Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

Monitoring and information reporting for sustainable forest management: a regional comparison of forestry stakeholder perceptions

Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) [1992, Agenda 21: programme of action for sustainable development. United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), 3-14 June 1992. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 294pp.], the management of information has become central to the management of forest resources. In the cases of North America and Europe, similar issues have been challenging policy makers as they determine the information suitable for monitoring progress towards sustainable forest management (SFM). Using an 'online' survey, this research explored multiple stakeholder perspectives on monitoring and information reporting for SFM in different jurisdictions. The research was based on the premise that an analysis of the variation in stakeholder observations across a range of SFM 'issue areas' could provide valuable insight into the perceived need for SFM-related monitoring and information reporting in the regions of Europe, Canada and the USA. Despite the traditional limitations associated with exploratory survey research, the results indicate a demand for more information on SFM-related issues. The results also highlight the degree to which the perceptions of a sample of stakeholders can differ between Europe, USA and Canada. While these results cannot be generalized beyond the present study, they do suggest that further studies are needed to understand stakeholder perspectives on forestry-related monitoring and information reporting in different jurisdictions.     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also provides more realistic support for remediation-related decisions.     

‘Sea of blood’: the intended and unintended effects of criminalising humanitarian volunteers assisting migrants in distress at sea

This paper investigates the impact of the recent criminalisation of humanitarian actors engaged in the search for and rescue of migrants in distress in the Mediterranean Sea, focusing on the impact on the motivation and engagement of humanitarian volunteers in Greece. It argues that criminalisation is aimed at reducing search and rescue (SAR) activities and thus removing perceived ‘pull factors’ for migrants. The paper locates this phenomenon within the broader trend of policing and punishing those who assist migrants in order to deter them and prevent others from engaging in such endeavours. It finds that efforts to criminalise can have the unintended effects of encouraging and mobilising volunteers, as well as generating public attention and support for migrants. However, the negative consequences of criminalisation are far-reaching, including contributing to a high mortality rate among those crossing the Mediterranean without SAR capabilities and the heightened risk of violence against migrants and those who help them.     

Informal Institutional Responses to Government Interventions: Lessons from Madhupur National Park,Bangladesh

Madhupur National Park is renowned for severe resource ownership conflicts between ethnic communities and government authorities in Bangladesh. In this study, we applied the Institutional Analysis and Development framework to identify: (i) past and present informal institutional structures within the ethnic Garo community for land resource management; (ii) the origin of the land ownership dispute; (iii) interaction mechanisms between formal and informal institutions; and (iv) change in land management authority and informal governance structures. We identify that the informal institutions of the traditional community have undergone radical change due to government interventions with implications for the regulation of land use, informal institutional functions, and joint-decision-making. Importantly, the government’s persistent denial of the role of existing informal institutions is widening the gap between government and community actors, and driving land ownership conflicts in a cyclic way with associated natural resource degradation.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Energy supplies and future engines for land, sea, and air

The years 2012 and beyond seem likely to record major changes in energy use and power generation. The Japanese tsunami has resulted in large countries either scaling back or abolishing the future use of nuclear energy. The discovery of what seems like vast amounts of economically deliverable natural gas has many forecasting a rapid switch from coal- to gas-fired generating plants. On the other hand, environmentalists have strong objections to the production of natural gas and of petroleum by hydraulic fracturing from shale, or by extraction of heavy oil. They believe that global warming from the use of fossil fuels is now established beyond question. There has been rapid progress in the development of alternative energy supplies, particularly from on-shore and off-shore wind. Progress toward a viable future energy mix has been slowed by a U.S. energy policy that seems to many to be driven by politics. The author will review the history of power and energy to put all of the above in context and will look at possible future developments. He will propose what he believes to be an idealized energy policy that could result in an optimum system that would be arrived at democratically.