Using the expert model PERPEST to translate measured and predicted pesticide exposure data into ecological risks

An important topic in the registration of pesticides and the interpretation of monitoring data is the estimation of the consequences of a certain concentration of a pesticide for the ecology of aquatic ecosystems. Solving these problems requires predictions of the expected response of the ecosystem to chemical stress. Up until now, a dominant approach to come up with such a prediction is the use of simulation models or safety factors. The disadvantage of the use of safety factors is a crude method that does not provide any insight into the concentration–response relationships at the ecosystem level. On the other hand, simulation models also have serious drawbacks like that they are often very complex, lack transparency, their implementation is expensive and there may be a compilation of errors, due to uncertainties in parameters and processes. In this paper, we present the expert model prediction of the ecological risks of pesticides (PERPEST) that overcomes these problems. It predicts the effects of a given concentration of a pesticide based on the outcome of already performed experiments using experimental ecosystems. This has the great advantage that the outcome is more realistic. The paper especially discusses how this model can be used to translate measured and predicted concentrations of pesticides into ecological risks, by taking data on measured and predicted concentrations of atrazine as an example. It is argued that this model can be of great use to evaluate the outcome of chemical monitoring programmes (e.g. performed in the light of the Water Framework Directive) and can even be used to evaluate the effects of mixtures.     

Group size and ectoparasitism affect daily survival probability in a colonial bird

Little is known in general about how group size or ectoparasitism affect survival in colonial animals. We estimated daily within-season survival probabilities for nesting adult and recently fledged juvenile cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) at 239 colonies from 1983 to 2003 in southwestern Nebraska, USA. Some colonies had been fumigated to remove ectoparasites. We conducted mark-recapture at each colony site to estimate daily survival. There were no systematic differences between males and females in daily survival. Adults and juveniles occupying parasite-free colonies had, on average, 4.4% and 62.2% greater daily survival, respectively, than their counterparts in naturally infested colonies. Daily survival of all birds increased with colony size for both parasite-free colonies and those under natural conditions, although the effect was stronger for adults at fumigated sites and for juveniles. Average daily survival probability for adults tended to increase during warmer and drier summers. Although daily survival varied at some sites over the course of the nesting cycle, there were no strongly consistent within-year temporal effects on survival. Even small differences in daily survival probability can translate into large effects on mean lifespan. The deleterious effects of ectoparasites on daily survival within the season represent a previously unknown cost of ectoparasitism. The increase in within-season survival with colony size reflects the net effects of many costs and benefits associated with colony size. Ectoparasitism is probably the most important cost that tends to partly balance the positive effects of large colonies. The greater survival of cliff swallows in the larger colonies is a previously unknown advantage of colonial nesting.Communicated by P. Heeb     

Pacific harbor seals (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phoca vitulina</Emphasis>) and salmon: genetics presents hard numbers for elucidating predator-prey dynamics

We used a PCR-based species test and microsatellite genotyping to determine salmonid species composition and quantity of Chinook among Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) prey. Tests were applied to DNA extracted from all salmonid bones recovered from scat (fecal) samples. Condition of bone samples and quantity of DNA varied substantially. Although DNA extraction and species identification was only successful for just over half of the bone samples, 93% of all scat samples had bones that were identified to species. Most often only a single salmonid prey species was evident within a scat sample (39% exclusively coho and 46% exclusively Chinook) but 13% contained bones from more than one species of salmonid. For scat samples that contained Chinook bones, 68% had skeletal remains from the same fish and 32% had bones from more than one individual Chinook, varying in number from two to four individuals per scat. In one case, bones from one individual Chinook were recovered in three different scat samples.     

On the social structure of offspring rearing in the burrower bug,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Sehirus cinctus</Emphasis> (Hemiptera: Cydnidae)

Maternal-offspring interactions are important in a variety of animals. Understanding the evolution of these interactions requires that we also study the broader social context in which they occur. To date, behavioral studies on burrower bugs, Sehirus cinctus, have focused exclusively on interactions between mothers and offspring. Here we ask whether these interactions occur in a social context that extends beyond the family unit of a mother and her own genetic offspring. Such social structure can arise from behaviors that occur before eggs are laid, or from actions of individuals that occur post-hatching. We present field data showing that lay sites of mothers are spatially aggregated on a scale that would lead to behavioral interactions among families. Microsatellite markers suggest neighboring mothers are unrelated. Laboratory experiments do not support the hypothesis that spatial aggregation results from a direct attraction of females to one another. Other laboratory studies reported here indicate that, after hatching, unrelated clutches sometimes join together to form multifamily groups. Experiments reveal that mothers are not necessary for these joining events to occur. In sum, these data suggest that both mothers and offspring play active, but different, roles in generating the social environment in which offspring rearing occurs.Communicated by N. Wedell     

EFFECTS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON FOREST STREAMWATER QUALITY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY1

ABSTRACT: Forest land managers are concerned about the effects of logging on soil erosion, streamflow, and water quality and are promoting the use of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to control impacts. To compare the effects of BMP implementation on streamwater quality, two of three small watersheds in Kentucky were harvested in 1983 and 1984, one with BMPs, the other without BMPs. There was no effect of clearcutting on stream temperatures. Streamflow increased by 17.8 cm (123 percent) on the BMP watershed during the first 17 months after cutting and by 20.6 cm (138 percent) on the Non-BMP watershed. Water yields remained significantly elevated compared to the uncut watershed 8 years after harvesting. Suspended sediment flux was 14 and 30 times higher on the BMP and Non-BMP Watersheds, respectively, than on the uncut watershed during treatment, and 4 and 6.5 times higher in the 17 months after treatment was complete. Clearcutting resulted in increased concentrations of nitrate, and other nutrients compared to the uncut watershed, and concentrations were highest on the non-BMP watershed. Recovery of biotic control over nutrient losses occurred within three years of clearcutting. The streamside buffer strip was effective in reducing the impact of clearcutting on water yield and sediment flux.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Soybean production and conversion of tropical forest in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of Vilhena, Rondônia

The recent rise in Brazilian soybean production has generated concern among the environmental community and some authors that natural tropical environments of the Amazon Basin are being converted to soybean fields. Proponents of soybean production counter that soybeans represent a viable agricultural commodity for the region; environmental concern is unwarranted, because new soybean fields are replacing already deforested or otherwise transformed lands. Both arguments have been made without comprehensive study and measure of land-use/land-cover (LULC) in areas undergoing expansion of soybean production. This case study, conducted in the municipality of Vilhena, Rond?nia, Brazil, in the southwestern Amazon Basin, uses remote sensing to evaluate the LULC accompanying this municipality's large growth in soybean production from 1996 to 2001. Forests are being converted for soybean production, but most of the production increase appears attributable to slight expansion of already existing fields, conversion of already deforested land, and higher yields.     

Biosensors for detection of mercury in contaminated soils

Biosensors based on whole bacterial cells and on bacterial heavy metal binding protein were used to determine the mercury concentration in soil. The soil samples were collected in a vegetable garden accidentally contaminated with elemental mercury 25 years earlier. Bioavailable mercury was measured using different sensors: a protein-based biosensor, a whole bacterial cell based biosensor, and a plant sensor, i.e. morphological and biochemical responses in primary leaves and roots of bean seedlings grown in the mercury-contaminated soil. For comparison the total mercury concentration of the soil samples was determined by AAS. Whole bacterial cell and protein-based biosensors gave accurate responses proportional to the total amount of mercury in the soil samples. On the contrary, plant sensors were found to be less useful indicators of soil mercury contamination, as determined by plant biomass, mercury content of primary leaves and enzyme activities.     

The transformation of outdoor ammonium nitrate aerosols in the indoor environment

Recent studies associate particulate air pollution with adverse health effects; however, the exposure to indoor particles of outdoor origin is not well characterized, particularly for individual chemical species. We conducted a field study in an unoccupied, single-story residence in Clovis, California to provide data and analyses to address issues important for assessing exposure. We used real-time particle monitors both outdoors and indoors to quantify nitrate, sulfate, and carbon particulate matter of particle size 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM-2.5). The results show that measured indoor ammonium nitrate concentrations were significantly lower than would be expected based solely on penetration and deposition losses. The additional reduction can be attributed to the transformation indoors of ammonium nitrate into ammonia and nitric acid gases, which are subsequently lost by deposition and sorption to indoor surfaces. A mass balance model that accounts for the kinetics of ammonium nitrate evaporation was able to reproduce measured indoor ammonium nitrate and nitric acid concentrations, resulting in a fitted value of the deposition velocity for nitric acid of 0.56 cm s⁻¹. The results indicate that indoor exposure to outdoor ammonium nitrate in Central Valley of California are small, and suggest that exposure assessments based on total particle mass measured outdoors may obscure the actual causal relationships for indoor exposure to particles of outdoor origin.     

Pesticides in rainfall in Europe

Papers and published reports investigating the presence of pesticides in rainfall in Europe were reviewed. Approximately half of the compounds that were analysed for were detected. For those detected, most concentrations were below about 100 ng/l, but larger concentrations, up to a few thousand nanograms per litre, were detected occasionally at most monitoring sites. The most frequently detected compounds were lindane (gamma-HCH) and its isomer (alpha-HCH), which were detected on 90-100% of sampling occasions at most of the sites where they were monitored. For compounds developed more recently, detection was usually limited to the spraying season. A classification of pesticides according to their deposition pattern is proposed.