Risk homeostasis theory: A study of intrinsic compensation

Risk homeostasis theory (RHT) suggests that changes made to the intrinsic risk of environments are negated in one of three ways: behavioural adjustments within the environment, mode migration, and avoidance of the physical risk. To date, this three-way model of RHT has little empirical support, whilst research findings on RHT have at times been diametrically opposed. A reconciliation of apparently opposing findings might be possible by suggesting that extrinsic compensation fails to restore previously existing levels of actual risk in cases where behavioural adjustments within the environment are incapable of negating intrinsic risk changes. This paper reports a study in which behavioural adjustments within the physical risk-taking environment are capable of reconciling target with actual risk. The results provide positive support for RHT in the form of overcompensation for the intrinsic risk change on specific driver behaviours.     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Vegetative delineation of coastal salt marsh boundaries

Legislation mandating the protection of wetlands, combined with current pressures to convert them to other uses, emphasize the need to determine accurately a wetland-upland boundary We investigated six methods designed to establish such a boundary based on vegetation Each method was applied to a common data set obtained from 295 quadrats along 22 transects between marsh and upland areas in 13 intertidal saline wetlands in Oregon and Washington. The multiple occurrence, joint occurrence, and five percent methods required plant species to be classified as salt marsh, upland, and non-indicator, cluster and similarity methods required no initial classification Close agreement on wetland-upland boundaries determined by the six methods suggests that preclassification of plants and collection of plant cover data may not be necessary to determine the boundary     

A WATERSHED APPROACH TO ECOSYSTEM MONITORING IN DENALI NATIONAL PARK AND PRESERVE,ALASKA1

ABSTRACT: The National Park Service and the National Biological Service initiated research in Denali National Park and Preserve, a 2.4 million-hectare park in southcentral Alaska, to develop ecological monitoring protocols for national parks in the Arctic/Subarctic biogeographic area. We are focusing pilot studies on design questions, on scaling issues and regionalization, ecosystem structure and function, indicator selection and evaluation, and monitoring technologies. Rock Creek, a headwater stream near Denali headquarters, is the ecological scale for initial testing of a watershed ecosystem approach. Our conceptual model embraces principles of the hydrological cycle, hypotheses of global climate change, and biological interactions of organisms occupying intermediate, but poorly studied, positions in Alaskan food webs. The field approach includes hydrological and depositional considerations and a suite of integrated measures linking key aquatic and terrestrial biota, environmental variables, or defined ecological processes, in order to establish ecological conditions and detect, track, and understand mechanisms of environmental change. Our sampling activities include corresponding measures of physical, chemical, and biological attributes in four Rock Creek habitats believed characteristic of the greater system diversity of Denali. This paper gives examples of data sets, program integration and scaling, and research needs.     

Environmental education in the South Pacific: an evaluation of progress in three countries

Summary In this paper the formal environmental education being delivered in three countries in the South Pacific Region, Fiji (Melanesia), Kiribati (Micronesia) and Niue (Polynesia) is evaluated. The findings reveal that environmental education is at different stages of evolution in each of these countries. At present only Niue appears to deliver environmental education effectively when compared with models of good practice suggested in the literature. Some general recommendations are included for the improvement of environmental education in Fiji and Kiribati.Neil Taylor was until recently a Fellow in Science Education at the University of the South Pacific, PO Box 1168, Suva, Fiji. He is now a senior research student at the Centre for Mathematics and Science Education at Queensland University of Technology. Dr Teny Topalian has until very recently been the co-ordinator of the Public Marine Education Programme run as part of the Marine Studies Programme of the University of the South Pacific. She has now returned to her position as Assistant Professor in Natural Sciences and Biology at California State University, Long Beach, California, USA.     

TESTING FOR TREND IN LAKE AND GROUND WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined.     

HUMAN STABILITY IN A HIGH FLOOD HAZARD ZONE1

ABSTRACT: The delineation of high flood hazard zones within a flood plain is usually independent of the hydraulic parameters that constitute a life threatening situation. In order to define human instability in high hazard areas, a study was conducted to identify when an adult human could not stand or maneuver in a simulated flood flow. An analysis was performed on a rigid body monolith resulting in a toppling hazard envelope curve (velocity vs. depth). A 120 lb monolith was then constructed and tested to relate the actual flow velocity and depth at toppling to theory. A series of human subjects (90–201 Ibs) were placed in a recirculating flume and tested to determine the velocity and depth of flow that caused their instability. The test results determined that the product number, which is the product of the velocity and depth at toppling of the monolith, closely compared to the theoretical envelope curve. The monolith results represent the lower limit of human stability. Also, the product number appeared to be a predictor of human instability in flood flow. A relationship was developed to estimate the product number at which a human subject becomes unstable as a function of the height and weight of the subject.     

RED ALDER LEAF LITTER AND STREAMWATER QUALITY IN WESTERN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Streamside red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) stands are common in western Oregon, and they have been suspected of causing water quality problems in domestic supplies during autumn leaf fall. Studies in the Seaside municipal watershed showed potential water quality effects (particularly increased color) from alder leaves, but stream sampling during 1981–82 revealed no chronic problems. The few observed short-term increases in water color occurred near the onset of storm flows, which suggested a flushing of organic matter storage sites. An extended period of unusually low flows and high leaf fall are probably necessary to produce significant water quality problems in this stream system. Laboratory leaching of alder leaves in filtered stream water indicated a fairly constant release of colored organic matter over time, and running water leached this matter more efficiently than still water. Water color increased linearly with increasing leaf mass added to still water, and for a given leaf mass there appeared to be a limit to the amount of colored matter that could be removed in the first 48 hours of leaching. Other laboratory tests showed that ultraviolet absorbance (254 mm) may provide a reasonable estimate of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in systems dominated by alder leaf inputs.     

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990–1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.