Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.     

Farm management decision and response to climate variability and change in Côte d’Ivoire

This paper investigates threats to farm management in the northern and central region of Côte d’Ivoire, with a particular focus on climate-related threats. To this end, farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies for climate change have been analyzed. The data were collected from 205 respondents by means of the Focus Groups method, and they were evaluated using a framework analysis. The main reported threats related to the implementation of farming activities are the high cost of inputs and the lack of technical support, which are followed by diseases, insects, and climate variations (scarcity of rains, strong winds, and high temperature). We find that most farmers have a strong perception of changes in climatic conditions. Their perceived impacts on the local environment through evidences like the disappearance of certain farming practices, occurrence of new insects, and the disruption of key time reference periods. Farmers mainly attempt to adapt by adjusting their agricultural calendar, adopting new short-season varieties, and using mixed cropping. We find that the most influential factors for farmers’ adaptation behavior is lack of contact with extension services and the scarcity of rainfall. Our suggestions for future agricultural policies for better adaptation to climate change are to take into account farmers’ perception, to provide suitable climate forecast, and to improve local technical support.     

New roles for farming in a differentiated countryside: the Portuguese example

Throughout Europe, the role of farming as the private provider of public goods and services increasingly valuated by society is today generally acknowledged. Furthermore, in the turn towards rural development concerns, multifunctionality as an attribute of rural space has emerged, justifying the territorial approach of farming. The situation facing the multifunctionality demand is nevertheless not the same in all European regions, which by all means is getting strengthened in the transition towards post-productivism. In some regions, there is a productivist orientation and production has a dominant economic role, while others will need to be supported on other functions to survive economically and socially, or may be best suited to environmental functions alone. The vocation of the rural territories is different, and thus also the functions they are able to support. This paper discusses the concept of multifunctionality of the rural areas, and defines a possible methodological approach towards the identification of the different types of rural areas in Europe, based on the identification of ideal types, through the analysis of selected indicators. The empirical application has been developed for the Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture, aiming at assessing the differentiated characteristics and dynamics of the Portuguese rural territory. Analyzing data from 1990 and 2000, at municipal level, three dimensions have been considered: the land cover, the agricultural sector and the rural community. Combining the three analyses, it was possible to identify different vocations of the rural space, and the role that farming could have in the future for the multifunctionality of the territory. Accordingly, the municipalities have been grouped in types, pre-defined as ideal types. This was a first attempt to understand the differentiation of the rural territory in Portugal. For decision-making it should be further developed. It nevertheless shows that there is clear differentiation concerning the possible landscape functions to be developed between regions and a possible way to assess. It also shows that a territorial approach to agriculture may be the key for the maintenance of the sector in many areas where production by itself, as it has been know until now, may be severely threatened.     

Acute toxicity tests with Daphnia magna, Americamysis bahia, Chironomus riparius and Gammarus pulex and implications of new EU requirements for the aquatic effect assessment of insecticides

Threshold concentrations for treatment related effects of 31 insecticides, as derived from aquatic micro-/mesocosm tests, were used to calibrate the predictive value of the European Tier-1 acute effect assessment on basis of laboratory toxicity tests with Daphnia magna, Chironomus spp., Americamysis bahia and Gammarus pulex. The acute Tier-1 effect assessment on basis of Daphnia (EC(50)/100) overall was protective for organophosphates, carbamates and most pyrethroids but not for neonicotinoids and the majority of insect growth regulators (IGRs) in the database. By including the 28-day water-spiked Chironomus riparius test, the effect assessment improves but selecting the lowest value on basis of the 48-h Daphnia test (EC50/100) and the 28-day Chironomus test (NOEC/10) is not fully protective for 4 out of 23 insecticide cases. An assessment on basis of G. pulex (EC(50)/100) is sufficiently protective for 15 out of 19 insecticide cases. The Tier-1 procedure on basis of acute toxicity data (EC(50)/100) for the combination of Daphnia and A. bahia and/or Chironomus (new EU dossier requirements currently under discussion) overall is protective to pulsed insecticide exposures in micro-/mesocosms. For IGRs that affect moulting, the effect assessment on basis of the 48-h Chironomus test (EC(50)/100) may not always be protective enough to replace that of the water-spiked 28-day C. riparius test (NOEC/10) because of latency of effects.     

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries.     

Thirty year monitoring of PCBs, organochlorine pesticides and tetrabromodiphenylether in eel from The Netherlands

Because of their excellent properties as a biomonitor, yellow eels (Anguilla anguilla) have been used for time-trend monitoring of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and tetrabrominated diphenylether (tetra-BDE). The program has now lasted for thirty years and has delivered valuable information on trends and spatial differences of these compounds in the delta of the rivers Rhine and Meuse and other Dutch canals, rivers and lakes. Specific local PCB, HCH and dieldrin contaminations were identified. Temporal trends show a slow decrease of PCB concentrations since 1977. Eels from the rivers Rhine and Meuse still exceed present European maximum residue limits for dioxin-like PCBs. Apart from some exceptions, OCP and tetra-BDE concentrations have also decreased, and more than those of PCBs. Fat contents of eel have decreased from an average of 21 to ca. 13%. This decrease in fat contents, coincides with the strong reduction of the European eel stock.     

Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.     

A database for integrated assessment of European agricultural systems

A major bottleneck for data-based policy making is that data sources are collected, managed, and distributed by different institutions, residing in different locations, resulting in conceptual and practical problems. The use of dispersed data for agricultural systems research requires the integration of data sources, which means to ensure consistency in data interpretations, units, spatial and temporal scales, to respect legal regulations of privacy, ownership and copyright, and to enable easy dissemination of data. This paper describes the SEAMLESS integrated database on European agricultural systems. It contains data on cropping patterns, production, farm structural data, soil and climate conditions, current agricultural management and policy information. To arrive at one integrated database, a shared ontology was developed according to a collaborative process, which facilitates interdisciplinary research. The paper details this process, which can be re-used in other research projects for integrating data sources.