek (Lek A), i.e. we removed the resources for rutting males. They moved to a new area followed by some of the territorial males (mobile males) where they established a new lek (Lek B). Other males (faithful males) stayed on Lek A. The former had lower mating success and dominance ranking in the early, undisturbed part of the rut. After disturbance, the MS of faithful males was much reduced, while that of mobile males was higher on Lek B than it had been on Lek A. We then disturbed Lek B. Females returned to Lek A, and the mating success of faithful males reverted to its original level. Past mating success was the main factor predicting whether a male was faithful or mobile. We illustrated for the first time the importance of past experience in promoting lek fidelity; this experiment gives an insight into the mechanisms leading to the traditional use of leks.     

Monitoring of heavy metal deposition in Northern Italy by moss analysis

A survey of heavy metal deposition in the mountainous territories of Northern Italy was carried out in 1995-96. Moss samples (mainly Hylocomium splendens) were collected in a dense network of sites (about 3.2 sites/1000 km(2)) and the data of metal concentrations in moss tissues were statistically correlated with environmental and climatic factors, as well as with bulk deposition of elements and elemental concentrations in the soil. Three main geographic patterns of metal concentration in mosses could be defined: (1) Fe, Ni, and Cr, all derived both by soil particulates and anthropogenic emissions connected with ferrous metal manufacturing, were mostly concentrated in Northwestern Italy; (2) Cu and Zn, as typical multi-source elements, showed rather high concentrations with little ranges of variation over the whole area and small peaks reflecting local source points; (3) Cd and Pb reflected long-distance transport and showed highest concentrations in the regions with highest precipitation, especially in the Eastern Alps.