An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Coping with accelerating socio-technical systems

In 1997 a workshop was held on the subject of how to cope with accelerating technologies. These are industries such as aviation, air traffic control and biotechnology, amongst others, where the rate of technological development is significant. A number of papers were presented from a range of viewpoints and in a variety of different industrial contexts. The papers ranged from theoretical models to help understand the process of acceleration and its impact on organisational learning, to practical analyses of future potential risks in specific accelerating industries such as air traffic control. The aim of the papers and the workshop as a whole was to provide insight into the problems associated with accelerating technologies, and thereby derive measures to control or cope with such acceleration. The problems arising from acceleration, as predicted by the theoretical models and evidenced by experiences in accelerating industries (e.g. aviation) are manifold. Two examples of particular problems are unforeseen risks in an industry (a lack of forward vision), and a failure to learn adequately (i.e. in time) from incidents occurring in an organisation (a lack of constructive hindsight). There is also an incipient danger of society being driven by technology rather than being led by social needs. Even if each technology ultimately becomes ‘ultra-safe’, it will nevertheless have its own ‘event horizon’, limiting useful further progress. Each of the papers from the workshop is summarised and integrated into a three-part synopsis of the workshop. This covers the context of accelerating technologies, modelling their impacts, and deriving coping strategies. Four of the papers are included in their entirety as separate papers in their own right in this special issue of Safety Science.     

Bedding and within-pen location effects on feedlot pen runoff quality using a rainfall simulator

Soluble salts, nutrients, and pathogenic bacteria in feedlot-pen runoff have the potential to cause pollution of the environment. A 2-yr study (1998-1999) was conducted at a beef cattle (Bos taurus) feedlot in southern Alberta, Canada, to determine the effect of bedding material [barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) straw versus wood chips] and within-pen location on the chemical and bacterial properties of pen-floor runoff. Runoff was generated with a portable rainfall simulator and analyzed for chemical content (nitrogen [N], phosphorus [P], soluble salts, electrical conductivity [EC], sodium adsorption ratio [SAR], dissolved oxygen [DO], and pH) and populations of three groups of bacteria (Escherichia coli, total coliforms, total aerobic heterotrophs at 27 degrees C) in 1998 and 1999. Bedding had a significant (P < or = 0.05) effect on NH4-N concentration and load in 1999, SO4 load in 1998, SO4 concentration and load in 1999, and total coliforms in both years; where these three variables were higher in wood than straw pens. Location had a significant effect on EC and concentrations of total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), Na, K, SO4, and Cl in 1998, and total coliforms in both years. These seven variables were higher at the bedding pack than pen floor location, indicating that bedding packs were major reservoirs of TKN, soluble salts, and total coliforms. Significantly higher dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total P, and NH4-N concentrations and loads at the bedding pack location in wood pens in 1998, and a similar trend for TKN concentration in 1999, indicated that this bedding-location treatment was a greater source of nutrients to runoff than the other three bedding-location treatments. Bedding, location, and their interaction may therefore be a potential tool to manage nutrients, soluble salts, and bacteria in feedlot runoff.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen in rainfall simulation runoff after fresh and composted beef cattle manure application

Fresh beef cattle (Bos taurus) manure has traditionally been applied to cropland in southern Alberta, but there has been an increase in application of composted manure to cropland in this region. However, the quality of runoff under fresh manure (FM) versus composted manure (CM) has not been investigated. Our objective was to compare runoff quality under increasing rates (0, 13, 42, 83 Mg ha(-1) dry wt.) of FM and CM applied for two consecutive years to a clay loam soil cropped to irrigated barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). We determined total phosphorus (TP), particulate phosphorus (PP), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total nitrogen (TN), NH4-N, and NO3-N concentrations and loads in runoff after one (1999) and two (2000) applications of FM and CM. We found significantly (P < or = 0.05) higher TP, DRP, and NH4-N concentrations, and higher DRP and TN loads under FM than CM after 2 yr of manure application. The TP loads were also higher under FM than CM at the 83 Mg ha(-1) rate in 2000, and DRP loads were higher for FM than CM at this high rate when averaged over both years. Application rate had a significant effect on TP and DRP concentrations in runoff. In addition, the slope values of the regressions between TP and DRP in runoff versus application rate were considerably higher for FM in 2000 than for FM in 1999, and CM in both 1999 and 2000. Significant positive relationships were found for TP and DRP in runoff versus soil Kelowna-extractable P and soil water-extractable P for FM and CM in 2000, indicating that interaction of runoff with the soil controlled the release of P. Total P and DRP were the variables most affected by the treatments. Overall, our study found that application of CM rather than FM to cropland may lower certain forms of P and N in surface runoff, but this is dependent on the interaction with year, application rate, or both.     

Modeling methyl isothiocyanate soil flux and emission ratio from a field following a chemigation of metam-sodium

Metam-sodium had become the most heavily used soil fumigant in recent years as the deadline approached for methyl bromide to phase out in January 2005. After application, metam-sodium decomposes rapidly to methyl isothiocyanate (MITC), a highly toxic compound capable of killing a wide spectrum of soil-borne pests. Inhalation risk of MITC ranked high among airborne agricultural pesticides in California. Information about off-gassing intensity and percentage of emission is essential for exposure risk assessment and mitigation measures, but is limited, especially for new application methods such as drip chemigation. Air concentrations of MITC were monitored around a field treated with metam-sodium through surface drip irrigation system. The field was tarped with plastic films before the chemigation. The air concentrations at receptor locations were simulated for the period of air monitoring with the Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) Dispersion Model, and soil flux density of MITC at various periods after chemigation was estimated through a back-calculation procedure. The estimated soil flux density of MITC showed a diurnal pattern, with the daytime flux stronger than nighttime. However, the average air concentration at nighttime was higher than that at daytime. Soil flux density peaked at 4.30 microg m-2 s-1 in the first 12-h period after chemigation, then declined with time. The MITC emission percentage in the first 60-h was 2.65% of applied mass, of which 57% occurred in the first 24-h after chemigation. The study indicated that the tarped bed drip application method of metam-sodium had a relatively good control of MITC emission from soil.     

Gastroschisis and omphalocele: Prenatal diagnosis and perinatal management

Obstetric ultrasonography has made the prenatal diagnosis of gastroschisis and omphalocele more common. We present illustrative cases 2nd review the ultrasonographic features. Because of the increased risk of concomitant abnormalities (including trisomies) with omphalocele, full evaluation is indicated when this diagnosis is suspected. Recent perinatal approaches to delivery have favoured caesarean section. without scientific evidence that outcome is improved. Our experience. as well as a review of the literature, suggests that the outcome for vaginally delivered infants is acceptable. A prospective study of this question is needed.     

Goitre and environmental iodine deficiency in the UK — Derbyshire: A review

Endemic goitre was prevalent in the population of Derbyshire in the UK for many centuries until it declined from the 1930s. A contemporary medical survey showed that endemicity of goitre was particularly higher in the Carboniferous limestone areas of the Derbyshire-Peak District. Unlike classical goitrous areas of the world, where the distribution of goitre has been found to be related to the iodine content in the environment, there is no such relationship reported for the Derbyshire-Peak District area. The present study reviews the presence of endemic goitre in this area with reference to iodine in different environmental media using past and present data. In comparison with the world average values, the iodine contents in the soil and sediment in the Peak District are not deficient, but compared to England, Wales and Scotland averages, these levels are low. As no information on the mobility and bioavailability of iodine of this area is available, a cautious approach is necessary before any assumption is made on the aetiology of endemic goitre. The study also discusses some hypotheses relating to the possible cause of endemic goitre in the limestone areas. Further research needs are suggested depending on the land use and geochemistry of the Peak District to determine the underlying causes of the former endemic goitre in this area.     

Predicting ozone levels

This paper presents a statistical model that is capable of predicting ozone levels from precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions during daylight hours in the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA) of Kuwait. The model has been developed from ambient air quality data that was recorded for one year starting from December 1994 using an air pollution mobile monitoring station. The functional relationship between ozone level and the various independent variables has been determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. The model contains two terms that describe the dependence of ozone on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane hydrocarbon precursor concentrations, and other terms that relate to wind direction, wind speed, sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and solar energy. In the model, the levels of the precursors are inversely related to ozone concentration, whereas SO₂ concentration, wind speed and solar radiation are positively correlated. Typically, 63 % of the variation in ozone levels can be explained by the levels of NOx. The model is shown to be statistically significant and model predictions and experimental observations are shown to be consistent. A detailed analysis of the ozone-temperature relationship is also presented; at temperatures less than 27 °C there is a positive correlation between temperature and ozone concentration whereas at temperatures greater than 27 °C a negative correlation is seen. This is the first time a non-monotonic relationship between ozone levels and temperature has been reported and discussed.     

Fate of disinfection by-products in groundwater during aquifer storage and recovery with reclaimed water

Knowledge on the behaviour of disinfection by-products (DBPs) during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is limited even though this can be an important consideration where recovered waters are used for potable purposes. A reclaimed water ASR trial in an anoxic aquifer in South Australia has provided some of the first quantitative information at field-scale on the fate and transport of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). The results revealed that THM half-lives varied from <1 to 65 days, with persistence of chloroform being highest and bromoform lowest. HAA attenuation was rapid (<1 day). Rates of THM attenuation were shown to be highly dependent on the geochemical environment as evidenced by the 2-5 fold reduction in half-lives at the ASR well which became methanogenic during the storage phase of the trial, as compared to an observation well situated 4 m away, which remained nitrate-reducing. These findings agree with previous laboratory-based studies which also show persistence declining with increased bromination of THMs and reducing redox conditions. Modelling suggests that the chlorinated injectant has sufficient residual chlorine and natural organic matter for substantial increases in THMs to occur within the aquifer, however this is masked in some of the field observations due to concurrent attenuation, particularly for the more rapidly attenuated brominated compounds. The model is based on data taken from water distribution systems and may not be representative for ASR since bromide and ammonia concentrations in the injected water and the possible role of organic carbon in the aquifer were not taken into consideration. During the storage phase DBP formation potentials were reduced as a result of the removal of precursor material despite an increase in the THM formation potential per unit weight of total organic carbon. This suggests that water quality improvements with respect to THMs and HAAs can be achieved through ASR in anoxic aquifers.