Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

The National Vegetation Classification Standard applied to the remote sensing classification of two semiarid environments

The National Vegetation Classification Standard (NVCS) was implemented at two US National Park Service (NPS) sites in Texas, the Padre Island National Seashore (PINS) and the Lake Meredith National Recreation Area (LMNRA), to provide information for NPS oil and gas management plans. Because NVCS landcover classifications did not exist for these two areas prior to this study, we created landcover classes, through intensive ground and aerial reconnaissance, that characterized the general landscape features and at the same time complied with NVCS guidelines. The created landcover classes were useful for the resource management and were conducive to classification with optical remote sensing systems, such as the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). In the LMNRA, topographic elevation data were added to the TM data to reduce confusion between cliff, high plains, and forest classes. Classification accuracies (kappa statistics) of 89.9% (0.89) and 88.2% (0.87) in PINS and LMNRA, respectively, verified that the two NPS landholdings were adequately mapped with TM data. Improved sensor systems with higher spectral and spatial resolutions will ultimately refine the broad classes defined in this classification; however, the landcover classifications created in this study have already provided valuable information for the management of both NPS lands. Habitat information provided by the classifications has aided in the placement of inventory and monitoring plots, has assisted oil and gas operators by providing information on sensitive habitats, and has allowed park managers to better use resources when fighting wildland fires and in protecting visitors and the infrastructure of NPS lands.     

Exploring Environmental Data in a Highly Immersive Virtual Reality Environment

Geography inherently fills a 3D space and yet we struggle with displaying geography using, primarily, 2D display devices. Virtual environments offer a more realistically-dimensioned display space and this is being realized in the expanding area of research on 3D Geographic Information Systems (GISs). Traditionally, a GIS has only limited tools for statistical analysis, and 3D GIS research has concentrated on the visualization of the geographical terrain. Here we discuss linking multivariate statistical graphics to geography in the highly immersive C2 virtual reality environment at Iowa State University using mid-Atlantic streams data.     

Assessing potential bioavailability of metals in sediments: A proposed approach

Due to anthropogenic inputs, elevated concentrations of metals frequently occur in aquatic sediments. In order to make defensible estimates of the potential risk of metals in sediments and/or develop sediment quality criteria for metals, it is essential to identify that fraction of the total metal in the sediments that is bioavailable. Studies with a variety of benthic invertebrates indicate that interstitial (pore) water concentrations of metals correspond very well with the bioavailability of metals in test sediments. Many factors may influence pore water concentrations of metals; however, in anaerobic sediments a key phase controlling partitioning of several cationic metals (cadmium, nickel, lead, zinc, copper) into pore water is acid volatile sulfide (AVS). In this paper, we present an overview of the technical basis for predicting bioavailability of cationic metals to benthic organisms based on pore water metal concentrations and metal-AVS relationships. Included are discussions of the advantages and limitations of metal bioavailability predictions based on these parameters, relative both to site-specific assessments and the development of sediment quality criteria.     

Book reviews

The Economics of Art and Culture: An American Perspective

James Heilbrun & Charles M. Gray

New York, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 378 pp., £14.95 pb

Building Cities that Work

Edmund Fowler

Montreal & Kingston, McGill‐Queen's University Press, 1992, 315 pp.

Interactive Decision Making: The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

Liping Fang, Keith W. Hipel & D. Marc Kilgour

New York, Wiley, 1993, 221 pp., £49.50

The Politics of Nature: Explorations in Green Political Theory

Andrew Dobson & Paul Lucardie (Eds)

London, Routledge, 1993, 240 pp. + xv, £37.50

Urban Transport in Asia: An Operational Agenda for the 1990s, World Bank

Technical Paper No. 224

Peter Midgley

Washington, DC, The World Bank, 1994, 98 pp.

Landscape Ecology: Theory and Application, 2nd edition

Zev Naveh & Arthur Lieberman

New York, Springer‐Verlag, £34.50     

Toward an integrative approach of the industrial risk management process in France

Management in the field of environmental protection and risk prevention has evolved to the increasing participation of all stakeholders in the decision-making process. It certainly results from the development of the Information society and the global increase of knowledge of the population, combined with the concerns of the populations related to a sustainable development of our civilisation. Our ‘risk society’, following the big industrial disasters (Flixborough,Tchernobyl, Bhopal, Challenger, and more recently Toulouse), has also developed a cautious attitude towards the role of the expertise when it comes to assessing risks, along with a question of the ability of science to give definite answers.

This has lead in particular to the adoption of the Aarhus convention in 1998 and the evolution of several regulations in the developed countries. For example, in France the new law no. 2003–699 of 30 July 2003 about the ‘prevention of the technological and natural risks and to the compensation for the damages’ has introduced an important innovation into the process of technological risks prevention.

This law has enabled the involvement of the stakeholders in the decision-making process related to risk prevention and has urged the development of specific tools to deal with the complexity of risk management issues, in particular for those related to land-use planning.

As technical support to decision-makers in risk management from both public and private sectors, INERIS has played an important role for the evolution of the French risk management system.

This paper describes an analysis on the difficulty to control major accident hazards in an evolving context where the industrial systems becomes more and more complex and where the expectations of the civil society has increased. Then, the authors describe how an integrated vision for industrial risk management has emerged in France and is being implemented in a new law adopted after the Toulouse disaster.     

RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain‐gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive.     

Maintaining high-volume, low-pressure surface-coating regulatory compliance using the U.s. Environmental Protection Agency's data quality objectives process

To effectively reduce the environmental compliance costs associated with meeting specific requirements under the Aerospace Manufacturing and Rework Facility's National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants rule, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Data Quality Objective (DQO) process has been proposed as a suitable framework for developing a scientifically defensible surface compliance monitoring program. By estimating the variability associated with the air cap pressure of high- volume, low-pressure (HVLP) surface-coating spray equipment, the number of monitoring samples necessary for an affected facility to claim compliance with a desired statistical confidence level was established. Using data taken from the pilot test facility, the DQO process indicated that the mean of at least 21 HVLP air cap pressure samples taken over the compliance period must be < or = 10 pounds per square inch (psig) gauge for the facility to claim regulatory compliance with 99.99% statistical confidence. Fewer compliance samples could be taken, but that decision would lead to a commensurate reduction in the compliance confidence level. Implementation of the DQO-based compliance sampling plan eliminates the need for an affected facility to sample all regulated HVLP surface-coating processes while still maintaining a high level of compliance assurance.     

The effect of a campus-community environmental alcohol prevention initiative on student drinking and driving: results from the "a matter of degree" program evaluation

OBJECTIVE: Motor vehicle crashes involving alcohol are a major contributor to morbidity and mortality among college students in the United States. This study evaluates the effect on drinking and driving outcomes of the "A Matter of Degree" program, a campus-community coalition initiative to reduce college binge drinking. METHODS: We used a quasi-experimental longitudinal study design that compared student responses at 10 colleges participating in the program and students attending 32 similar colleges that did not participate in the program. We also divided the program sites into two groups of five according to their level of program implementation and compared each with the non-program colleges. We examined driving after any alcohol consumption and driving after five or more drinks among drinkers who drove one or more times a week per month and riding with a high or drunk driver among all students at these colleges beginning in 1997 through 2001. Outcomes were based on data collected from repeated cross-sectional surveys using the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study. Analyses were conducted using MLwiN multilevel statistical software. RESULTS: We found significant reductions in driving after drinking, driving after five or more drinks and riding with a high or drunk driver at the program colleges relative to the comparison colleges. Further analyses indicated that these reductions among the AMOD program colleges occurred at the sites with high program implementation relative to comparison sites, while no statistically significant change was noted at the program sites with low implementation. The program effect on the two drinking and driving outcomes appeared to be mediated by frequent binge drinking, while significant decline in the riding with an intoxicated driver outcome was not mediated by the individual's drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Campus-community based environmental alcohol prevention is a promising approach for reducing alcohol-impaired motor vehicle crashes among this population.