都江堰市红色村干沟泥石流活动特征及危险性评估

"5·12"四川汶川大地震导致灾区地质灾害危险性大大增强,严重影响了周边居民的生命财产安全。都江堰市虹口乡红色干沟泥石流灾害隐患点是其中之一。根据泥石流的成因、类型、规模,以及泥石流的活动特征,对泥石流活动进行了危险性评估,指出泥石流防治工程方案应采用以排为主,适当拦挡的原则,建拦挡坝用以消能、调节泥石流流量;建防护堤用以限制泥石流漫流,对居民区进行有效防护。     

Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.     

Probe into the method of regional ecological risk assessment-a case study of wetland in the Yellow River Delta in China

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a new field of study for evaluating the risks associated with a possible eco-environmental hazard under uncertainty. Regional ERA is more complex than general ERA, as it requires that risk receptors, risk sources, risk exposure, uncertainty and especially spatial heterogeneity all be taken into account. In this paper, a five-step process of regional ERA is developed and tested through a wetland case study in the Yellow River Delta in China. First, indices and formulas are established for measuring degrees of ecological risk and damage to ecosystems. Using a combination of remote sensing data, historical records and survey data, and with the assistance of GIS techniques, the indices and formulas are then applied to the wetland in the study area. On the basis of the assessment results, we propose a number of countermeasures for the various risk zones in the Yellow River Delta.     

茨榆山乡上窝铺泥石流灾害特征及防治对策

秦皇岛北部山区泥石流地质灾害隐患威胁着当地居民的生命财产安全,严重阻碍了乡村经济的快速发展。以青龙满族自治县茨榆山乡上窝铺泥石流为例,通过实地调查与数据分析,确定了泥石流成因、类型、活动状况、危害性、危险区范围;获取了泥石流流体重度规律、泥石流流速、泥石流流量、一次性固体冲出物主要力学参数特征;根据泥石流的特点及主要参数,提出监测预警方案及工程治理方案。     

HUMAN STABILITY IN A HIGH FLOOD HAZARD ZONE1

ABSTRACT: The delineation of high flood hazard zones within a flood plain is usually independent of the hydraulic parameters that constitute a life threatening situation. In order to define human instability in high hazard areas, a study was conducted to identify when an adult human could not stand or maneuver in a simulated flood flow. An analysis was performed on a rigid body monolith resulting in a toppling hazard envelope curve (velocity vs. depth). A 120 lb monolith was then constructed and tested to relate the actual flow velocity and depth at toppling to theory. A series of human subjects (90–201 Ibs) were placed in a recirculating flume and tested to determine the velocity and depth of flow that caused their instability. The test results determined that the product number, which is the product of the velocity and depth at toppling of the monolith, closely compared to the theoretical envelope curve. The monolith results represent the lower limit of human stability. Also, the product number appeared to be a predictor of human instability in flood flow. A relationship was developed to estimate the product number at which a human subject becomes unstable as a function of the height and weight of the subject.     

A Methodology for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards

Natural and technological disasters of the past have shown that such incidences significantly affect local and regional development. Faced with the task of ensuring economic, human and environmental development as well as insuring physical structures, planning authorities, insurance companies and emergency managers are looking for methodologies to identify highly sensitive areas in terms of their overall risk. Existing methodologies like the Natural Hazard Index for Megacities or the Total Place Vulnerability Index have limitations due to their sectoral approach, which makes them less useful for integrated spatial planning. This paper presents the Integrated Risk Assessment of Multi-Hazards as a new approach to serve as a basis for a spatial risk management process. The approach integrates various hazards into an integrated hazard map, combines this with the region's vulnerability and thus produces an integrated risk map. Moreover, the methodology offers a tool to derive weighting factors for hazards as well as for vulnerability components.     

Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

Summary By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment.Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants.Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data.     

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams

The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process.     

SPATIAL MODELLING WITH GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR DETERMINATION OF WATER RESOURCES VULNERABILITY APPLICATION TO AN AREA IN MASSIF CENTRAL (FRANCE)1

ABSTRACT: A method for water resources protection based on spatial variability of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability of a water resource is defined as the risk that the resource will become contaminated if a pollutant is placed on the surface at one point as compared to another. A spatial modelling method is defined in this paper to estimate a travel time between any point of a catchment and a resource (river or well). This method is based on spatial analysis tools integrated in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The method is illustrated by an application to an area of Massif Central (France) where three different types of flow appear: surface flow, shallow subsurface flow, and permanent ground water flow (baseflow). The proposed method gives results similar to classical methods of estimation of travel time. The contribution of GIS is to improve the mapping of vulnerability by taking the spatial variability of physical phenomena into account.     

Australian local government action on climate change adaptation: some critical reflections to assist decision-making

The primary objective of this paper is to discuss the limitations of risk management as a strategy for Australian local government climate change adaptation and explore the advantages of complementary approaches, including a social-ecological resilience framework, adaptive and transition management, and vulnerability assessment. Some federal and local government initiatives addressing the limitations of risk-based approaches are introduced. We argue that conventional risk-based approaches to adaptation, largely focused on hazard identification and quantitative modelling, will be inadequate on their own for dealing with the challenges of climate change. We suggest that responses to climate change adaptation should move beyond conventional risk-based strategies to more realistically account for complex and dynamically evolving social-ecological systems.     

Assessment of Coarse Sediment Mobility in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River,Colorado

The Gunnison River in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park (BCNP) near Montrose, Colorado is a mixed gravel and bedrock river with ephemeral side tributaries. Flow rates are controlled immediately upstream by a diversion tunnel and three reservoirs. The management of the hydraulic control structures has decreased low-frequency, high-stage flows, which are the dominant geomorphic force in bedrock channel systems. We developed a simple model to estimate the extent of sediment mobilization at a given flow in the BCNP and to evaluate changes in the extent and frequency of sediment mobilization for flow regimes before and after flow regulation in 1966. Our methodology provides a screening process for identifying and prioritizing areas in terms of sediment mobility criteria when more precise systematic field data are unavailable. The model uses the ratio between reach-averaged bed shear stress and critical shear stress to estimate when a particular grain size is mobilized for a given reach. We used aerial photography from 1992, digital elevation models, and field surveys to identify individual reaches and estimate reach-averaged hydraulic geometry. Pebble counts of talus and debris fan deposits were used to estimate regional colluvial grain-size distributions. Our results show that the frequency of flows mobilizing river bank sediment along a majority of the Gunnison River in the BCNP has significantly declined since 1966. The model results correspond well to those obtained from more detailed, site-specific field studies carried out by other investigators. Decreases in the frequency of significant sediment-mobilizing flows were more pronounced for regions within the BCNP where the channel gradient is lower. Implications of these results for management include increased risk of encroachment of vegetation on the active channel and long-term channel narrowing by colluvial deposits. It must be recognized that our methodology represents a screening of regional differences in sediment mobility. More precise estimates of hydraulic and sediment parameters would likely be required for dictating quantitative management objectives within the context of sediment mobility and sensitivity to changes in the flow regime.     

Managing the potential public health risks from bioaerosol liberation at commercial composting sites in the UK: An analysis of the evidence base

The diversion of biodegradable waste from landfill is of key importance in developing a sustainable waste strategy for the next decade and beyond. The proliferation of waste treatment technologies such as Mechanical Biological Treatment, Anaerobic Digestion and Composting will be paramount in achieving this strategic goal. This paper evaluates the scientific information needed to undertake an effective assessment of the potential public health risks from exposure to bioaerosols in the vicinity of commercial composting activities. Knowledge gaps currently exist in the scientific and regulatory community that limit our ability to effectively characterise source-term emissions, develop reliable dose–response data and accurately model the dispersion of bioaerosols. Consequently reliable risk estimates cannot be developed to inform the management of these potential risks. This uncertainty may prove a barrier to progress in achieving waste diversion and composting targets in Wales and the rest of the UK. A robust and extensive evidence base is required to inform the risk assessment process. This paper advocates the need for further, more focussed research into hazard characterisation of viable and non-viable organisms, improved dose–response data, exposure assessment techniques and an evaluation of the existing risk control and mitigation measures currently adopted. It is hoped that his will enable effective, timely and proportional risk management and mitigation measures to be developed that will foster the confidence required in composting technologies to achieve waste diversion targets and develop sustainable waste strategies.     

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: a case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors.     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Development of community of practice to support quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology products: contaminant bioremediation and invasive carp control as cases

Synthetic biology has the potential for a broad array of applications. However, realization of this potential is challenged by the paucity of relevant data for conventional risk assessment protocols, a limitation due to to the relative nascence of the field, as well as the poorly characterized and prioritized hazard, exposure, and dose–response considerations associated with the development and use of synthetic biology-derived organisms. Where quantitative risk assessment approaches are necessarily to fulfill regulatory requirements for review of products containing genetically modified organisms, this paper reviews one potential avenue for early-stage quantitative risk assessment for biosafety considerations of synthetic biology organism deployment into the environment. Building from discussion from a March 2018 US Army Engineer Research and Development Center workshop on developing such quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology, this paper reviews the findings and discussion of workshop participants. This paper concludes that, while synthetic biology risk assessment and governance will continue to refine and develop in the coming years, a quantitative framework that builds from existing practice is one potentially beneficial option for risk assessors that must contend with the technology’s limited hazard characterization or exposure assessment considerations in the near term.