Human Instability in Flood Flows1

Abstract: Loss of human stability in flood flows and consequent drowning are a high personal hazard. In this paper, we review past experimental work on human instability. The results of new experiments by the Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC) are also reported. These new results show that low depth/high velocity flood waters are more dangerous than suggested based on previous experimental work. It is discussed how human instability can be related to two physical mechanisms: moment instability (toppling) and friction instability (sliding). Comparison of the test results with these physical mechanisms suggests that the occurrence of instability in the tests by FHRC is related to friction instability. This mechanism appears to occur earlier than moment instability for the combination of shallow depth and high flow velocity. Those concerned to identify locations where high flood flows could be a threat to human life need to modify their hazard assessments accordingly.     

HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS OF HUMAN STABILITY IN A FLOOD1

ABSTRACT: Major loss of life can occur in a flood when people are toppled by floodwater currents. Three approximate mechanical models and two empirical models of the hydrodynamics of toppling are presented and calibrated to align with available experimental observations to assist the analysis of the risk of life loss. The mechanical models consider circular cylindrical, square cylindrical and cylindrical composite, heavy bodies assembled to represent a human immersed in a flow field and subject to drag and buoyancy forces. The models can account for the height and weight of the exposed persons, and the velocity and depth of the flow. The models are in good mutual agreement and, when calibrated, yield failure functions that can be used to calculate the probability of loss of stability.     

THE EFFECTS OF A MOVING RAINSTORM ON DIRECT RUNOFF PROPERTIES1

ABSTRACT: The effects of a moving rainstorm on flood runoff characteristics were investigated. A flood hydrograph simulation model called “FH-Model” and a natural watershed were used. A hypothetical rainstorm of 50 years recurrence interval, 75 mm depth, and 4 hours duration was used to show the effects of velocity and direction of the moving rainstorm on the runoff characteristics. Compared with an equivalent stationary rainstorm (ESRS), the peak flow caused by a rainstorm moving in a downstream direction with a speed equal to channel velocity, V, was 27.5 percent higher and the peak flow caused by the same rainstorm moving in an upstream direction was 21.7 percent smaller. These percentages reduced to 10.5 percent and 8.6 percent for storms moving downstream and upstream, respectively, at three times the channel velocity, 3V. There were negligible differences in the time of peak, T_p between runoff caused by storms moving downstream and runoff produced by ESRS. However, T_p for a storm moving upstream at V velocity was 82 percent higher than that produced by ESRS, but was reduced to 27 percent higher when the storm velocity was 3V.     

HYDRODYNAMIC CONTROL OF AN EMERGENT AQUATIC PLANT (SCIRPUS ACUTUS) IN OPEN CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT: Control of emergent aquatic plants such as tule (Scirpus acutus Muhl.; Bigel.) is of direct interest to managers of surface waters in Western North America. Where conditions of water velocity and depth occur that permit this and similar species to colonize and grow, their clonal habit may restrict, or even block, open channels within several seasons after their establishment. Fortunately, sufficient flow depth and velocity naturally prevent these plants from growing into and blocking channels. We investigated physical constraints for tule stem growth with the ultimate intent to apply this knowledge in rehabilitating 60 miles of the diverted Owens River in Eastern California, presently choked with emergent growth. Bending stress resulting from hydrodynamic drag on tule stems was found to induce lodging; permanent deformation and consequent loss of function. The depth-velocity envelope describing this process (at 95 percent confidence) is uD/d= 12.8 where u = average velocity acting upon the stem (m/s), D = local depth of flow (m), and d = tule stem diameter at the point of attachment (m). Maintaining a discharge or reconfiguring a channel so this critical depth-velocity-stem diameter envelope is exceeded (predictable using flow models) through the summer growing period should prevent encroachment into an active channel.     

Estimating Floodwater Depths from Flood Inundation Maps and Topography

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.     

REACH SCALE HYDRAULIC ASSESSMENT OF INSTREAM SALMONID HABITAT RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the use of a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model (River2D) for an assessment of the effects of instream large woody debris and rock groyne habitat structures. The bathymetry of a study reach (a side channel of the Chilliwack River located in southwestern British Columbia) was surveyed after the installation of 11 instream restoration structures. A digital elevation model was developed and used with a hydrodynamic model to predict local velocity, depth, scour, and habitat characteristics. The channel was resurveyed after the fall high‐flow season during which a bankfull event occurred. Pre‐flood and post‐flood bathymetry pool distributions were compared. Measured scour was compared to predicted shear and pre‐flood and post‐flood fish habitat indices for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and steelhead trout (O. mykiss) were compared. Two‐dimensional flow model velocity and depth predictions compare favorably to measured field values with mean standard errors of 24 percent and 6 percent, respectively, while areas of predicted high shear coincide with the newly formed pool locations. At high flows, the fish habitat index used (weighted usable area) increased by 150 percent to 210 percent. The application of the hydrodynamic model indicated a net habitat benefit from the restoration activities and provides a means of assessing and optimizing planned works.     

A Hydraulic MultiModel Ensemble Framework for Visualizing Flood Inundation Uncertainty

While deterministic forecasts provide a single realization of potential inundation, the inherent uncertainty associated with forecasts also needs to be conveyed for improved decision support. The objective of this study was to develop an ensemble framework for the quantification and visualization of uncertainty associated with flood inundation forecast maps. An 11‐member ensemble streamflow forecast at lead times from 0 to 48 hr was used to force two hydraulic models to produce a multimodel ensemble. The hydraulic models used are (1) the International River Interface Cooperative along with Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels solver and (2) the two‐dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center‐River Analysis System. Uncertainty was quantified and augmented onto flood inundation maps by calculating statistical spread among the ensemble members. For visualization, a series of probability flood maps conveying the uncertainty in forecasted water extent, water depth, and flow velocity was disseminated through a web‐based decision support tool. The results from this study offer a framework for quantifying and visualizing model uncertainty in forecasted flood inundation maps.     

Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.     

USING GEOLOGY TO IMPROVE FLOOD HAZARD MANAGEMENT ON ALLUVIAL FANS ‐ AN EXAMPLE FROM LAUGHLIN,NEVADA1

A study of the piedmont of the Newberry Mountains near Laughlin, Nevada, demonstrates that geologic information can improve the scientific basis of flood‐hazard management on alluvial fans in desert areas. Comparison of geologic information against flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs) reveals flaws in conventional methods for flood hazard delineation in this setting. Geologic evidence indicates that large parts of the Newberry piedmont have been isolated from significant flooding for at least the past 10,000 years. This contrasts with existing FIRMs that include large tracts of nonflood prone land in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood hazard zones and exclude areas of indisputably flood prone land from the regulatory flood plain. From the basis of the geology, flood hazards on at least one‐third of the piedmont are mischaracterized on the regulatory maps. The formal incorporation of geologic data into flood hazard studies on desert piedmonts could significantly reduce this type of discrepancy and substantially reduce the scope, hence cost, of more elaborate engineering studies and hazard mitigation strategies. The results of this study affirm the value of new Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommendations for characterizing alluvial fan flood hazards and support an argument for mandating geological studies in the regulatory process.     

FLOOD HAZARD STUDIES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT. The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicate that ERTS-I is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood management. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. The flood prone areas delineated on these maps correspond to areas that would be inundated by significant flooding (approximately the 100 year flood). The flood prone area boundaries were generally in agreement with flood hazard maps produced by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Geological Survey although the latter are somewhat more detailed because of their larger scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.     

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province,southwestern China

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.     

VELOCITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN STREAMBED SIMULATION CULVERTS USED FOR FISH PASSAGE1

ABSTRACT: Stream crossings designed to simulate a natural streambed inside a culvert are commonly used to meet criteria where fish passage is required. Currently, there has been little research that quantitatively examines the flow patterns within these streambed simulation culverts. A model is presented that estimates the percent of a cross section that is within the swimming ability of juvenile fish developed from velocity measurements on first‐generation stream simulation culverts — those culverts with a continuous gravel bed. The model, developed with regression techniques, uses physical and hydraulic parameters including discharge, total cross sectional area, Froude number, and relative roughness, and was tested directly against velocity distributions computed from field measurements and in a culvert design mode. Results were favorable, although larger percentage errors exist, particularly at small flow depths. The model appears to underestimate the percent of channel cross section at or below a limiting velocity, hence it is generally conservative in design mode.     

FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT NEEDS PECULIAR TO ARID CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Many practices followed uniformly nationwide in the federal flood control and floodplain management programs are inappropriate or even counter productive in the arid Utah climate. An analysis of the 130-year Utah flood history, the structural and nonstructural flood programs in the state, and local perceptions obtained by field visits and interviews in 35 Utah communities revealed a number of such inefficiencies. Since flood flows dissipate quickly when they emerge from mountain watersheds onto desert lowlands, risks are concentrated near the apex of alluvial fans, include hazard from mud as well as water flow, and are compounded by canal interception of flood waters. Because of variation in the area flooded from one event to the next, floodplain mapping has tended to show risks too high in mapped areas and too low outside. Traditional channelization carries floods downstream past where they would dissipate naturally. The federal government needs to become more active in developing better flood hazard delineation and structural and nonstructural designs for arid areas. State government can help by providing a forum where communities can exchange experiences, reviewing structural designs prepared by local government, and providing local communities with technical expertise for dealing with federal agencies.     

MULTIOBJECTIVE REAL‐TIME RESERVOIR OPERATION WITH A NETWORK FLOW ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: A network flow algorithm has been developed for the optimization of real‐time operation of a multiple reservoir system. Two purposes have been considered in the operation: flood control and hydropower generation. A special network structure was developed which allows the consideration of river routing. A multiobjective formulation is utilized thus allowing generation of a non‐dominated curve. The effect of imperfect forecast on the performance of the real‐time operation model is also evaluated. An application is made to a subsystem of the Brazilian hydroelectric system, located in the Paranapanema river basin. In this case study, the model showed good performance under the largest flood of the historical records.     

Mathematical Model on Flow Regime and Water Harvesting in Inundation Plains1

Abstract: A mathematical model on flow regime and water harvesting in inundation plains is presented. The flow profile is a free over‐fall at the end of the desired inundation. The flow front in the plain is on‐line for the entire coverage, in a sense that there is initiation of flow mass after each small reach of the flow traverse, and it is continuing to the extreme point of coverage. The water‐harvesting phenomenon depends upon the occurrences of the hydrologic events, the nature of surface flows in the valley, the expected favorable time of flood incidence, and the soil characteristics of the plains. The model has been tested for three micro‐watersheds of different soil characteristics. It is best suited to platykurtic nature of flood phenomenon in the study area, with the correlation co‐efficient in‐between computed and observed amount of water harvesting above 0.90.     

Protecting people and property: the influence of land-use planners on flood hazard mitigation in New Urbanist developments

Research suggests that characteristics of local government land-use planners help determine the priority that local communities place on flood hazard mitigation. However, research has not examined the significance of land-use planners' values and role orientations for flood hazard mitigation. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the influence that land-use planners' values and role orientations have on flood hazard mitigation in a national sample of New Urbanist development projects. Findings indicate that land-use planners' values and role orientations have significant implications for flood hazard mitigation in these projects. The paper recommends that local governments adopt a land-use planning approach to flood hazard mitigation that relies on land-use planners to help direct development away from hazardous portions of development sites.     

WATER-SURFACE PROFILES WITHOUT ENERGY LOSS COEFFICIENTS1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a new method of computing water-surface profiles, which does not require the assumption of hydrostatic pressure or of roughness coefficients. The method is based upon distributing entropy production values along a channel as uniformly as boundary conditions permit. The method requires a discharge capacity rating at a channel cross-section within the limits of the reach of the channel. A new theoretical relationship between the kinetic and momentum coefficients for the velocity profile is used, together with a dynamic programming technique for optimal distribution of energy losses along the channel. A computer model was developed and was used to verify the methodology for flood flow and channel data at four locations.     

ARTICULATED CONCRETE BLOCK STABILITY TESTING1

ABSTRACT: An articulated concrete block revetment system was developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to test and evaluate the practicability of the protocols for overtopping and channelized flow conditions. Test facilities were constructed, prototype articulated concrete blocks were fabricated and installed into the facilities, and the blocks were tested using the established protocols. The test results indicated that both the overtopping and channel flow tests yielded similar results: the blocks reached a point of instability at approximately the same velocity and shear stresses. The similar test results indicate that only one protocol is required to evaluate an articulated concrete block system. It was demonstrated that both protocols can be effectively conducted. It is recommended that the overtopping test be adapted as a standard test procedure because of its reduced construction costs and its efficiency compared to the channelized test.     

FLOOD HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT ON ALLUVIAL FANS1

ABSTRACT: Recognition of the flood hazard that exists on alluvial fans has seriously lagged behind the recognition of other more conventional flood hazards such as those associated with most rivers. This delay in recognition was due, until recently, to a general lack of economic investment and development in these areas and a concomitant lack of historical alluvial fan flood damage. Dramatic recent events, such as Tropical Storm Kathleen, emphasized to the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) the need for developing an appropriate methodology to identify flood hazard areas on alluvial fans. This paper presents the methodology now employed by FIA as well as flood plain management considerations that could reduce future flood related damage to communities developing in these areas.     

Evaluating the effects of local floodplain management policies on property owner behavior

Floodplain management programs have been adopted by more than 85% of local governments in the nation with designated flood hazard areas. Yet, there has been little evaluation of the influence of floodplain policies on private sector decisions. This article examines the degree to which riverine floodplain management affects purchase and mitigation decisions made by owners of developed floodplain property in ten selected cities in the United States. We find that the stringency of such policies does not lessen floodplain property buying because of the overriding importance of site amenity factors. Indeed, flood protection measures incorporated into development projects appear to add to the attractiveness of floodplain location by increasing the perceived safety from the hazard. Property owner responses to the flood hazard after occupancy involve political action more often than individual on-site mitigation. Floodplain programs only minimally encourage on-site mitigation by the owner because most owners have not experienced a flood and many are unaware of the flood threat. It is suggested that floodplain programs will be more effective in meeting their objectives if they are directed at intervention points earlier in the land conversion process.