Model selection and model averaging in behavioural ecology: the utility of the IT-AIC framework

Behavioural ecologists often study complex systems in which multiple hypotheses could be proposed to explain observed phenomena. For some systems, simple controlled experiments can be employed to reveal part of the complexity; often, however, observational studies that incorporate a multitude of causal factors may be the only (or preferred) avenue of study. We assess the value of recently advocated approaches to inference in both contexts. Specifically, we examine the use of information theoretic (IT) model selection using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). We find that, for simple analyses, the advantages of switching to an IT-AIC approach are likely to be slight, especially given recent emphasis on biological rather than statistical significance. By contrast, the model selection approach embodied by IT approaches offers significant advantages when applied to problems of more complex causality. Model averaging is an intuitively appealing extension to model selection. However, we were unable to demonstrate consistent improvements in prediction accuracy when using model averaging with IT-AIC; our equivocal results suggest that more research is needed on its utility. We illustrate our arguments with worked examples from behavioural experiments.     

Recycling and recovery routes for incinerated sewage sludge ash (ISSA): A review

The drivers for increasing incineration of sewage sludge and the characteristics of the resulting incinerated sewage sludge ash (ISSA) are reviewed. It is estimated that approximately 1.7 million tonnes of ISSA are produced annually world-wide and is likely to increase in the future. Although most ISSA is currently landfilled, various options have been investigated that allow recycling and beneficial resource recovery. These include the use of ISSA as a substitute for clay in sintered bricks, tiles and pavers, and as a raw material for the manufacture of lightweight aggregate. ISSA has also been used to form high density glass–ceramics. Significant research has investigated the potential use of ISSA in blended cements for use in mortars and concrete, and as a raw material for the production of Portland cement. However, all these applications represent a loss of the valuable phosphate content in ISSA, which is typically comparable to that of a low grade phosphate ore. ISSA has significant potential to be used as a secondary source of phosphate for the production of fertilisers and phosphoric acid. Resource efficient approaches to recycling will increasingly require phosphate recovery from ISSA, with the remaining residual fraction also considered a useful material, and therefore further research is required in this area.     

Urban Environmental Sustainability Metrics: A Provisional Set

Designing or transforming urban areas into 'sustainable cities' is becoming an increasingly common vision. It is, however, an unrealizable vision without agreement on how to determine whether a sustainable city vision has been fulfilled. In this paper we define a provisional set of urban environmental sustainability metrics, chosen to cover the spectrum of issues related to urban areas, and to be drawn from data that are customarily available. We devise a display technique to communicate efficiently the results of a metrics evaluation to a variety of stakeholders. The approach is illustrated by applying the metrics set to Vancouver, Canada, an urban area that has expended considerable effort toward achieving its own environmental vision.     

Are you okay to drive? Commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentrations among restaurant diners

Objective: Drink driving is widely recognized as a major road safety problem. In Australia, health promotion messages encourage monitoring the number of standard drinks consumed prior to driving. This pilot research aimed to investigate commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of diners, including intended drivers, at Sunshine Coast restaurants.

Methods: Five hundred and forty-four diners (n = 260 males) consented to participate in a brief interview and to use a breathalyzer device to measure their BAC.

Results: Forty percent of participants advised they don't drink and drive (34% of males, 45% of females; 67.25% of <17–20 years, 30.5% of 50–59 years), and of the remaining participants, 75% advised they count the number of their drinks (69% of males, 84% of females; 32% of <17–20 years, 82% of 50–59 years), while 10% of participants monitored their BAC by how they were feeling (12% of males, 6% of females). Thirty-seven percent of participants said it was easy/very easy to estimate their BAC (41% of males; 33% of females; 21% of <17–20 years, 43% of 50–59 years). The actual BAC was less than expected for 56% of participants, with one-third underestimating BAC and some intended drivers having an actual BAC in excess of the 0.05 limit.

Conclusions: Given the proportion of diners who reported they count the number of drinks, or use feelings as a way to gauge BAC, coupled with the considerable proportion who underestimated their BAC, a safer public health message is to avoid driving if you intend to drink. In addition, targeted intervention for experienced drivers (and, arguably, drinkers) appears warranted, as every participant aged less than 21 years who stated he or she would drive home indeed had a zero BAC. Interestingly every female driver who stated she would be driving home also had a legal BAC, suggesting gender-specific intervention.     

(De)legitimating extractivism: the shifting politics of social licence

ABSTRACT

Most scholarly accounts of social licence define it as a public relations strategy to legitimate resource development. In Canadian pipeline politics, however, it has had the opposite effect, crystallizing widespread concerns about industry capture of regulatory processes and affirming the democratic rights of local communities. This assessment of the concept’s critical, counter-hegemonic potential to challenge the policies, practices and logic of state-sponsored extractivist development situates social licence as a key discursive battleground in the struggle between politicization (which accents agonistic confrontation between competing alternative futures) and de-politicization (which defuses conflict and builds consensus around the perception of common interests). Frame analysis of news media and advocacy group texts is used to investigate how opponents of a pipeline project bridged the idea of social licence with movement frames concerning identity, injustice and democratic agency to transform the concept from a public relations term meant to enable corporate activity into a critical trope used to constrain it.     

Spatial Patterns and Rankings of Contaminant Concentrations in Herring Gull Eggs from 15 Sites in the Great Lakes and Connecting Channels, 1998–2002

Mean values of eight contaminants in Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) eggs were calculated for 15 Great Lakes sites for the 5 year period 1998–2002. The sites were ranked according to the concentrations of each of seven compounds relative to fish flesh criteria for the protection of piscivorous wildlife, and a single overall rank of contamination was calculated for each site. Based on this weighted ranking scheme, we found that sum PCBs, dioxin and DDE contributed the most (60.2, 30.5% and 8.5%, respectively) to the overall rankings. The weighted ranking scheme showed that eggs from Channel-Shelter Island (Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron), Strachan Island (St. Lawrence River) and Gull Island (northern Lake Michigan) ranked as the three most contaminated sites, while Agawa Rocks (eastern Lake Superior), Chantry Island (southern Lake Huron) and Port Colborne (eastern Lake Erie) ranked as the three least contaminated sites. Two of the three most contaminated sites are Areas of Concern; none of the three least contaminated sites are Areas of Concern.     

Broad range analysis of endocrine disruptors and pharmaceuticals using gas chromatography and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) have been globally detected in impacted natural waters. The detection of trace quantities of EDCs and PPCPs in the environment is of great concern since some of these compounds have known physiological responses at low concentrations. EDCs can have a wide range of polarities, acidic and basic moieties, and exist in trace quantities, which often requires numerous complex extractions, large sample collection volumes, and multiple instrumental analyses. A comprehensive method has been developed allowing for the analysis of 58 potential EDCs in various water matrices using a single solid-phase extraction (SPE) of a 1 L sample with subsequent analyses using both gas chromatography and liquid chromatography, each coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (GC–MS/MS and LC–MS/MS). Instrument detection limits ranged between 0.12–7.5 pg with corresponding method reporting limits of 1–10 ng l⁻¹ in water. Recoveries for most compounds were between 50% and 112% with good reproducibility (RSD 6–22%).