Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

REGIONAL PLANNING FOR LAND DISPOSAL OF WASTEWATER1

ABSTRACT This paper describes the development and use of a mixed integer programming model for the planning of land disposal wastewater treatment facilities. Consideration is given to relevant construction and operating costs for land sites, transmission arteries, land acquisition costs, tangible benefits from land use, controls on aquifers, and various other engineering and technical constraints The model is used to determine which land disposal sites should serve which treatment plants, when initial construction should be initiated and completed, and when capacity expansion should occur. The model's application to the St. Louis Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area is illustrated and discussed.     

The commons dilemma

Whenever a short-term or local need in the exploitation of a scarce natural resource must be pitted against its long-term use or the needs of the larger community, the commons dilemma arises. The study of commons dilemmas originated in agricultural economies but has importance in all resource management areas. Psychologists have recently found it to be a useful paradigm in the study of decision-making behavior.This paper reviews the commons dilemma as it has been used in three areas of psychological research: games theory, animal and human territorial behavior, and behavior reinforcement. In the first area, results show how communication within groups operates in cooperation/competition situations. In the second, the effects of social and political ideologies are examined. In the third, the implications of the commons dilemma with regard to breaking out of social traps are discussed. Throughout, the relevance of this basic psychological research to rational resource management is made clear. An extensive bibliography of relevant original research is provided.     

Recycling and recovery routes for incinerated sewage sludge ash (ISSA): A review

The drivers for increasing incineration of sewage sludge and the characteristics of the resulting incinerated sewage sludge ash (ISSA) are reviewed. It is estimated that approximately 1.7 million tonnes of ISSA are produced annually world-wide and is likely to increase in the future. Although most ISSA is currently landfilled, various options have been investigated that allow recycling and beneficial resource recovery. These include the use of ISSA as a substitute for clay in sintered bricks, tiles and pavers, and as a raw material for the manufacture of lightweight aggregate. ISSA has also been used to form high density glass–ceramics. Significant research has investigated the potential use of ISSA in blended cements for use in mortars and concrete, and as a raw material for the production of Portland cement. However, all these applications represent a loss of the valuable phosphate content in ISSA, which is typically comparable to that of a low grade phosphate ore. ISSA has significant potential to be used as a secondary source of phosphate for the production of fertilisers and phosphoric acid. Resource efficient approaches to recycling will increasingly require phosphate recovery from ISSA, with the remaining residual fraction also considered a useful material, and therefore further research is required in this area.     

Occupational fatalities due to electrocutions in the construction industry

Introduction

Occupational fatalities due to contact with electricity account for approximately 9% of all deaths in the construction industry and is the fourth leading cause of death in this industry.

Method

Differences in the proportions of electrocutions in the construction industry are significantly different from other industries based upon the age of the worker and the source of the electricity.

Results

This study found that, in the construction industry, the proportion of occupational fatalities due to contact with electric current is significantly higher for workers in the 16 to 19 years old age group. Contact with overhead power lines occurred more frequently with younger workers, while contact with electric wiring, transformers, and related equipment was found to occur more frequently with older workers. The proportion of fatalities due to this event was also found to account for a significantly greater proportion of fatalities in the construction industry overall.

Impact on industry

The proportions of electrocution fatalities in the construction industry were found to be significantly higher for younger workers when compared to all other industries. Focusing prevention measures toward younger workers who work near overhead power lines could have a significant impact upon death rates. For older workers, the focus should be on those who work on or near transformers, electrical wiring, and components. Across the construction industry, implementation of effective lockout-tagout programs, and verification of energy isolation, can prevent approximately 125 fatalities per year in the construction industry.     

Training Captive-Bred or Translocated Animals to Avoid Predators

Abstract: Animal reintroductions and translocations are potentially important interventions to save species from extinction, but most are unsuccessful. Mortality due to predation is a principal cause of failure. Animals that have been isolated from predators, either throughout their lifetime or over evolutionary time, may no longer express appropriate antipredator behavior. For this reason, conservation biologists are beginning to include antipredator training in pre-release preparation procedures. We describe the evolutionary and ontogenetic circumstances under which antipredator behavior may degenerate or be lost, and we use principles from learning theory to predict which elements can be enhanced or recovered by training. The empirical literature demonstrates that training can improve antipredator skills, but the effectiveness of such interventions is influenced by a number of constraints. We predict that it will be easier to teach animals to cope with predators if they have experienced ontogenetic isolation than if they have undergone evolutionary isolation. Similarly, animals should learn more easily if they have been evolutionarily isolated from some rather than all predators. Training to a novel predator may be more successful if a species has effective responses to similar predators. In contrast, it may be difficult to teach proper avoidance behavior, or to introduce specialized predator-specific responses, if appropriate motor patterns are not already present. We conclude that pre-release training has the potential to enhance the expression of preexisting antipredator behavior. Potential training techniques involve classical conditioning procedures in which animals learn that model predators are predictors of aversive events. However, wildlife managers should be aware that problems, such as the emergence of inappropriate responses, may arise during such training.     

Factors Affecting Population Assessments of Desert Tortoises

Abstract: Desert tortoises have been a subject of controversy since their listing as threatened in 1990. With a wide geographic range and more living individuals than any other listed land animal, biologists have needed to detect population trends against a "noisy" background of strong annual changes. We obtained annual population estimates of desert tortoises over 6 consecutive years at a 2.59-km² plot in Joshua Tree National Park, California. Our estimates, based on weekly spring surveys, varied substantially, particularly between wet and dry years. Concurrently, we followed 10 radiotagged animals for 3 years to corroborate the surveys. Population density was determined separately for each year and for all years combined. Our best population estimate was an average of 67 adult tortoises, three times more than the density reported in a 1978 survey of the same site. Annual mortality was low ( <10%), and the animals showed extreme site fidelity. Apparent changes in population size were most strongly related to the animals' varying susceptibility to capture. In dry years, home ranges decreased, captures decreased, and effort required to find each tortoise nearly doubled. Our data confirm that tortoises are likely to be undercounted during dry years and call into question earlier studies conducted during droughts.     

Incorporating Geological Effects in Modeling of Revegetation Strategies for Salt-Affected Landscapes

The work highlights the difficulties of using standard sampling and statistical techniques to investigate regional phenomena and presents an integrated approach combining small-scale sampling with broad-scale observations to provide input into a modeling exercise. It is suggested that such approaches are vital if landscape- and regional-scale processes are to be understood and managed. The way in which the problem is perceived (holistically or piecemeal) affects the way treatments are designed and their effectiveness: past approaches have failed to integrate the various scales and processes involved. Effective solutions require an integrated holistic response.     

Sensitivity analysis of the asymptotic behavior of a model for the environmental movement of radionuclides

The asymptotic behavior of a linear compartment model for the environmental movement of radionuclides is investigated. Here, the expression asymptotic behavior is used to designate the behavior of q(t) as t → ∞, where q is the solution of a vector differential equation of the form dq/dt = h + Kq. The asymptotic behavior of such equations is described. For the model and conditions under consideration, each element of q converges monotonically to a steady-state value. A hydrologic system is defined and used to illustrate this behavior. An approach to sensitivity analysis employing Latin hypercube sampling, rank transformations and stepwise regression is presented and then applied to this system. A total of 20 independent variables is introduced and the following dependent variables are investigated for the various components of the system: amount of radionuclide present at steady state. concentration of radionuclide at steady state, and time required to reach 90% of steady state. Finally, an application of asymptotic behavior in the analysis of a hypothetical site for the geologic isolation of high-level radioactive waste is described and a brief discussion of differential sensitivity analysis is given.